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What the Quake means for Gujarat Inc. 

(Contn.)
   
Kandla Dispatch-I
Estimated loss per day due to shops and factories remaining closed: Rs 550 crore
Even 72 hours after the earthquake the only contact the Kandla Port Trust had with the world was through a single VSAT-line. The port itself appears to have gotten off lightly, but the adjoining townships of Gandhidham (corporate) and Adipur (residential) have borne the brunt. Nearly 2,000 people have died in Gandhidham alone, with 30-odd high-rises coming down like a house of cards. But companies and the people who work in them have been pre-occupied with saving lives (their own and those of others); expectedly, no one has really taken stock of the impact on business yet.

The Kandla Port Trust, for instance, has put its entire machinery towards helping victims in Gandhidham. With everyone scurrying around trying to put some semblance of order into their rudely-disrupted lives, less than 20 per cent of the port's engineers are reporting for work.

The port itself has been closed. The Ports & Customs Office has inclined 15 degrees; that's a fate shared by the main road leading to the port from Gandhidham, the place where most companies have their facilities. Labour is scarce: port-workers have fled either to adjoining areas or their homes back in Bihar. As the deputy commissioner of customs at the port explains: ''Everything has stopped. Workers have fled. I don't see work being resumed before a month.''

The pillars on which the wharfs rest at the port have developed cracks and this could impact the load-bearing capability of the wharf. Till the quake hit, these could handle up to 45,000 tonnes. Now no one is sure, and any one who ventures onto the jetty can feel it vibrating mildly as the waves hit its supports. The port administration has already sent out an SOS to the Indian Institute of Technology, Chennai, which will be sending a team of experts here to assess the situation. This correspondent also noticed that oil jetty 4 has suffered some damage, and that cracks had developed in oil jettys 2 and 3; port officials claimed jettys 1 and 2 were fine. The pipelines too have been twisted in places; they will have to be flushed to check for leakages.

The value of the damages suffered by the port is estimated to be around Rs 2,500 crore, but this excludes the damages (mostly civil) to the facilities of IOC, BPCL, HPCL, NDDB, or other companies located in the Kandla Complex.

Take IOC, for instance, whose Kandla-Bhatinda Pipeline (the lifeline for Reliance Petroleum too as it is the only outlet to markets in North and Central India) originates here. While the main pipeline and pump stations are safe, the civil structures have developed cracks and the optic fibre link (which is the basic requirement for the control system to work) is broken. This correspondent was prevented from visiting the IOC facility, but learns that the foundations of the product tanks (capacity: 50,000 tonnes each) have suffered some damage. However, there doesn't seem to be an oil spill. Another company that's been hit badly is the Indian Farmers Fertilisers Cooperative (IFFCO). IFFCO's Kandla unit has suffered severe damage, with losses estimated at Rs 50 crore.

After the devastating cyclone that hit Kandla and its adjoining areas in 1998, the port authorities had spent much of the last two years building defences against cyclones. Only, on January 26, 2001, disaster took the form of a trembling ground, not high winds.

-Ranju Sarkar

State Finances
Amidst all the disaster, the country's fifth richest state may have something to thank for: the fiscal aftershock is unlikely to be as devastating as the quake itself. For one, the Centre has stepped in with a Rs 500-crore relief package, which to that extent will reduce the strain on state finances. The government has also sought $1.5 billion loan from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, besides imposing a 2 per cent surcharge on personal and corporate income tax. The move will raise between Rs 1,300 and Rs 1,500 crore. Another Rs 1,500 crore could come from the mp Local Area Development Scheme, since the mps have been allowed to use the fund outside their own constituencies. Gujarat couldn't have done without the help. Despite 7.7 per cent economic growth, its tax receipts are lagging. For every hundred rupees of goods and services the state produces, taxes fetch just Rs 7.29-a figure lower than industry-scarce Kerala's Rs 8.33. Part of the anomaly is explained by the tax sops the state has had to offer to attract industries. What the quake may affect, however, is the perception of Gujarat as a safe industrial destination. Says Subir Gokarn, Principal Economist, NCAER: ''Foreign companies wanting to invest in Gujarat may delay their investment decisions. But in the long run, the state's industry-friendly policies will prevail.'' That should be music to Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel's ears.

-Seetha and Ashish Gupta

Kandla Dispatch-II
Proximity to the Kandla port may have benefited the companies that have operations in the Kandla Special Economic Zone in the past. But they paid the price of this proximity on January 26.

IPCA Labs: It doesn't take long for this correspondent to realise that IPCA is the worst affected in the Kandla sez. The magnitude of the damage to newly-built plant and machinery will ensure that it will take at least 18 months to resume operations. The building is in a mess; false ceilings are down, air-conditioning units have been ripped out, and nearly 60 per cent of the machinery at the plant-some imported, like its two Italian-made Ima Matic 90 machines (cost: Rs 1.2 crore), one of which may have to be written off, and the other off bounds in a severely cracked building-have suffered severe damages. Structural engineers have advised IPCA's executives not to enter the building. In a cruel twist of fate, this has happened just when IPCA has secured export orders worth Rs 60 crore. The only things that the earthquake has spared at the unit are the chillers placed on an adjoining building.

Export of gems, jewellery, textiles, drugs & pharmaceuticals hit.

