|
What the Quake means for Gujarat
Inc.
(Contn.)
Kandla
Dispatch-I |
|
Estimated
loss per day due to shops and factories remaining closed: Rs
550 crore |
Even
72 hours after the earthquake the only contact the Kandla Port Trust
had with the world was through a single VSAT-line. The port itself
appears to have gotten off lightly, but the adjoining townships of
Gandhidham (corporate) and Adipur (residential) have borne the
brunt. Nearly 2,000 people have died in Gandhidham alone, with
30-odd high-rises coming down like a house of cards. But companies
and the people who work in them have been pre-occupied with saving
lives (their own and those of others); expectedly, no one has really
taken stock of the impact on business yet.
The Kandla Port Trust, for instance,
has put its entire machinery towards helping victims in Gandhidham.
With everyone scurrying around trying to put some semblance of order
into their rudely-disrupted lives, less than 20 per cent of the
port's engineers are reporting for work.
The port itself has been closed. The
Ports & Customs Office has inclined 15 degrees; that's a fate
shared by the main road leading to the port from Gandhidham, the
place where most companies have their facilities. Labour is scarce:
port-workers have fled either to adjoining areas or their homes back
in Bihar. As the deputy commissioner of customs at the port
explains: ''Everything has stopped. Workers have fled. I don't see
work being resumed before a month.''
The pillars on which the wharfs rest
at the port have developed cracks and this could impact the
load-bearing capability of the wharf. Till the quake hit, these
could handle up to 45,000 tonnes. Now no one is sure, and any one
who ventures onto the jetty can feel it vibrating mildly as the
waves hit its supports. The port administration has already sent out
an SOS to the Indian Institute of Technology, Chennai, which will be
sending a team of experts here to assess the situation. This
correspondent also noticed that oil jetty 4 has suffered some
damage, and that cracks had developed in oil jettys 2 and 3; port
officials claimed jettys 1 and 2 were fine. The pipelines too have
been twisted in places; they will have to be flushed to check for
leakages.
The value of the damages suffered by
the port is estimated to be around Rs 2,500 crore, but this excludes
the damages (mostly civil) to the facilities of IOC, BPCL, HPCL,
NDDB, or other companies located in the Kandla Complex.
Take IOC, for instance, whose
Kandla-Bhatinda Pipeline (the lifeline for Reliance Petroleum too as
it is the only outlet to markets in North and Central India)
originates here. While the main pipeline and pump stations are safe,
the civil structures have developed cracks and the optic fibre link
(which is the basic requirement for the control system to work) is
broken. This correspondent was prevented from visiting the IOC
facility, but learns that the foundations of the product tanks
(capacity: 50,000 tonnes each) have suffered some damage. However,
there doesn't seem to be an oil spill. Another company that's been
hit badly is the Indian Farmers Fertilisers Cooperative (IFFCO).
IFFCO's Kandla unit has suffered severe damage, with losses
estimated at Rs 50 crore.
After the devastating cyclone that
hit Kandla and its adjoining areas in 1998, the port authorities had
spent much of the last two years building defences against cyclones.
Only, on January 26, 2001, disaster took the form of a trembling
ground, not high winds.
-Ranju
Sarkar |
State
Finances |
Amidst
all the disaster, the country's fifth richest state may have
something to thank for: the fiscal aftershock is unlikely to be as
devastating as the quake itself. For one, the Centre has stepped in
with a Rs 500-crore relief package, which to that extent will reduce
the strain on state finances. The government has also sought $1.5
billion loan from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank,
besides imposing a 2 per cent surcharge on personal and corporate
income tax. The move will raise between Rs 1,300 and Rs 1,500 crore.
Another Rs 1,500 crore could come from the mp Local Area Development
Scheme, since the mps have been allowed to use the fund outside
their own constituencies. Gujarat couldn't have done without the
help. Despite 7.7 per cent economic growth, its tax receipts are
lagging. For every hundred rupees of goods and services the state
produces, taxes fetch just Rs 7.29-a figure lower than
industry-scarce Kerala's Rs 8.33. Part of the anomaly is explained
by the tax sops the state has had to offer to attract industries.
