This is the kind of irony that defines Bihar politics, where one man's hero is another's villain. In February, posters in rural Bihar morphed the pictures of Keanu Reeves as Neo from the sci-fi flick The Matrix with those of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. Only, the new political matrix threw Lalu out of power. The posters quickly became the targets of derisive jokes. But the real life Neo pulled off yet another political stunt to change the matrix. Less than 90 days after the debacle, Neo is smiling from the posters once again.

Last week, as NDA leaders convinced 22 of the 29 MLAs (including four in various jails) from Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP to merge with the Janata Dal (United), Lalu swung into action. Having learnt about the coup-in-waiting accidentally from an RJD worker in Ranchi, he tipped off Governor Buta Singh before rushing to Delhi, where he leveraged the RJD's 25 MP support to the UPA Government.

PICTURE SPEAK
BAD POSTURING: While Lalu's (left) antics have left Manmohan (above) disturbed, it is his past support for the Congress and good rapport with Sonia that have stood him in good stead

His first port of call was the CPI(M), where he convinced the leaders of the dangers of a saffron alliance coming to power in Bihar. While CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat and Politburo member Sitaram Yechuri backed Lalu's demands to dismantle the House, the DMK, which has always opposed President's rule, took shelter in the legal nicety that as there was no government in place it wouldn't be setting a precedent. Having convinced the principal players, Lalu presented the Congress with a mathematical fait accompli. Conceding, the Congress roped in the governor to report "massive horse-trading" and to advise that the stables be bolted.

Even as the governor rushed to Delhi, the NDA chieftains sat in a five-star hotel preparing quotes and comments for the press and planning to form the government in Patna. JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar was to stake claim on May 23 with the support of 127 MLAs (in the 243-member House). This, according to BJP leader S.K. Modi, panicked Lalu, Paswan and Buta Singh, who had earlier stonewalled all attempts to form a government.

But the Congress, wary of repeating a Jharkhand, lost no time in getting the governor to play ball. It isn't that the Congress is shy of imposing President's rule. In Independent India, state assemblies have been put under President's rule 107 times, and in 77 cases the Congress has headed the government at the Centre. In 39 of the 77 instances, President's rule has been imposed on the opposition regime. So on May 22, as members of the UPA coalition broke bread at an anniversary function, Lalu, supported by friend Sharad Pawar, managed to have the Cabinet recommend the dissolution of the Bihar Assembly.

RAM VILAS PASWAN

From Hero to Zero   PICTURE SPEAK OUT OF STEP: Paswan has lost the mandate due to his adamancy; rebel LJP MLAs Till three months ago, he was hailed as a hero who, without winning enough seats in the assembly polls, claimed to have liberated Bihar from the 15-year-long Lalu-Rabri "misrule" and to have brought the state under Central rule to clean, what he called, "the garbage". But last week, the UPA Government at the Centre dissolved the yet to be constituted Assembly, foisting another election on the state in a bid to prevent the Nitish Kumar-led NDA from forming the government after Ram Vilas Paswan's obduracy defied all efforts to usher in a UPA regime. Overnight, the Lok Janshakti Party turned from hero to zero. "Paswan showed disrespect for people's verdict which was in favour of anti-RJD forces," says Bihar LJP chief Narendra Singh. "People will not forgive him for his adamant stand on government formation." With just 29 LJP MLAs, Paswan had taken sadistic pleasure in asserting that he alone held the "key" to government formation, maintaining that he would neither go with the Lalu's RJD, nor with the "communal" BJP. He was right: neither the Lalu-led UPA, nor the Kumar-led NDA had the numbers to form a government. But fed up with his individualistic politics which held the political process to ransom, 17 of his 29 MLAs rebelled by pledging support to Kumar, while others threatened to do the same to split the party. Midway, meanwhile, four MLAs were hijacked by don-turned-LJP MP Surajbhan Singh. The defection and captivity drama coincided with LJP Secretary-General Nagmani resigning from the post and the party. A majority of the upper caste MLAs who veered towards the JD(U) felt that they had won on anti-Lalu slogans and so had to help form a non-RJD, non-Congress government. This put Paswan, a Union minister, and the UPA Government in a precarious position. Lalu, the Congress and the Left did not want the JD(U)-BJP combine to come to power due to Paswan's follies. They were also upset over Paswan's wielding of the "key" to form a government. But after losing the key to rebels, Paswan agreed to form a government with a Muslim chief minister and with RJD support. He was the same man who had said, "Lalu means RJD. RJD means Lalu. I will not tie up with the RJD. That is final." As the fractured mandate cornered Lalu, it was the culmination of a prolonged war that Kumar and BJP's Sushil Kumar Modi had waged to end the "jungle raj". But when the time came to provide an alternative, Paswan proved a fly in the ointment. His stubbornness embarrassed the UPA and Sonia Gandhi. "If there is anyone," said Lalu, "who is responsible for pushing the state to President's rule, it is Paswan. Unka to dimag hi kaam nahi kar raha hai (his mind is not working)." Kumar and Modi too dubbed him the king of confusion. Taking advantage of the rebellion in the LJP, Lalu pressured the UPA to dissolve the House. An unhappy Paswan held Lalu responsible, saying the railway minister had "rejected" all his proposals to form a secular government headed by a member of the minority community. "Lalu himself wanted the dissolution of the Assembly because he was feeling uneasy out of power." Paswan may be down, he is not out, having announced nationwide Dalit-Muslim rallies to convince everyone he is not the villain. It may be too late. By Farzand Ahmed

