What
a year for business 2004 has turned out to be! And what a year for
business news it has turned out to be! In many ways, the 12 months
that have passed have been a lesson for futurists of all hues, a
classification that I think includes journalists. Here is just a
sampling of things no one could have predicted 12 months ago:
- That a new Congress-led government would
come to power
- That the communist parties would witness
a revival of their fortunes and actually become strong enough
to support the government from outside
- That the process of economic reform would
go on despite this
- That the markets would crash (and how!)
and boom (and how!) again
- That foreign portfolio investors would pump
in an amount in excess of $8 billion (Rs 35,200 crore) into the
Indian market
- That the Birlas would be embroiled in a
messy court battle; that the Brothers Ambani would fall out; and
that T.P.G. Nambiar would drag son-in-law Rajeev Chandrasekhar
to court
If there is a moral to it all, it is that predicting
the short-term future is well nigh impossible.
That brings me to the theme of the issue you
hold in your hands: India in 2020. And it brings me to the secret
of the science of futurism. While it is impossible to predict the
short-term future, it is well within the realm of the possible to
envisage the long-term one. That is what we have got 25 CEOs and
thought leaders to do. Among the perspectives of the future you
will find in this issue are Y.C. Deveshwar, Chairman, ITC, the company
whose e-Choupal initiative has set a global benchmark in the engagement
of rural communities, writing on creating wealth in villages; K.V.
Kamath, CEO, ICICI Bank, the company with the highest proportion
of women in senior managerial positions in India, on the growing
power of women in the workplace; and Roopa Purushothaman, the young
Goldman Sachs economist whose report on emerging powerhouses (Brazil,
Russia, India, China, or BRICs) has received as much notice as a
bestseller, writing on India's future place in the global economy.
That's just a sampling; there are 22 more perspectives, each on
an equally stimulating topic.
The one thing that makes me exceedingly happy
is the fact that all columnists strike a very positive note about
India's future. Anand Mahindra, the Vice Chairman of Mahindra &
Mahindra, actually offers an engaging argument as to why India will
become a fount of innovation or "be condemned to creativity"
as he calls it. Indeed, if there is one message I would like to
take away from 2004, it is that India Inc. has moved out of its
'whining mode' into a winning one: in the past 12 months, it has
taken a change in regime, a market crash, the looming threat of
a reform-blockade by the communists, and a spike in global oil prices
in its stride, shrugged them off, and continued to register higher
sales and return higher profits. The year ahead may bring bigger
challenges, but surely, this bring-them-on attitude will see Indian
industry prevail. As always, your magazine will be there to cover
these happenings.
Wish you a Prosperous New Year.
Aroon Purie
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