Nothing captures the decline of Bal Thackeray as the exit of two Shiv Sainiks over a span of 14 years. In 1991, when Chhagan Bhujbal left the party, he was so scared of a violent Sena backlash that he went into hiding for nearly a month. Last week, when Narayan Rane was expelled from the Sena, not only did he remain in the public eye but also paraded his grievances before the TV cameras. While Thackeray announced Rane's expulsion at a meeting of Sena corporators and MLAs at the Rungsharda hall in Bandra west, Rane retaliated by addressing a press conference barely a stone's throw away from the Mumbai suburb where he accused the Sena chief of putra prem (blind love for his son, Uddhav).

Despite the melodramatic mudslinging, the revolt comes as a shock for the ageing Shiv Sainik. In a desperate attempt to regain control of the situation, the 78-year-old Thackeray asked Rane to resign as the leader of Opposition. However, a defiant Rane says he will do so on the floor of the House when the Assembly reconvenes for its monsoon session on July 11. As Rane did not resign from the Sena but was sacked, there is no constitutional threat to his membership in the Assembly. What Rane has done is to buy himself time to gauge his support within the party.

PICTURE SPEAK
SPARKING A DECLINE: Rane (left, centre) at a press meet; (right) Thackeray with Uddhav (left) and Raj

One of Sena's few mass leaders, Rane's support base is essentially in the Konkan region, comprising Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri and Raigad. Together, these add up to 31 assembly seats. During the previous elections, the Sena had won 12 seats, with the NCP winning nine, BJP four and the Congress two. Both the Congress and the NCP are now wooing Rane to increase their vote base in the region. But so far Rane has not committed himself to any course of action. What is worrying him is the anti-defection law. Rane will need 42 of the 63 Sena mlas to split the party. However, an emergency meeting called by the Sena chief on July 6 to take stock of his loyalists was attended by as many as 52 MLAs. At the meeting, Uddhav's cousin Raj suggested that he should resign as working president so that the anti-Uddhav camp would not break away. Some MLAs even suggested Manohar Joshi's candidature for working president as a compromise between the warring cousins.

The Sena's base is the Konkan working class and the middle-class Maharashtrian. It has lost whatever little north Indian support it had with Sanjay Nirupam's defection a few months ago. Bhujbal took a large chunk of the OBC (Maali) vote bank when he crossed over to the other side of the secular divide. "This is the beginning of the end for the Shiv Sena," says Gurudas Kamat, Mumbai PCC chief. Adds NCP leader Praful Patel: "Rane is welcome to join the NCP. The Sena and the NCP are strong rivals in the Konkan area and with Rane on our side we will be a formidable combination."

PRIME MOVERS

Rane is the third charismatic, high-profile leader to leave the Shiv Sena. Sanjay Nirupam joined the Congress in March last year, taking the north Indian vote with him. Chhagan Bhujbal left the party in 1991 taking 12 mlas and a chunk of the OBC vote bank. Ganesh Naeke and Ramesh Prabhoo are other Sena MLAs who have found succour in the NCP in recent times. With both Rane and Nirupam leaving within six months, the Sena lacks a second generation telegenic face. When Nirupam left, Rane handled the media. Now Uddhav has to fend the TV cameras.

The Rane camp maintains that the former chief minister was a target of inner-party politics and blames Shiv Sena Working President Uddhav Thackeray. In his resignation letter to Uddhav, Rane said, "It is not the same Shiv Sena of Balasaheb. Shiv Sainiks do not get love, affection and trust from you as they used to get from Saheb." Rane had got wind of Uddhav's plan to replace him as leader of the Opposition with party General Secretary Subhash Desai. It was to pre-empt this move that Rane upped the ante and shot off his letter to Uddhav, forcing Bal Thackeray to expel him.

Some Shiv Sainiks also point to the role of former chief minister Joshi in the dramatic episode. Joshi has been looking for political rehabilitation ever since he lost the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Sena sources claim that it was Joshi who proposed that Desai be made leader of the Opposition so that he could grab Desai's general secretaryship. Interestingly, one of the reasons for Nirupam and Bhujbal leaving the Sena was that both had been peeved with Joshi. In 1990, Bhujbal wanted to be leader of the Opposition but Joshi beat him to the post. A year later, Bhujbal left the party along with 12 MLAs, which forced Joshi to step down as leader of Opposition because without the 12 MLAs, the Sena's tally was reduced to less than that of the BJP.

A fallout of Rane's revolt is that the issue of party leadership has come to the fore. While the Sena's image has been that of a brash, aggressive party, its current leader and Bal Thackeray's chosen inheritor, Uddhav, lacks his father's killer instinct. His non-aggressive campaigning and the Sena's inability to project an inspiring leader was largely responsible for the party's rout in the previous assembly elections.

Sena insiders compare Uddhav with his father and find him lacking. In a sense, Rane's letter puts into writing the whisperings outside Matoshree. Uddhav's inaccessibility to the Sena cadres is legendary. Two years ago, he was asked by his father to go to Sena Bhavan every Tuesday to make himself available to the public. After a couple of visits Uddhav gave up, telling two former Rajya Sabha MPs, "Every week the same man comes to meet me with the same complaint. How can I meet the same man each time?" Clearly, the concept of public interaction was lost on the leader.

Added to this are Raj's political ambitions. Rane is considered to be a Raj protege and is hoping that Raj will rebel with him. But Raj knows what happens to a Thackeray who moves out of the family sphere; Uddhav's brother Jaidev is an example of a marginalised Thackeray. He is more likely to watch the slow decline and bide his time, for timing in politics is everything.

Unfortunately for the ageing Tiger, time is the one thing he does not have. Bal Thackeray is living out the supreme irony of his political existence. For the past 39 years, since the Sena was created in 1966, he has been mocking the Congress for its dynastic brand of politics. Today, the Sena supremo is being accused of the same. If Rane's charges catch the cadres' imagination, it would be a sad epitaph for the House of Thackerays.

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