In the first decade of real consumerism, the 1990s, the Indian consumer was like a child, running amok amidst a playground full of noise, colour, and choice, wanting everything in the shop window. Today, the consumer is like an awkward teenager, in the process of making the transition to a more restrained, more mature future, taking a long, hard look at what lies outside the window.

All this while, marketers, and consumers have defined their own and collective well-being in terms of direct consumption of products, as in more tea/soap/washing powder consumed year-on-year, and qualitatively, the upgrade to higher priced goods-never mind that they all fulfill the same need. As consumers-and this will be more true in urban areas-fathom and finally emerge from the orgy of spending and profligate consumerism, consumption per se will cease to be an end in itself. Consumers will start asking whether the new markets and products have created a better quality of life. There are already an embarrassment of nearly 20 shampoo brands: how many more do you need, anyway? At some point, the consumer will say, "enough already!" How much shampoo can you sell really in a country where more than half the population does not have access to proper bathroom facilities.

Clearly, a new variety of consumer needs will emerge. Like clean cities. Parks. Playgrounds. Better roads. Consumers will demand all this and civic authorities will provide these as best as they can. And yes, it will cost more money, which will come, from the consumer, who will increasingly not crib paying for utilities that deliver a better quality of life.

Guaranteed 24-hour power supply, or your money back! Bottled water-quality water on the tap! A healthcare, even education system that delivers, for a just price. All this can't be met by government alone. Private businesses have to step-in, much like the Rs 73,000-crore healthcare opportunity that has already roped in names like Reliance, Aditya Birla, Apollo, and Max.

Consumption trends will be driven primarily by the young and the restless. Deeper media penetration, primarily cable and satellite television, rising income levels and distribution-reach in rural India, coupled with urbanisation, will blur the psychological urban-rural divide. Expect to see the rural/urban consumer segmentation near redundant for very many product categories.

Businesses, even government, will also increasingly face an activist consumer, who is not just aware about her rights but is willing to go that extra mile in getting it. Businesses and governments will not just have to be more transparent but also empathise-or seen to be empathising-with consumer needs.

The Indian consumer is finally putting the subservience of the British rule behind her. She is finally more honest of her own identity and needs. The dichotomy that many marketers discovered at their peril-consumer opinions expressed are at variance from the opinions they held-will gradually fade away. The Indian consumer will be as real as you see. Or hear.

The Consumer Of The Future

URBAN She is value-conscious, as ever, but also includes the brand in her value metrics. She is willing to pay a premium for the intangible, as long as the marketer can justify that it helps manage her life better. She buys virtually everything through a debit or credit card, largely at speciality retailers. She invests heavily on health/house/life insurance premiums, and lives on hope built on the foundation of a professional education, an individualistic but family-rooted outlook, and a double-income household. She prefers to listen to her kind of music on fm radio, from any one of three stations in its genre within the city's 20-odd channels, while tuning to another for traffic updates on her drive to work and back. At home it is either news on the direct-to-home-enabled television or that sizzling sex-thriller late at night. She gives in to the only child's demand for a holiday abroad, even while factoring in the upgrade to the C-class car next summer.

RURAL She now buys a 200-ml shampoo bottle, the one that was advertised during last night's showing of Lagaan on Star. She still dances when it rains, but the 24-hour paid electricity and a well-serviced tube well means the fields are well-irrigated even when her Gods play truant. Her two teenaged children go to a school in a nearby town, not in a tractor any more but that multi-utility vehicle the family bought two years ago. They return only late evening after computer lessons. Though she still goes to the weekly haat to pick up her vegetables and dry rations, what she looks forward, possibly twice a year, is that 100 km drive to the big city to buy apparel, audio cassettes of her favourite movies, and of course, that roller-coaster ride at the amusement park.

-Shailesh Dobhal