TRENDS (Page 1)

Here, in patent-KBC style, is a no-brainer: what's the ideal foil to an intellectually depressing quiz show?

A. An intellectually stimulating quiz show like BBC's Mastermind India
B. The News
C. A David Dhawan-Govinda blockbuster
D. A family-centric (FC) soap

Star TV picked D. The details? Kahani Ghar Ghar Ki (It's the same story in every house) on Star Plus channel at 10 pm, Monday to Thursday and Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi (Because the mother-in-law was once a daughter-in-law) on Star Plus again at 10.30 pm, on the same days. If you're inclined to guffaw at the ludicrousness of these names-that's what they are in English-don't. Figures made available by tam (Television Audience Measurement), a division of IMRB, indicate that in the second week of November, around 19 weeks after KSBKBT went on air, and four weeks after KGGK started, their viewership crossed 20 lakh, sometimes touching 30 lakh . In contrast, Sony's most popular FC soap, Ek Mahal Ho Sapno Ka (Palace of Dreams) may sound a little less unsophisticated, but it came a cropper at the viewership hustings (9 lakh for the same period). And Zee, which pioneered the concept-in the satellite-channel domain; DD did it first with shows like Amanat (treasure or legacy) and Koshish (attempt) fared slightly better than Sony. It's the highest rated soap, Amanat managed viewership between 13 to 16 lakh.That doesn't prevent Sainath Iyer, Zee's President, from cockily labelling this ''a new thing (only) for Star Plus viewers''. It wasn't rocket-science that went into the making of GGKK and KSBKBT: a Star TV research initiative showed that middle-class housewives who were essentially homebirds formed the bulk of the 10 to 11 pm universe. And the two shows, with their traditional themes, seem to have appealed to these women-and far more than the channel's earlier offerings like Saans (Breath) which dealt with infidelity and Kora Kagaz (Blank Paper) which revolved around the theme of an extra-marital affair. Gloats Sameer Nair, Star TV's head of programming who's basking in the glow of three successful shows:

"These (GGKK and KSBKBT) are serials that women can relate to. They portray things that women can aspire for. And by airing them four days a week, we are forming a habit." We don't know about the aspirational bit, but the programmes are a sure hit: the first 12 slots in the 50 top programmes of the week (data for week ended November 11) were taken by Star's abbreviated triad (each programme is aired four days a week).

These low cost soaps-it takes merely Rs 2 lakh to produce an episode of GGKH compared to Rs 58 lakh for KBC-were just what Star needed. The two soaps may have their critics like programming consultant Vinod Pandey who accuses Star of sticking to an old formula, but they have their fans among advertisers. Mona Jain, head of media planning at Mudra Communications is one. Says she: '' KSBKBT is promoted heavily during KBC; its TRP ratings are comparable to KBC's; its spot-rates are low (Rs 75,000 for 10 seconds as compared to Rs 80,000 for similar serials aired on Zee and Sony); and they're balancing the minor dip in KBC's viewership''.

Viewer-fatigue may be something advertisers should watch out for. Says Santosh Desai, Senior Vice-President, Strategic Planning & Consumer Insight. McCann Erickson: "Star is trying to extend the viewership that peaks around the end of KBC. But these serials are beaten-track stuff and a few episodes down the line viewers are likely to tire of them." Perhaps Star could then use a lifeline.

Arguably, it is the most coveted jewel in the government's impoverished corporate treasure. And that's precisely why selling it won't be easy. We are talking about Maruti Udyog, India's automotive behemoth, where the Indian government holds a 49.74 per cent stake that it now wants to hawk to the highest bidder. The interest in MUL sale is obvious. With sales of nearly 4 lakh cars a year,170 dealers in 129 cities, and 1,560 service centres across India, MUL is a dream acquisition. The question, however, is who'll benefit the most by the acquisition or what the asking price should be.

Part of the issue stems from a recent clarification that the government made: that Suzuki Motor Corporation does not have the first right of refusal, although its consent will be needed for the divestment. That means any of Suzuki's competitors, right from Telco to Hyundai to Fiat to Ford to General Motors to Honda to Toyota to Mitsubishi to Daimler-Chrysler, can bid for the stake. In fact, even those car makers who do not currently operate in India-like Volkswagen, BMW, or Renault-can take a go at it.

In an industry that is desperate for consolidation, the battle for MUL will be fought tooth and nail. For manufacturers like Ford, GM (it already owns 20 per cent in Suzuki), and Fiat (again, GM owns 20 per cent in the Italian company), and Daimler-Chrysler (which has stakes in Hyundai and Mitsubishi) badly need small car capabilities if they are to count in India. And MUL (in effect, Suzuki), with an enviable portfolio of small cars, can give them those capabilities over night.

Here's the catch, though. Without Suzuki, MUL won't be the company it is. However, if Suzuki does decide to sell its own stake or play second fiddle to a new owner, filling the technology vacuum would take somebody like Toyota or Honda, both of whom have proven small car capabilities. To a large extent, the sale price will determine what happens. MUL is not listed on any stock exchange, but based on future earnings, the 50 per cent stake can fetch anywhere between Rs 4,500 crore and Rs 6,500 crore. But, as it happens in all M&A deals, the perceived value differs from one bidder to another. As far as the government is concerned, it should simply get the best deal for itself. Whether that comes from Suzuki (in effect, GM) or Ford, or Toyota, shouldn't matter.

