| In May 2004, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) came to power after 24 political parties, many with little in common, joined hands and managed to win 234 seats in the 14th Lok Sabha elections. With support from outside of the four Left parties that had a combined strength of 68, the alliance cobbled together a working majority in the 542-member House. The first India Today-AC Nielsen-ORG-MARG Mood of the Nation Poll, conducted in August 2004 after the UPA took office, showed the combine had gained spectacularly after just three months in power. While the UPA's actual vote share in the elections held in April-May 2004 was 37.8 per cent, it had gone up to 40.5 three months later. A general election held in August 2004 would have raised the UPA's tally in the Lok Sabha by anything between 45 and 50 seats, giving it an absolute majority and leaving the alliance less vulnerable to arm-twisting by the Left. On the other hand, the same poll had shown the BJP's fortunes taking a spectacular dip, its vote share falling by more than a per cent while its tally of votes in the Lower House dropped from 184 to between 135 and 145. This poll is the third since August 2004 and the results of the subsequent polls have been something of a wake up call for the Government. From the high of 40.5 per cent vote share in August 2004, it slumped to 38.7 per cent (248 to 258 seats) in the polls held in January last year. A poll conducted later in August revealed that the UPA's presence in the Lok Sabha had slipped by over a dozen seats. Just five months later, this latest poll gives the UPA even lesser seats and a marginal drop in vote share. The Congress's rating on issues like solving the country's myriad problems and providing a stable government takes a beating as the BJP slowly closes the gap with the ruling party. Asked to rate the prime minister's performance, 35 per cent termed it average, 35 per cent good and 12 per cent poor. The Government's public rating, too, is almost along similar lines with 37 per cent terming it average, 33 per cent good and 11 per cent poor. Sonia Gandhi, who trailed Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 11 successive Mood of the Nation polls since 1998 retains the numero uno position she wrested from him in our last poll as the person most suited to lead the country, with 27 per cent votes. Though Vajpayee has unofficially announced his retirement, 24 per cent still say he is the best bet for the country. Manmohan Singh comes a distant third with 15 per cent. Worse, it does him no good to be reminded that despite being the prime minister, he is not quite in control. Asked to name the more powerful of the two, 60 per cent chose the UPA chief over the country's prime minister! -By Ashok Damodaran  | | SURVEY | | | 28% of those who voted for the NDA in 2004 feel there won't be a snap poll this year. 11% of those who voted UPA in 2004 say Vajpayee is best suited to lead the country. 12% of NDA voters feel the same about manmohan.
|  Best party to solve the problems of the country
Congress 30 (32)
BJP 28 (27)
Others 38 (39)
All figures in per cent.
Rest: Don't know/Can't say
Figures in brackets indicate percentage in August 2005
| WHO DO YOU THINK IS MORE POWERFUL OF THE TWO?
MANMOHAN SINGH 22 (23
SONIA GANDHI 60 (63)
| Which party is more concerned about the poor?
CONGRESS 30 (31)
BJP 27 (25)
Others 38 (39) Figures in brackets indicate percentage in August 2005
| Which party is best capable of giving a stable government?
CONGRESS 31 (33)
BJP 28 (28)
Others 34 (32) | Who among the following will make the best prime minister?
SONIA GANDHI 27 (27)
Vajpayee 24 (26)
Manmohan Singh 15 (15)
Advani 3 (4)
Mayawati 3 (3)
Pawar 2 (0)
All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say
Figures in brackets indicate percentage in August 2005 | | IF POLLS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? CONGRESS+ RJD, NCP, JMM, LJP, DMK, MDMK, KEC(M), IUML, RPI, PMK, FBL, TRC. Left, except in Kerala and West Bengal.
January 2006
232-242 38.3%
BJP+ TELUGU DESAM PARTY, JD(U), SHIV SENA, BJD, SHIROMANI AKALI DAL AND AITC.
January 2006
170-180 33.8% OTHERS
AIADMK, SP, INLD, AGP, BSP AND THE LEFT IN KERALA AND WEST BENGAL.
