The year
2005 marks the end of the first decade of the digital network. And
what a ride it has been! From the early days of the Mosaic web browser
and excruciatingly slow dial-up connections, we now have over 600
million internet users, more than a billion wireless devices and
blazingly fast internet connections. The internet has become an
integral part of our lives. It is difficult to imagine how we searched
for information before Google, shopped before Amazon.com, communicated
before e-mail, chatted before instant messaging, and traded collectibles
before eBay. The mobile, digital, networked world has transformed
how we work, shop, play and learn. To varying degrees, we have embraced
a new networked lifestyle.
While these developments have been profound,
they pale in comparison to what lies ahead. We have taken but a
few faltering steps in our journey towards a true networked lifestyle.
As the relentless march of semi-conductor, software, networking
and computer technologies continues, we will see developments over
the next decade that we find hard to imagine today. Our lives will
be transformed to such a degree that the networked lifestyle in
the year 2020 will sound like science fiction. But the science fiction
of today may well be the technological reality of tomorrow. As the
famous science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke noted: "Any
sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
Imagine presenting a visitor from 1970 with a high-speed wireless
multimedia phone with full-motion video and a camera. Or imagine
showing a visitor from the 19th century a commercial airliner that
can fly 350 people, 10,000 miles in the air. Similarly, the visions
of the future may sound fantastic and unbelievable today, but they
may well become as commonplace as web browsing and wireless phones
are today.
So, what will the networked lifestyle in 2020
look like? To think about the lifestyle of the future, let us think
about the key activities that define our lives. We like to communicate.
We like to be entertained. We like to shop. And we need to learn.
So, let us fast-forward to 2020 and see how these activities will
be transformed by the network and digital technology. Incidentally,
the projections that I am making are based more on fact than on
fantasy. Many of the technologies that will enable the networked
lifestyle of 2020 already exist in crude form in the laboratories
of leading technology and media companies. Some early examples of
the applications I present are also beginning to emerge in early
versions. So, fasten your seatbelts and come with me as we take
a flight of fancy into the future.
By 2020, interactive multimedia will evolve
into participative media-entertainment experiences designed by consumers,
where consumers will become an integral part of immersive entertainment
experiences. Today, we have 'video-on-demand' where you can order
any movie you want from your cable or satellite company. By 2020,
this idea will have evolved to multisensory 'experiences-on-demand'.
We will be able to act out any fantasy in any place, and at any
time of our choosing. Clad in full-body suits with force-feedback
sensors and virtual-reality headsets, we will be able to walk the
hallways of Hogwarts instead of merely watching Harry Potter on
a screen. We will be able to visit the Bahamas or walk on the Great
Wall of China, with sights, sounds, even smells that will create
immersive, multisensory experiences. And yes, we will be able to
have extremely realistic 'cybersex' with real people or with virtual
people of our choosing over a network. In fact, the 'real thing'
may be a poor substitute for virtual sex for many people, without
all the complications of real relationships!
The mobile, digital, networked world has
transformed how we work, shop, play and learn. To varying degrees,
we have embraced a new networked lifestyle |
Interactive games will become so real that the
distinction between virtual reality and actual reality will become
blurred. Global virtual communities of gamers will evolve into parallel
'worlds', with distinct cultures, rules for membership and codes
of conduct. We may spend a significant amount of our lives in these
virtual gaming communities, and we may identify ourselves in terms
of our affiliation and membership in these communities. Digital
animation will advance to the point that we will not be able to
distinguish between computer-generated characters and real actors.
We will be able to insert any digital actor into any movie, and
have them reproduce the emotions, mannerisms and behaviours of actors
long dead. We may even be able to insert ourselves into a movie
and arrange the script to produce the emotions that we would like.
Music will become 'mood-aware'. As we move from room to room and
mood to mood in our homes, our music systems will sense our feelings
and create music that not only is customised to our preferences,
but also to our mood. Entertainment experiences will become very
personal, deeply immersive and very addictive.
The classroom in 2020 will be global, virtual
and personalised. The university and the school will come into our
homes. Advanced telepresence will allow us to experience learning
as if we were participants, not mere observers. No longer will we
need to study the history of Egypt or Mesopotamia in words and pictures.
We will be able to, as the song goes, 'Walk Like An Egyptian'. Museums
will be interactive and immersive-we will be able to have conversations
with people from ancient civilisations, walk inside ancient monuments,
and even participate in battles of times past.