Of all global industries, automobiles is probably the oldest and the most hi-profile. For good reason. Investments in vehicle manufacturing are staggeringly high and to be able to make profits, a manufacturer needs to mass produce and sell to a large customer base. Indeed, many experts believe that in a few years from now, barely six or seven car companies will be around. Apparently, none of the Indian vehicle makers figure on that list. But the Pune-based cars and commercial vehicles major, Telco, is moving to find itself a global niche.

For the first time in its 42-year-old history, the Tata Group company is planning to set up an assembly plant in Iraq to make and sell light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and multi-utility vehicles (MUVs) such as Sumo and pick-up trucks. To begin with, completely built-up units (CBUs) will be sent to Iraq, where they will be assembled and sold. Says a Telco executive: ''We are already exporting to the Middle East, but we are looking at a big leap.''

It's easy to see why Telco is keen on tapping markets overseas. Its HCV and LCV sales are down, so much so that last month Telco declared a week's shutdown of its plants in Pune and Jamshedpur-the first time ever. ''Having an assembly plant of its own will give the company better credibility and volumes can be doubled easily," says Deepak Moorthy, Vice-President, Bharat Forge. Also, the investment in an assembly plant is minimal and, typically, is made with a local partner.

Two-wheeler major Bajaj Auto is another auto company that has manufacturing units abroad: one each in Argentina, Columbia, and Brazil. Says Ramesh Bhargava, Vice President, Baja Auto: ''This is the right time to step up exports because we have the capacity and quality to do so.''

In its scooters business, Bajaj faces a Telco-like situation of falling demand. The overall share of scooters in the two-wheelers market has dropped to 39 per cent today from 62 per cent in 1991. Points out Bhargava: ''While the market for scooters in India is shrinking, in Brazil the demand has gone up from 500,000 to 700,000 in the last three years.'' Could Bajaj and Telco be India's own multinationals of emerging markets?

Hero's Pankaj Munjal: strategy by design

For the past two months now, a group of 70 designers-some of them ex-Ferrari, Volkswagen, and Yamaha engineers-have been working out of a small, 8,000-sq. feet office in Ghaziabad. Their objective is to build a design lab of international repute. And the man leading the hand-picked team from the front? Pankaj Munjal, a Hero Group scion.

In its first years, though, the design lab (called Hero Global) will focus on developing the group's own product development capabilities and saving on design costs. Explains Munjal, who is also the CEO of Hero Puch: ''No Indian company has design skills. We are taken for a ride in costs; it's much better to do it in-house. We can do it in much lower costs.''

Munjal knows what he is talking about. Developing a new two-wheeler model used to cost $300,000 in the early 90s. Today, it costs anywhere between $2.5 million and $3.5 million, although the supplier's cost structure or price realisations of the manufacturer haven't significantly changed. For instance, Hero paid $2.5 million to develop Hero E-a 75-cc variomatic scooterette, designed by Malagudi of Italy and launched in February, 2000. Munjal says that was the turning point. With a new launch planned for each of the next five years, the group could ill-afford expensive design bills. Says Munjal: ''You have to find out what the Indian customer wants. (In Hero E) we changed the suspension and modified the intake filter. You can only modify them, not create them.''

Munjal has already invested Rs 10 crore in Hero Global, and is now planning to acquire a US-based detailed engineering firm. That apart, he's trying to sell a 24 per cent stake in Hero Global to design shops like ideas and Ital Design (they designed the Indica and the Matiz, respectively). The bait: ideas and Ital Design can farm out some work to Hero Global, which in turn will send business from India their way.

At a later date, Hero Global also plans to do development work for competitors like Bajaj Auto, TVS-Suzuki, and LML. But why would competitors want to share their product details with Hero? For a big reason: cost, says Munjal. At $30 an hour, Hero Global can beat a Japanese or European design house hands down. Munjal claims that his lab can develop a new model for just $600,000. The arithmetic looks good. Now, it's a question of getting the grand design working.

MONEY MARKETS
RBI: The Marketer

The next time you are out shopping for grocery, do stop by at any big public sector for a cool investment deal. For the first time ever, the Reserve Bank of India is airing TV commercials about its Relief Bonds and actually getting the retail investor interested in the arcane world of high finance. That's some achievement, considering that since their launch in April 1999, the Relief Bonds have kept investors away because of the cumbersome buying procedures. But the Rs 2 crore ad campaign-flagged off on November 18, 2000 and expected to last until March 31, 2001-is fast changing the perception. Says an RBI spokesperson: ''The campaign is designed more to create awareness about the relief bonds and popularise the DEMAT form in which they are sold.''

The bonds can be bought and sold at about 1,000 outlets, including public sector bank branches and also the Stock Holding Corporation of India. And within the first 10 days of the campaign, the results were showing. Says a marketing executive with SHCIL: ''There have been more enquiries about the RBI Relief Bonds since the ad campaign.'' Not surprising because as little as Rs 1,000 can be invested in the bonds for a tax-free 9 per cent return. Besides, the investor can borrow money against the bonds at 10 per cent rate. And you thought economists made bad marketers.

-Roshni Jayakar