Realism rules. India Inc. may be celebrating the formation of the new government--witness the 150-point surge in the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index on March 2, 1998, in anticipation of a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition--but its expectations are tempered with a strong awareness of the problems that Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee will face. For, every decision of the new government--from finalising the agenda of economic reforms to building a team whose members share and implement that agenda--will require him to balance the conflicting needs of his allies, who range between the left and the right extremes of the political spectrum.

The imperatives of consensus, therefore, will manacle the delivery process, as a BT-AIMS poll of 46 CEOs across five metropolises concludes. Thus, even on issues like further delicensing and disinvestment in public sector enterprises, on which the BJP's stand has consistently been pro-reform, business is apprehensive. Only 39 per cent of the CEOs polled feel that the party will be able to speed up disinvestment and delicensing.

Their rationale: if politics--and not the economy--dominates the national agenda, politically sensitive reforms are bound to be shelved. Says Rajesh Shah, 46, the CEO of the Rs 919.95-crore Mukand: "The economy should be the most important item on the agenda for the new government. But that's not the case at the moment." Nor has the reforms record of the United Front coalition enthused business: over 56 per cent feel that the effect of the BJP's allies on the government will be detrimental, versus the 21 per cent who hope that the party will be able to neutralise pressures from its partners. Corporate India's faith in coalitions doesn't run deep.

However, business remains optimistic about the BJP's ability to cruise ahead with infrastructure reforms, over which political parties are single-mindedly united. Over 60 per cent of CEOs are sure of a BJP-led government's ability to speed up infrastructure growth. About the same percentage of respondents are certain that the party will be able to ensure a level playing field for domestic industry. Although they believe that the promise was part of the usual pre-poll rhetoric, many expect to find this demand being entertained purely on what they feel is the merit of the idea. Avers Jamshyd Godrej, 47, the CEO of the Rs 635.14-crore Godrej & Boyce: "We don't want protection. All we are asking for is the removal of the policy-induced bias against domestic industry. Economic policies should, ideally, be neutral. If there has to be a bias, it should be in favour of domestic industry."

On the status of the country's agreement with the World Trade Organisation, the verdict seems supportive of the BJP's stand. For, almost 74 per cent of the CEOs believe that the party should review the commitments that were made to the world's apex trade body by the previous government. Against this backdrop, the corporates' charter for the BJP-led government is fairly predictable: infrastructure and foreign investment top the list, followed by reforms in public expenditure, and the strengthening of the financial system. But only if the Vajpayee Administration finally brings to an end the uncertainty that business has been complaining of will it truly have met CEO India's real expectation: a Centre that holds, without letting things fall apart.

Issue Contents  Write to us   Subscriptions