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In 2020, learning will be a lifelong endeavour,
freed from constraints of time, space, and certification. Physical
presence on campus will become unimportant, which will allow
'virtual campuses' to become truly global |
We will learn biology from the perspective of
the ant, learn oceanography by diving deep below a virtual ocean,
and visualise space by floating weightlessly on a spaceship. Surgeons
will learn surgery by performing remote surgery on virtual patients,
just as pilots today learn to fly on simulators. Simulations will
become an important mode of learning, especially for disciplines
that emphasise learning by doing. Each of us will have our own personal
'teacher bot'-a virtual teacher who will understand our personal
learning needs, and will constantly assemble material that we should
be learning in school or on the job. Learning will be a lifelong
endeavour, freed from the constraints of time, space, and certification.
Universities will largely serve as content-creation hubs and data
centres. Physical presence on campus will become less important,
which will allow 'virtual campuses' to become truly global. Even
the essential social experiences on campus-parties, dating and casual
conversation-will move to cyber-communities that may be spread across
the world. Language will be no barrier to learning because real-time
simultaneous translation will have been perfected. Professors and
teachers will no longer be purveyors of knowledge. Rather, they
will act as movie directors-assembling content and learning experiences
that students can assemble to create a personalised learning agenda.
By 2020, digital convergence will have proceeded
to the point where communication will become independent of location,
device, platform or network. Artificial distinctions between wired
and wireless devices, voice and data, computers and phones, or satellite
and terrestrial channels will disappear in an all EOIP (everything
over internet protocol). Converged devices and converged networks
will allow us to have access to personalised, high-speed multimedia
communications wherever we might be. Mobility will mean much more
than being able to take a device with us wherever we go. Instead,
we will be able to transport the entire context of our communications-our
applications, our data, our personal preferences and our digital
persona-wherever we go. Instead of reaching a device with a phone
number, we will be able to reach people with one universal number.
Communications will become context-aware and mood-aware. Communication
devices will know where we are, what we are doing and how we are
feeling. Based on this, the devices will know who should be able
to reach us and what mode of communication we would prefer. Personal
communication devices will become so small and so portable that
we will wear them on our person. For people who want to be truly
connected all the time, it will be possible to get implants that
will embed communication devices in our ears. Communication devices
will become intelligent enough to recognise us and even recognise
the emotions and feelings in our voice. Keyboards will be a thing
of the past, because we will talk to communication devices and computers.
It will be possible to carry out a casual conversation with your
computer, asking the computer to perform routine tasks, prioritise
your schedule and search for information on demand.
Communications will become context-aware
and mood-aware. Communication devices will know where we are,
what we are doing, and how we are feeling |
Our ideal shopping experience is a store where
you are greeted personally by a salesperson who knows you by name,
knows your preferences, knows what you are looking for, and can
even anticipate what you might like even if you don't know that
you are looking for it. Today, the closest we can come to this experience
is to have a personal shopper assist you with shopping in a department
store. By 2020, we will all have our own "personal shop bots"-our
agents who will search, evaluate, and bargain for us. Our routine
shopping tasks like buying groceries will be completely automated,
because every item in our pantry and our refrigerator will announce
its presence through RFID (radio frequency id) devices. We will
authorise our supermarket to continually monitor the inventory of
groceries and household supplies, and to automatically replenish
our paper towels or our milk before we run out.
Promotional offers will be highly personalised,
and we may initiate requests for promotional offers by instructing
our shop bots to go find the best deal for the products and services
that we need. Will we still visit stores? Indeed we will, because
shopping is a pleasurable experience. But stores will focus on marketing
'experiences' rather than products. The supermarket of the future
will no longer need to stack paper towels and cleaning supplies-rather,
they will focus on displaying products with sensory appeal, like
ready-to-eat meals and fresh bakery products.
Neils Bohr, the famous physicist, observed:
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
It is almost impossible to predict ways in which the network and
society will evolve over the next 15 years. And as we look back
at similar predictions made in the past, the track record of futurists
is highly dubious. So you should take all my predictions with a
pinch of salt. As Richard Bach's book, Illusions, says on the last
page: "Everything in this book might be wrong." While
this might well be the case with my flight into the future, I hope
it was a fun and somewhat scary ride nevertheless.
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