January 2006
125-135 27.9%
| | | | | | | |
| | WHICH OF THE PAST LEADERS WOULD HAVE MADE THE MOST DIFFERENCE TODAY? | |  Aloof, imperious, cynical, ruthless, divisive. Those attributes best described late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. She was also charming, decisive, popular, far-sighted and politically astute. But it is the former qualities that respondents to this poll were clearly remembering when they overwhelmingly chose Mrs G as the past leader who could make the biggest difference if she was around today. This is a hypothetical question but revealing nonetheless. Jawaharlal Nehru ranked fifth with a mere 4 per cent of those polled naming him, Mahatma Gandhi ranked third with 10 per cent of the respondents in his favour, while Rajiv Gandhi was preferred by 14 per cent. In contrast, 41 per cent opted for Mrs G. The reasons for these choices lie in the present, not in the past. Mrs G has been dead for some 22 years but her recall clearly has to do with today's fractured polity, the terrorist threat and relations with Pakistan, and the current politics of compromise. In the Indira of the respondents' imagination, her ruthless resolve, decisiveness and moral strength would have been the ideal qualities required to best tackle today's challenges. She is seen as the avenging Durga, the creator of India's nuclear deterrent, feared by the country's enemies and revered by her people. In that context, the response is reflective of an India that perceives contemporary leadership to be effete, rudderless and hamstrung by coalition politics. Missing Mrs Gandhi is, at the end of the day, a case of selective memory: good becomes bad and vice versa.
-By Dilip Bobb |  Indira Gandhi 41
Rajiv Gandhi 14
Mahatma Gandhi 10
Subhas Chandra Bose 5
Jawaharlal Nehru 4
Lal Bahadur Shastri 4  RATE THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PM
GOOD 35 (35)
Average 35 (40)
Poor 12 (12)
Outstanding 3 (3)
All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say
Figures in brackets indicate percentage in August 2005 Rate the performance of the UPA Government in the last one-and-half years
GOOD 33 (34)
Poor 11 (12)
Average 37 (41)
Outstanding 3 (2)
Interestingly, the Government's public rating is almost similar to that accorded to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's performance. Has the Volcker Report affected the credibility of the UPA Government?
YES 17
No 6
Not aware 22
All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say Do you think there will be snap general elections this year?
NO 30
Yes 18
Maybe 19
All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say What level of trust do you have in your MP?
Trust him to some extent 25
Trust him to a great extent 24
Distrust him to some extent 10
Distrust him to a great extent 11
Not aware of him 8 All figures in per cent.
Rest: Don't know/Can't say Do you think Natwar Singh was guilty in the Iraq oil deal?
YES 26
No 11 | | METHODOLOGY The INDIA TODAY-AC Nielsen-ORG-MARG Mood of the Nation poll covered 12,436 eligible voters from 19 states and is one of the most comprehensive surveys done in India. The sample covered all age groups, gender and the urban-rural divide from 98 parliamentary constituencies. Within each parliamentary constituency, two Assembly constituencies were sampled based on stratified systematic random sampling. House-to-house, face-to-face interviews were done on the basis of quotas using the right hand rule of field movement in the selected Assembly constituencies. The comparison of allies is on the basis of 2004 Lok Sabha polls. The Left has been taken as a part of Congress+ except in Kerala and West Bengal. Thus, the INC+ allies include RJD, NCP, JMM, LNSJP, NCP, JD(S) in Karnataka; KEC(M) and IUML in Kerala; RPI, PMK, DMK, MDMK and TRC. BJP+ allies include the TDP, JD(U), Shiv Sena; BJD, SAD and AITC. AIADMK, SP, INLD, AGP, BSP and the Left in Kerala and West Bengal have opted out of the two alliances and hence have been analysed under "Others". The field work was conducted from December 20, 2005 to January 2, 2006. The poll was held under the direction of Vivek Kumar, associate director, and Radhika Bhatia, senior client service executive.
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