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The Middle Path

The Indian middle class is seen as the driving force behind the retail revolution in the country as well as its future economic growth. Incidentally, this group, along with its counterparts in China, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies, has outscored a host of who's who in the global arena in a list of Top 50 People Who Matter published by Fortune. A look at how the middle class has evolved over time.

He wears Levi's and Nike, eats at McDonald's or Pizza Hut, shops in malls full of Benetton, Reebok, Lacoste and Adidas, and catches up with friends in the evening at a pub. Unless you live under a rock, you've probably heard about the explosive growth of Indian middle class and he is a part of this buoyant group. The new India is a very different place. Signs of a transformation in the lifestyle, spending habits and the mentality of an entire class are etched into the landscape - busy roads, neon lights, huge billboards and hordes of frenzied shoppers.

Large malls have sprung up in major cities overnight. Department stores and specialty shops including the world's leading brands are common and cater to the new middle class. The economic boom has created a middle class of between 50 and 300 million people, depending upon the criteria, with 200 million the most commonly quoted figure. Nevertheless, a sizeable portion of India's one billion people can afford to buy imported products including high quality imported fruit. For US and other European countries companies, doing business in India is easier than in some countries since most Indians now spend a huge amount of their earnings in shopping and recreational activities.

The most successful new industry to emerge from this growth was the software industry, largely because the government absent-mindedly forgot to interfere in what was a new sector. Had the Indian bureaucracy become involved the industry would have been stifled to death. New pioneering companies such as Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services began selling software solutions to American and European firms. As the orders grew, they became software giants. In fact, the industry as a whole grew by 50 per cent a year, prompting Bill Gates to predict, "India is likely to be the next software superpower". By 2000 more than 200 of the Fortune 1000 companies were outsourcing their software requirements to India rather than handling them in-house.

At the same time another boom occurred - the call centre business that is prising white-collar jobs away from America and Britain. As the country's economy booms, financial analysts McKinsey predict that by 2008 IT services and back-office work will swell fivefold to a $57 billion (Rs 2,67,900 crore) annual export industry employing four million people and accounting for 7 per cent of India's GDP.

Unprecedented levels of disposable incomes are fuelling the retail boom. Consumer spending has grown at an average of 12 per cent a year over the past decade. But there are two other reasons for the explosion in consumer spending. First, the younger generation wants the good life. Second, shopping is finally therapy instead of the retail purgatory it used to be in the days when there was absence of choice.

While China garnered much of the press in the beginning, India has emerged as a country with perhaps greater potential than China for several reasons. These include its democracy, demographic profile (India has a much younger population), its sheer population numbers and for American companies, the fact that most people in India speak English making marketing of goods & services easier.

 

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