The demise of the yet-to-be-constituted Assembly and another round of elections shocked the people. Terming the decision "unconstitutional" and an insult to the people's verdict-which was clearly against the RJD-Congress combine-they responded to the Bihar bandh called by the NDA on May 24. The bandh was to press the Centre and President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam to recall Buta Singh who had acted as "an agent of Lalu and the Congress".

When BJP leader L.K. Advani termed the move "murder of democracy" reminiscent of the Emergency days, he may have been melodramatic, but the process of democratic government formation had indeed been throttled. To start with, there was no attempt to form a government. There may have been a debate on which party or formation to invite-the single largest party or the single largest pre-poll alliance-but there was no action at all. Political arithmetic necessitated co-opting the groups outside the formation, and hence both the groups tried to woo Paswan who held on to an impractical solution. The merger of the LJP with JD(U) smelled of a quid pro quo, but in reality both were natural allies with as many as 22 of the 29 LJP MLAs winning against RJD candidates. So there is merit in the NDA argument that they were being true to their anti-Lalu mandate by joining hands with the JD(U). It is not as if the RJD didn't try to break the LJP. The NDA claims that the RJD had managed to draw the support of nearly 12 LJP MLAs.

LALU RAJ: THE POWER OF 25 Lalu Prasad Yadav prevailed on the UPA Government to dissolve the Bihar Assembly on May 23, 2005 aware of the power of his 25 MPs in the disparate coalition. It isn't the first time that he has flexed his muscles to get the UPA to do his bidding.

TAINTED MOVE As coalition prime minister, Manmohan Singh was robbed of the right to refuse while choosing his team. Despite abhorring corruption and criminality, Mr Clean had to put up with four tainted ministers on Lalu's insistence. TRANSFER TANTRUM Lalu ensured the transfer of the district magistrates of Siwan and Gopalganj who had taken on Mohammed Shahabuddin and Sadhu Yadav. He also got in Arun Pathak, former Bihar chief secretary, as adviser to Governor Buta Singh. DELAYING TACTICS The Centre is yet to appoint a chief justice to the Patna High Court despite the fact that the post has been vacant since July last year and even after the collegium of judges has filed its recommendations to the Law Ministry. COVERT ACTION Serving and senior IAS officer L.V. Saptharishi openly attacked a constitutional authority, namely the Election Commission. Yet, there has been no action against him, thanks to the pressure from the Lalu camp.

Predictably, the Opposition, which had hoped to do a Jharkhand on the UPA and felt cheated after its near success in Patna, cried foul as it found the referee moving the goalposts. Said BJP Vice-President M. Venkaiah Naidu: "It is not rashtrapati raj. It is Rabri-pati raj." But Lalu blamed Paswan-who "treated me as an untouchable" after the elections-and the NDA-which treated the MLAs like cattle and indulged in horse-trading to cobble together a government-for the action. He also alleged that four LJP MLAs were hijacked by don-turned-LJP MP Surajbhan Singh before being held captive by the NDA in Jharkhand. Typically, he resorted to rhetoric to push his case. "Kya hum desh ke samvidhan ko halal hone dete (Should we have allowed the Constitution to be subverted)?" he said.

As of May 23, Lalu has managed to import his brand of politics to Delhi. It is not just the issue of tainted ministers but also the lack of governance that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is concerned about. For instance, although the Railways requires serious reforms-both in fiscal and safety management-Lalu, busy electioneering in Bihar, thwarted the reforms when the Rail budget was being authored in the PMO.

PICTURE SPEAK

PEEVED: (From left) Kumar, George Fernandes and A.B. Vajpayee

The imposition of President's rule is not the first time that the RJD chief has forced the Government to have his way. It was on his insistence that the governor stalled any attempts at government formation. As part of the coalition government at the Centre, Lalu has flexed his muscles right from the beginning, be it his insistence on cushy portfolios, including power-which he was denied and for which he was compensated with the independent Company Affairs Ministry-or the inclusion of tainted ministers like Taslimuddin in the Cabinet.

