PICTURE SPEAK

Previous Mood of the Nation covers

Governments once elected tend to take their electorate for granted. From time to time they need to be reminded that people pay attention to what they do and do not do. When we began our six-monthly Mood of the Nation Opinion Poll in January 2001, the idea was to track public opinion and political shifts. Four years on, it would be fair to say that the poll has also become a fairly accurate barometer of a government's performance, a reminder to those in power that the people are watching.

Opinion polls have taken a knock in recent months, following the unexpected fall of the NDA government in the 2004 general elections. That is mainly because seat predictions can be a tricky business in our multi-party parliamentary system. But opinion polls are not only about seat predictions. They capture what the man on the street is thinking, how opinions are being shaped on the ground. All governments have mechanisms to do the same but it is not certain how many tap them regularly. Because sometimes the news may not be what the government wants to hear.

The India Today-AC Nielsen-ORG-MARG Mood of the Nation Poll conducted every six months presents a far more objective picture. Our latest poll sampled more than 11,000 people in 98 parliamentary constituencies over three weeks. The questions put to them centred on specific political issues, more general ones around leadership and also sought their opinion and predictions for 2005 in other fields. The poll indicates an India unimpressed with the UPA (though most believe it will last its full five-year term) and more detached from previously emotive questions like Hindutva or war with Pakistan.

Less than a year after being voted out of power, A.B. Vajpayee is surprisingly still considered the best candidate for prime minister (31 per cent) over both Sonia Gandhi (27 per cent) and incumbent Manmohan Singh (14 per cent). Despite King Khan, the Big B still rules: Amitabh Bachchan shares the platform with Shah Rukh Khan as the poll's No. 1 pick for Bollywood hero of the year. Sourav Ganguly, controversial and colourful with a string of losses in the season, remains the popular choice as India captain: 47 per cent say he should continue to hold the job in 2005.

Our poll reflects an India that knows its mind and knows what it wants. The rainbow coalition in power should worry: 62 per cent believe that the quality of their life has not changed and 59 per cent say that the rich have benefited most from economic reforms. It is an indictment of a Government that claimed to speak for the common man. The message to the UPA is clear: act now or face the music.

(Aroon Purie)

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