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    CURRENT ISSUE MARCH 12, 2007
 
   COVER STORY: Budget 2007: THE POLITICS
 
Big Bucks No Bang

Shorn of any big idea, Budget 2007 is an essay that tries to manage the exigencies of politics and the public outcry on inflation even as it attempts to balance the need for growth. It satisfies neither political wants nor economic needs.
 
"I must caution that outlays do not necessarily mean outcomes. The people of the country are concerned with outcomes. The prime minister has repeatedly emphasised the need to improve the quality of implementation and enhance the efficiency and accountability of the delivery mechanism."
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, February 28, 2005.

On February 28, 2007, 24 months later, Palaniappan Chidambaram seems to have thrown caution to the winds of political expediency. Or you could say he has been forced to shed his natural scepticism. Presenting his sixth budget, Chidambaram allocated over Rs 1,00,000 crore to primary and secondary education, health, Bharat Nirman, the National Employment Guarantee Scheme and other such grandiose ideas. Two years ago, he had promised that along with the Planning Commission, a mechanism would be put into place to measure the development outcomes and weed out those that didn't measure up. The outcome budgets tabled by ministries, though, merely stated what they would do with the money.

Perhaps the assessment is on; maybe the Government has found ways of spending efficiently to enable inclusive growth. Either way, it must be a secret, because the taxpaying public has no clue. What we do know is what the cag (Comptroller and Auditor General of India) has said about some of these programmes. Take the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan (SSA). Over 1.3 crore children-40 per cent of the target group-are still out of school; 31,468 habitations don't have a school; 75,884 schools have just one teacher; and 6,647 schools have none. Yet Budget 2007 has increased allocations for the SSA and the Mid-day Meal Scheme from Rs 17,133 crore to Rs 23,142 crore.

AGRICULTURE

Agricultural output, which has been stagnant in the last 10 years, needs more than mere lip service

Farm credit target of Rs 2,25,000 cr. Bank credit to 50 lakh more farmers.

Rs 16,979 cr plan in 31 distressed districts in four states. Nine lakh more hectares to be irrigated.

Aam Aadmi Bima Yojna for landless farmers. Fertiliser subsidy boosted by Rs 4,200 cr.

Rs 72,246 cr more for rural package

HEALTH

India has the worst indices for human development. The FM's prescription is more money.

Rs 969 cr more for AIDS control. Rs 1,290 cr for polio eradication.

Allocation for National Rural Health Mission hiked from Rs 8,207 cr to Rs 9,947 cr.

In 2004-05, less than 26% allocated to communicable diseases was used.

22% increase in budgetary allocation to Rs 15,291 cr

EDUCATION

Higher expenditure on primary education has not yielded results. 1.3 cr children are out of school.

Two lakh more teachers, five lakh additional classrooms and one lakh new annual National Means-cum-Merit Scholarships.

Rs 10,671 cr more for Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan. Rs 288 cr more for teacher training. Rs 7,324 cr more for mid-day meals.

Rs 3,240 cr allocated to the new OBC quota

Clearly, the UPA Government, faced with inclement political weather and a high voltage electoral battle in Uttar Pradesh, wants to get its politics right. Although theoretically, good economics is good politics. This was after all the best opportunity for any government, given the high-tax-revenue-and-growth combo to announce a big bang strategy for sustained high growth. But political compulsions were clearly far greater. Buffeted by the public outcry against inflation the finance minister (FM) may have chosen discretion over valour. It is not just the allies or the ever-carping Left; within the party, the Government has been targeted for not adhering to the fatwa of 'inclusive growth'. Fact is, inequality is a necessary fallout of growth and has to be corrected by subvention and intervention. But in the Congress Working Committee the debate on inclusive growth almost turned into a campaign against growth.

The easy option, thus, is to hike allocations on social sectors. For instance, even though there is no complete national audit of the National Rural Employment Guarantee (NREG) scheme, introduced in February 2006, its scope has been expanded from 200 to 330 districts and allocations have been hiked to Rs 12,000 crore. Allocations for the Bharat Nirman programme have been hiked by 34.2 per cent to Rs 24,603 crore, and for health and family welfare by 21.9 per cent to Rs 15,291 crore.

In the world of snakes and daggers, smoke and mirrors is often the preferred strategy. So the FM devoted over 100 of the 187 paras in his speech to the political message. The optics, too, suggests a big push for social sectors. Indeed, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the prime focus was on education, healthcare, and on increasing spending on social infrastructure.