This may have to do with the chemistry between him and Congress President Sonia Gandhi. After all, Lalu was among the first and the most vociferous supporters of Sonia when the Opposition labelled her a foreigner. In 1999, the Congress backed Lalu when the NDA government at the Centre imposed President's rule and made it clear that the party, which was in a majority in the Rajya Sabha, would not support it. The Home Ministry, under L.K. Advani, was forced to withdraw the rule. Then came the 2000 polls. When Nitish Kumar resigned fearing he would not be able to prove his majority, the Congress extended support to the Rabri Devi government.

Lalu also shares a good rapport with Congress leader Ahmed Patel, although Manmohan is wary of the Yadav brand of politics, including dramatic like the ones made at Vadodara or having an IAS officer level charges against the Election Commission in an effort to upbraid the NDA.

INTERVIEW | LALU PRASAD YADAV

"What does Paswan have to say now? I am back. I will settle scores." Rashtriya Janata Dal chief and Union Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav welcomed the dissolution of Bihar Assembly in an interview with Special Correspondent Sanjay Kumar Jha. Excerpts: Q. What is your reaction to the dissolution of the Bihar Assembly? A. I welcome the dissolution since it is needed to uphold the sanctity of parliamentary democracy. I favour early polls so that a popular government can take office. Q. Wasn't it a hasty decision? A. The NDA leaders had engineered a split in the LJP by luring its 19 legislators. They were given cash and diamond rings and promised ministries in the new government. Had the NDA been allowed to form a government, it would have been a betrayal of the people's mandate. Q. The Opposition leaders are accusing the UPA Government of misusing power. A. To kya hum samvidhan ko halal hone dete? Sonepur ka mela ho gaya. Gai-bail sab bik gaye. (Does it mean we should have allowed the subversion of the Constitution? It was like the Sonepur fair where the cows and bulls were being sold.) The NDA leaders indulged in horse-trading to form a government in Jharkhand. They wanted to do the same in Bihar. Q. Do you favour the demands of the NDA leaders and A.B. Vajpayee to have early elections? A. I want early elections in the state more than Vajpayeeji. Q. What of the first-time MLAs? A. It was very unfortunate that the legislators could not attend even a single session and had to do without salaries and perks. Q. What will be your poll strategy? Will you join hands with the LJP? A. Humko to achhoot bana diya gaya tha. Ab kahan hain voh? Chabi lekar sab bhag gaye. (Paswan had declared us untouchables. What does he have to say now? His MLAs have betrayed him and run away). I am back now. I will settle scores. Q. Who was responsible for the imposition of President's rule? A. We had staked claim to form a popular government but the NDA went out of its way to ensure that the RJD was not invited. So the NDA is responsible for President's rule. The people of Bihar will mete out justice to the communal forces in the coming elections. Q. Will you give more seats to allies like the Congress? A. We made mistakes in the previous elections but they will not be repeated. We will give more seats to both the Congress and the left parties. Q. Would you like to predict the result of the next elections? A. Why not? The UPA will form the next government in Bihar.

When Lalu didn't find support from 10 Janpath or the apparatchiks, he resorted to the time-tested leverage game. Parading his 24 MPs before Manmohan, he claimed that he had been isolated: "Hum alag thalag ho gayen hain". The prime minister lectured him on the sanctity of constitutional authorities but made concessions. A day later, Lalu's chosen man Arun Pathak (former chief secretary of Bihar) was appointed adviser to the governor, and two outstanding officers-Siwan District Magistrate (DM) C.K. Anil, who had cracked down against powerful RJD MP Mohammed Shahabuddin, and Gopalganj DM K.K. Pathak, who had externed Rabri's MP brother Sadhu Yadav-were transferred.

The problem is not that Lalu has got his way, but that he is unlikely to be satisfied. Although he has managed to stay on in the Cabinet despite chargesheets against him (in the very cases in which he had to resign as chief minister in 1997), he believes the Congress owes him more. For the past few months, Lalu had been going through a rough patch-he was defeated in the February polls and was ostracised by other parties and even independents who refused to help him and his wife Rabri Devi form the government. But last week's events have altered the picture. Now that the Congress' strategy to size him down by aligning with Paswan has come a cropper and the threat of an NDA front coming to power in Bihar is real, he will leverage his position further.