IFFCO: Another plant that has been badly hit is the Indian Farmers Fertilisers Co-operative's (IFFCO) Kandla unit, which accounts for Rs 2,400 crore of the company's turnover. Chief General Manager of the unit, S.K. Mishra, estimates the damage at Rs 50 crore. This correspondent could see the damage caused to the 80,000-tonne capacity potash storage units, and the conveyor gallery (from the old plant to the storage area). Pipelines and cables also suffered damage, particularly the phosphoric pipeline on the coastal side and the pipelines under the gallery belt. Entry into the plant was restricted because of continuing tremors, but Mishra said partial operation would be restored within 10 to 12 weeks. The shut down of the Kandla port will impact the unit severely since it imports all its raw materials like murate of potash, phosphoric acid and ammonia. However, IFFCO's newly-built oil jetty has not been damaged. Considering that the unit produces 6,000 tonnes of fertiliser a day, the daily production loss (at Rs 12,000 per tonne) works out to Rs 7.2 crore.

HLL: The two toothpaste and cosmetics plants of HLL did not show signs of any major damage, except for broken tubelights and a few dents in the pipelines from the water treatment plant. A team of engineers from HLL's headquarters had flown into Kandla to assess the damage. Apparently, what saved the day for HLL were the massive steel columns that support the roof of the plant. And where the columns were not available for support, damage was apparent. For instance, the back wall of the rice plant-which is a tower-like reinforced concrete structure-had been badly damaged. D.C. Ghosh, factory manager of the Kandla unit, told this correspondent that the machines had not been damaged. Basic services like electricity, water, and lighting were also not affected at the unit, and Ghosh said the plant would be operational within 2-3 weeks after equipment and machinery check-up. Although the Kandla unit contributes Rs 160 crore to HLL's topline, Ghosh said that the shutdown would not lead to any significant loss in production, since the company's other units (like the ones at Yavatmal or Silvassa) could step up their own production. The unit officials would not hazard a guess on the extent of monetary losses, but BT estimates the cost of civil repairs could run up to Rs 2 crore.

-Ranju Sarkar

The Insurance Angle
California's quake of '94 saw 10 insurance companies go bust. This, when the death toll was around 60 and only five per cent of its citizens had quake insurance. Given this, shouldn't our insurance companies be quaking at the prospect of paying out insurance money post this quake?

Well, actually not. Some in the industry believe the payout for earthquake insurance will be around Rs 50 crore. That's because last May, the Tariff Advisory Committee (TAC) introduced a new fire insurance policy, which doesn't automatically include earthquake insurance. This made the policy 22 per cent cheaper. Earthquake insurance could be taken as an add-on. Says Harif Ansari, member, non-life, Insurance Regulation Development Authority and TAC member: ''This is how the policy is structured worldwide.''

The insurance companies were smart, customers weren't. Only five per cent of household fire insurance holders opted for quake insurance, 20 per cent of industries, and 40 per cent of large buildings. What'll pinch is Personal Accident Insurance of credit card holders and industrial workers. The expected payout: Rs 3,000 crore. Though, reinsurance will take care of four-fifths. Clearly, customers need to wisen up. 

-Bharat Ahluwalia

Reconstruction opportunities
At the risk of sounding perverse, the Gujarat quake could be just the shot in the arm infrastructure-related companies need. The cement sector could now train its sights on Gujarat. As could other industries: engineering and construction, telecom cables and equipment, and power sector, to name a few.

Sunil Parekh, Senior Director with the CII's Ahmedabad office, says that in Ahmedabad alone, over Rs 500 crore will be needed for reconstruction. ''Just the value of the buildings affected is in the region of Rs 1,400 crore. And 90 per cent of the population was not insured,'' says Parekh, who puts the costs of rebuilding the entire state at a conservative Rs 5,000 crore.

Says Ratanprakash Gupta, President, Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry. ''The cost of reconstruction could be over Rs 15,000 crore.''

So, to end on an even more perverse note: get in early into stocks that join the reconstruction bandwagon, and you too could be on the gravy train.

How Safe Are Your Cites?
Not very much. Delhi, for instance, is located on what is called Zone IV or high-damage risk zone. An earthquake of the magnitude that hit Bhuj could wipe out lakhs of lives in the capital. Worst affected will be Old Delhi, where buildings are hundreds of years old and, therefore, in different stages of decay. More people live per square kilometre in the Walled City than in other Indian cities. ''We can only hope and pray that a Gujarat-like earthquake does not happen in any of our metros. If it did, there will be devastation on an unprecedented scale,'' says J.H. Ansari, Head of Town Planning, School of Planning.

Other metros such as Chennai, Mumbai and Calcutta fall under Zone III (moderate-damage risk zone), but are prone to other natural disasters like cyclone. Yet, quake per se does not kill. It is the falling concrete and steel structures that kill people. And, typically, almost all the houses in Indian cities have been built with scant regard to the threat of earthquakes. On paper, the Ministry of Urban Development does have guidelines for quake-proofing buildings. But these are rarely followed. Not surprisingly, some of the buildings that folded up in Gujarat were newly built.

If the earthquake doesn't kill you, the delay in reaching help will. Sure, there does exist a National Disaster Management Committee and its contingency plan, but there's a slight problem. ''The plan exists only on paper, since it is unworkable. It is silent on the nitty-gritties of the plan: who will monitor the functioning, how the plan will be funded...issues that are vitally important in times of an emergency,'' says J.N. Upadhyay, a member of the Committee. Calamities like earthquakes may be natural. But the disasters are man-made.

-Ashish Gupta

 

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