If one senses a certain déjà vu, it is not without reason. Government intervention in public space has more often than not resulted in money spent badly. Rajiv Gandhi said 22 years back that barely 15 paise of every rupee spent reaches the beneficiary. Often money allocated is not spent. In December 2006, 13 departments had spent just 40 per cent of the allocated monies in nine months. Out of Rs 2,52,594 crore, only Rs 1,36,405 crore had been spent.

For 10 years, the production of pulses, rice, wheat and edible oil-has been stagnant. Over half the population lives off less than 20 per cent of the GDP. What is needed is a new blueprint for the sector that ranges from investment in high-yield seeds to that in technology, and an evangelical push to redo cropping patterns. This may be the domain of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar rather than that of the FM, as there is no dearth of funds or schemes. Indeed, the quote by Thiruvalluvar-which says that if ploughmen keep their hands folded, even sages claiming renunciation cannot find salvation-seems to be aimed at the wily Maratha chieftain.

  INTERVIEW FINANCE MINISTER P. CHIDAMBARAM

"We want to make growth inclusive"

A day after presenting the Budget, a combative Finance Minister P Chidambaram spoke with Editor Prabhu Chawla and Business Today Editor Sanjoy Narayan. Excerpts:

  PICTURE SPEAK
“TEN YEARS AGO OUR DREAM WAS TO PLUG INDIA TO THE
WORLD. TODAY THE DREAM IS TO MAKE GROWTH INCLUSIVE.”
Q. Congratulations on your fourth successive budget. The response though has been mixed compared to the dream budget of 1997

A. Whose reaction are you talking about? Are you talking about the reaction of the corporate sector, I was there with them this morning and they have forgotten what they said yesterday and they sand a very different tune today. You must understand that every budget has an economic context and a political context. Ten years ago we had different dreams, to plug India to the world. Today the message was different. We have growth, it is not cyclical and that is a structural shift. We now want to make this growth inclusive. That was one kind of dream; this is one kind of dream.

Q. You have tried to balance sustained high growth and rein in inflation at the same time. How tough was that?

A. This is a new kind of challenge for India. In 2000-2001 for 48 out of
52 weeks inflation was between six and seven per cent. That low growth and high inflation while today we have high growth and inflation of around 6.5 per cent. We believe we can moderate inflation without affecting growth.

Q. You are saying that inflation is going out of control, so who do you think is responsible – the trading community…

A. I'll tell you what is responsible and then you can decide who is responsible…

Q. I want your judgement

A. I'll tell you. I can only tell you what is responsible. Credit growth, global commodity prices which are impacting Indian commodity prices and completely unexpected supply-side constraints all coming at the same time. One year you have sugar, one year wheat, pulses…But this year all have come together

Q. Even Onions…

A. Onions are seasonal, no monetary fiscal policy can deal with onions.

Q. Tell me frankly, is this your budget?

A. Yes it is.

Q. And you are happy with the budget?

A. Of course I am happy with the budget, I will defend it. I defended it this morning, and the channels carried it live in morning.

Q. But some of your allies aren't very pleased.

A. I can't speak for my allies. We have spent more money on agriculture, on education, healthcare, social security, water management…

Q. But there is no 'Big Bang' for the bucks in the budget?

A. I'm sorry, the budget can only provide the bucks. The bang has to come when the bucks are used to deliver the outcomes.

Q. But the education cess is going to impact tax payers…

A. Show me one person who says they won't pay the education cess. I am happy the HRD ministry has spent all the money it was allocated.

Q. You spoke about higher allocations but money doesn't reach beneficiaries.

A. Is that an issue that can be addressed in the Budget speech? It cannot. It is part of the governance system. I said so in my speech quite candidly. This is part of the Governance structure in this country and has to be addressed by systemic changes.

Q. But in the absence of such systems, pushing money down…

A. What do you want me to do?

Q. Rajiv Gandhi said only 15 paise out of a rupee reaches the poor. What is the figure today?

A. I think a lot more value is extracted from every rupee today than when the Late Rajiv Gandhi made that speech.

Q. Say five paisa out of every rupee?

A. I don't know.

Q. You don't have the figures?

A. What do you want me to do? Put the money away in the bank? We can't hold back and say we won't give the money because there is leakage.

Q. Wasn't this a good time to disband the exemption raj?

A. We have done, we have removed several exemptions. We have done it.

Q. What is the big idea of the budget?

A. The message of this budget is – growth is happening, let us become more inclusive. Let the gains be distributed to more sections.