THE MAIN PLAYERS

LALU PRASAD YADAV Gainer He ruled Bihar for 15 years but could not return to power despite support from the Congress, CPI(M), BSP and others. Lalu hopes to gain as the polls will be held under a friendly Governor Buta Singh and the UPA Government, of which he is a part. He can also win back the Dalits and Muslims who had supported LJP's Ram Vilas Paswan. But the non-Yadav backwards and upper castes may oppose him. RAM VILAS PASWAN Loser Paswan's bid to stonewall the formation of government by refusing to go either with the RJD or the BJP cost him dearly as a majority of his MLAs, eager to side with Nitish Kumar, rebelled. His assertion that he alone had the key to government formation did not go down well with the people or Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. Paswan forgot that despite his differences with Lalu, the RJD is critical for the UPA. NITISH KUMAR Gainer Led by Nitish Kumar, the NDA was about to form a government with rebel LJP MLAs, but Lalu forced the UPA to dissolve the Assembly. The alliance hopes to consolidate and expand its position among the non-Yadav backwards and upper castes. The LJP MLAs may now openly go to the JD(U) as there will be no fear of the defection law. Besides, the JD-BJP alliance has stood the test of time. SONIA GANDHI Loser The Congress has realised its mistake of sailing in two boats in the previous polls. As it has lost its traditional vote banks to the RJD, NDA and CPI(ML) and has no leader to revive the party in the state, it has no option but to swim or sink with Lalu. It also requires his support in the Central Government. The CPI(M) too wants the party to remain with Lalu to stop the BJP from winning.

In the central hall of Parliament and to close friends in the Congress, the RJD chief has been complaining about double standards: the UPA Government has helped Congress leaders with their cases but is raising ethical questions when it comes to his cases. "Didn't the NDA help Advani and others with their cases? Why am I being singled out?" he asked a senior Congress functionary recently.

Lalu clearly wants help with his cases, but the Congress is hamstrung. Beyond questions of propriety it cannot do much as the CBI cases are being monitored by the courts. Attempts to dilute the severity or tamper with evidence have already been censured. A three-member bench of the Supreme Court also took strong exception to the "quiet burial" to the cases relating to the income tax arrears against Lalu and Rabri Devi. The cases, an offshoot of the fodder scam, in which he was jailed several times, were hurriedly closed by the special bench of the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal in Patna within 10 days of the UPA Government assuming power. The Supreme Court demanded details of the closed cases following a public-interest petition filed by BJP leader Sushil Modi and JD(U) leader Rajiv Ranjan Singh Lallan. The apex court, however, asked the Patna High Court to set up a bench to decide on the appeal.

Last fortnight, as the Opposition pressured the Government to sack Lalu from the Union Ministry, there were rumours that he would have to quit if the court cancelled his bail. Mercifully, the adjournment of Parliament and court holidays have given him a respite, but the threat hangs heavy. It forebodes trouble for the Congress. Having failed to rid itself of a troublesome ally in Bihar by aligning with Paswan, the Congress has few options. More so as it has been reduced to a bit player in Uttar Pradesh. So it could find itself bending again to do Lalu's bidding.

Lalu's gain has been the UPA's loss and any more concessions will dent its credibility. The Congress would do well to remember that its previous government went down due to corruption and that it allowed the BJP to take its first shot at government formation in 1996. Secular credentials can only carry it thus far as corruption corrodes mass support. The poster boy image of Manmohan can only shield the coalition so much.

ELECTIONS

Readying For Action, Again   PICTURE SPEAK TAKE TWO: CEC B.B. Tandon gears up for another bout of polls Conducting an election in Bihar is a daunting task at the best of times. Given the political scuffle the state has witnessed after the February 2005 assembly polls, the Election Commission (EC) may not exactly be looking forward to going through another bout of electoral exercise. It has few options. After the dissolution of the state Assembly on May 23, the Commission has till November 22 this year to hold elections and have a government in place. But first, of course, it has to deal with the confusion about whether the six-month deadline is to be calculated from the date of dissolution of the Assembly or from the date of the imposition of President's rule. It is also waiting for the NDA to take action on its promise of approaching the Supreme Court against the dissolution of the House. If, however, elections are inevitable, the Commission will go ahead, but it may still be October or November before it can conduct them. For, as EC sources claim, a large part of Bihar is flooded between July and September due to the rains, with the rural areas being particularly inaccessible. On the flip side, the revision of electoral rolls may not be necessary as summary revision was conducted earlier this year. The EC needs 40 days from the date of notification to hold the elections and will decide on the dates after consultation with state officials, the chief electoral officer of Bihar and the Central government. The conduct of fresh elections has not been a happy decision for the state's MLAs who have had to renounce their mandate as the Assembly was dissolved even before it could be constituted-a first for any Indian state. Not that Bihar is alien to political instability, which it witnessed between 1967 and 1971, but there has never been a hung Assembly before. Politics may be unpredictable, but Bihar stands out in setting unenviable precedents. -By Shyamlal Yadav

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