Readying For Battle

Trying to exploit his present popularity, the chief minister gets into election mode a year before assembly polls are due, takes on the upa Government and puts the Congress on the back foot

PICTURE SPEAK

DEVELOPING STRATEGY: Modi (left) with Kalam at the dedication of Jyotigram power scheme Narendra Modi's election strategy this time is to portray Gujarat as a victim of discrimination by the Central Government.

That was the message he conveyed last week as he attacked the Centre at an impressive party rally in the presence of senior BJP leader L.K. Advani and party President Rajnath Singh. Citing several recent instances of discrimination by the Centre in the matter of allocation of power from the national power grid, coverage to Gujarat on Doordarshan and passing of important Bills including the anti-terror Gujarat Control of Organised Crime (GUJCOC) Bill. "Truth has its own force. We will take our rightful share, come what may," he declared. Modi's electoral fortunes were given a boost by his recent success in getting his nominee Purshottam Rupala elected as president of the Gujarat BJP against opposition from the dissident lobby within the party. He followed up two days later, using the occasion of the dedication of his favourite Jyotigram power scheme to the nation by President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam in the tribal and OBC-dominated Champaner area of Panchmahal district. The unique scheme guarantees 24-hour, three-phase domestic and commercial power supply to all the 18,000 villages in the state. This is widely considered to be a feat in the area of power distribution in an age in which even the national capital isn't free from power cuts. It was one of the biggest public gatherings seen by Kalam in his presidential tenure, according to a source in his entourage.

Says political analyst Vidyut Thakar, who thinks Modi will seek votes in the name of development: "Modi has three points in his favour. He is in total command of his party as well as his Government and has widespread public support. And against empty slogans of the past, he has achieved paradigms of development which were till recently seen as being in the realm of promises only. Gujarat's near double-digit growth rate is a proof of that. His image of a man who delivers is getting stronger." Agrees Nagindas Sanghvi, Gujarat's most experienced political scientist and a critic of Modi in many matters: "His clean image is yet another factor that goes in his favour. His image has remained untainted so far. Modi is clearly far ahead in the election race. In fact, Congress at the moment seems nowhere near."

What is striking about Modi as he unravels his strategy for the December 2007 elections is that his popularity remains largely the same as it was in 2002. On one hand, the busting of Jehadi plots and his firm stand on terrorism has kept his Hindutva image intact. On the other, his Government's work in the past four years in the areas of power, water and industrial development has given him the image of a development icon. Modi's initiatives in the water sector have also earned him a lot of public goodwill. The height of the Narmada dam was raised from 90 metre to 121 metre during his tenure, while his pet Sujalam Sufalam water conservation scheme has also made an impact. Crop production too has reached an optimum level and Gujarat has emerged as the highest producer of cotton. According to Sanghvi, the chief minister has also been quite lucky-monsoons have been repeatedly good during his tenure.

Modi is moving ahead in poll mode in a skilful and planned manner. One year before the polls, he has settled the party's internal problems in his favour by getting Rupala, a Patel leader, elected to head the state party unit. This will help him in giving tickets to candidates of his choice. In last year's civic polls, he replaced old candidates with fresh faces in many municipalities and won handsomely. Moreover, the Patel factor of Gujarat, which many believed would damage Modi (a non-Patel) in due course, has got totally neutralised due to a combination of factors. The Patel community as a whole appears to have accepted him, drawn by his delivery on promises made.

It will, however, not be all smooth sailing. The Congress it is not sitting idle. The state unit under Bharasinh Solanki is strengthening the grassroots organisation of the party, which had become very weak. Solanki has set new standards in party management and discipline, which are a break from the past. In spite of the Modi rhetoric, the party leadership believes the situation cannot be worse than it was in 2002, when, despite the communal polarisation, the Congress won 50 seats and lost 30 seats with a margin of less than 3,000 votes. Says leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly Arjun Modhvadia: "Polls are too far. But let it come and you will see that the Modi bubble has burst. In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, Modi said he won't allow a single Congressman to go to the Parliament. But we won 12 out of the 26 seats."

December 2007, when the state election is scheduled, is indeed a far cry. There can be many a slip between the cup and the lip, at least in politics in one year. For one, the chief minister has to be on guard against the oft-repeated charge of arrogance. When the BJP did rather poorly in Gujarat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, one of the reasons was also attributed to Modi's alleged arrogance, particularly his calling names to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi and comparing them to clerk and constable, respectively. But as of today, most, including Modi's harshest critics, believe the party under him is clearly far ahead in the race.

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