Q. Don't you think individuals should got some tax benefits?

A. I don't think so and I will explain why. If you look at an individual tax payer, we recast the slabs only in 2005-06. So we have two things now, one lakh as a slab and one lakh as a savings basket. Even if you look for adjustment to inflation, the inflation over the last two years has not been ten percent.

Q. But you have been unfair to painters…

A. The art world has welcomed that, for the first time today the art world says that this brings everything out in the open.

Q. I think it was politically incorrect is when you talked about pets…

A. Please…

Q. When there are Indian companies it seems you want imported food for pets

A. I don't want imported food for pets, it is simply part of the schedule. I am surprised that my friend Prabhu Chawla does not share a sense of humour.

Q. The inclusion of ESOPs in FBT has business worried

A. Is ESOP a Fringe Benefit or not?. The question is how will the ESOP be valued and how it will be taxed, we have to wait for the rules to be made on that regard. Undoubtedly ESOP is a Fringe Benefit and must be taxed.

Q. Tell me, I have the feeling that you could have done a bit more if you wanted to…

A. (Laughs) Whatever I wanted to do I have done. I am very happy I have been able to do something for children leaving Class 8 and then dropping out, for the physically challenged and something for groundwater recharge, for HIV/AIDS, polio…We have been able to do something about that this year because we have the money. I could not have done it a couple of years ago.

Q. Would you have been able to do this earlier if the Congress had single-party majority?

A. That is not the way to look at it, I am bound by the NCMP, if the Congress party was alone in majority I would be bound by the Congress party's manifesto. Everything that has been done this budget is consistent with the NCMP.

The fact, though, is that it is Chidambaram who will have to carry the can if output doesn't rise and price rise doesn't subside.

Inflation is both a political and an economic crisis. But it is a quotient of both growth that drives demand and the historical problems of supply. A new blueprint for agriculture that would boost output and enhance viability; use of forex reserves to create a strategic foodgrain reserve (akin to the US oil reserves); a push for retail that would have brought investments to establish supply chains and funded infrastructure which needs $320 billion (Rs 14,40,000 crore), could have provided the big bang. But the strategy of Budget 2007 seems to be governed by incrementalism. It seems to be focused on throwing money at a problem and hoping that it goes away.

"At a time today when the aam aadmi finds dal costly, the FM is reducing prices of food for dogs and cats."
L.K. ADVANI, LEADER OF THE OPPOSITION

"This is a ritualistic budget. It will have no impact on inflation. It is not in touch with ground realities."
GURUDAS DASGUPTA, CPI LEADER

5.4% is the FM's projection of average inflation in 2007-8

The power sector symbolises the this mindset. Former power minister Suresh Prabhu points out: "With power cuts of over six hours in most states and a peak power shortage of over 12,000 MW, there could have been a big push for generation. They could have announced a big kitty using some of the reserves to fund fast-track projects." Every year the government suffers over Rs 30,000 crore of transmission losses due to theft, but support to power reforms has been hiked by just Rs 250 crore to Rs 800 crore. There is every reason to push rural electrification, but as Prabhu says, "electrifying a village without first ensuring generation would be a tragedy".

The real tragedy, though, is that politics in India is obsessed with optics and not results. The FM says the UPA has delivered on growth and promises to deliver on inclusive growth. The politics of inclusive growth seems to threaten the very basis of growth. The abysmal level of healthcare, the low literacy, the high drop-out rates in schools, and the pathetic state of infrastructure need to be addressed. An economy growing at 8-plus per cent needs to address these issues. The debate is not about the diagnosis, it is about the prescription. The economy afforded the Government an opportunity for surgical intervention. It chose to offer placebos.

 RELATED STORIES
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  Next Story

Index

Untitled Document
CURRENT ISSUE
MARCH 12, 2007
IN THIS ISSUE
  COVER STORY
BIG BUCKS NO BANG
  OTHER STORIES
 

A Story Of Missed Opportunity

It's A Zero Sop Game

The Money Train

Not Minding Q

After-Hours Gavel Gazing

Beyond City Limits

A Dash Of Saffron

Congress Saddened

Family Serial

Nearing Land's End

The Jumbo Job

Mutiny And The Bounty

The Future Is A Startup

Bricks To Bouquets

Dramatic Revival

Lights, Camera, India

Thinking Out Of The Box

Is the Indian Railways really being run as well as is claimed?
 





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