What the quake may affect, however, is the perception of Gujarat as
a safe industrial destination. Says Subir Gokarn, Principal
Economist, NCAER: ''Foreign companies wanting to invest in Gujarat
may delay their investment decisions. But in the long run, the
state's industry-friendly policies will prevail.'' That should be
music to Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel's ears.
-Seetha
and Ashish
Gupta |
Kandla
Dispatch-II |
Proximity
to the Kandla port may have benefited the companies that have
operations in the Kandla Special Economic Zone in the past. But they
paid the price of this proximity on January 26.
IPCA Labs: It doesn't take long for
this correspondent to realise that IPCA is the worst affected in the
Kandla sez. The magnitude of the damage to newly-built plant and
machinery will ensure that it will take at least 18 months to resume
operations. The building is in a mess; false ceilings are down,
air-conditioning units have been ripped out, and nearly 60 per cent
of the machinery at the plant-some imported, like its two
Italian-made Ima Matic 90 machines (cost: Rs 1.2 crore), one of
which may have to be written off, and the other off bounds in a
severely cracked building-have suffered severe damages. Structural
engineers have advised IPCA's executives not to enter the building.
In a cruel twist of fate, this has happened just when IPCA has
secured export orders worth Rs 60 crore. The only things that the
earthquake has spared at the unit are the chillers placed on an
adjoining building.
|
Export of
gems, jewellery, textiles, drugs & pharmaceuticals hit. |
IFFCO: Another plant that has been
badly hit is the Indian Farmers Fertilisers Co-operative's (IFFCO)
Kandla unit, which accounts for Rs 2,400 crore of the company's
turnover. Chief General Manager of the unit, S.K. Mishra, estimates
the damage at Rs 50 crore. This correspondent could see the damage
caused to the 80,000-tonne capacity potash storage units, and the
conveyor gallery (from the old plant to the storage area). Pipelines
and cables also suffered damage, particularly the phosphoric
pipeline on the coastal side and the pipelines under the gallery
belt. Entry into the plant was restricted because of continuing
tremors, but Mishra said partial operation would be restored within
10 to 12 weeks. The shut down of the Kandla port will impact the
unit severely since it imports all its raw materials like murate of
potash, phosphoric acid and ammonia. However, IFFCO's newly-built
oil jetty has not been damaged. Considering that the unit produces
6,000 tonnes of fertiliser a day, the daily production loss (at Rs
12,000 per tonne) works out to Rs 7.2 crore.
HLL: The two toothpaste and cosmetics
plants of HLL did not show signs of any major damage, except for
broken tubelights and a few dents in the pipelines from the water
treatment plant. A team of engineers from HLL's headquarters had
flown into Kandla to assess the damage. Apparently, what saved the
day for HLL were the massive steel columns that support the roof of
the plant. And where the columns were not available for support,
damage was apparent. For instance, the back wall of the rice
plant-which is a tower-like reinforced concrete structure-had been
badly damaged. D.C. Ghosh, factory manager of the Kandla unit, told
this correspondent that the machines had not been damaged. Basic
services like electricity, water, and lighting were also not
affected at the unit, and Ghosh said the plant would be operational
within 2-3 weeks after equipment and machinery check-up. Although
the Kandla unit contributes Rs 160 crore to HLL's topline, Ghosh
said that the shutdown would not lead to any significant loss in
production, since the company's other units (like the ones at
Yavatmal or Silvassa) could step up their own production. The unit
officials would not hazard a guess on the extent of monetary losses,
but BT estimates the cost of civil repairs could run up to Rs 2
crore.
-Ranju
Sarkar |
The
Insurance Angle |
California's
quake of '94 saw 10 insurance companies go bust. This, when the
death toll was around 60 and only five per cent of its citizens had
quake insurance. Given this, shouldn't our insurance companies be
quaking at the prospect of paying out insurance money post this
quake?
Well, actually not. Some in the
industry believe the payout for earthquake insurance will be around
Rs 50 crore. That's because last May, the Tariff Advisory Committee
(TAC) introduced a new fire insurance policy, which doesn't
automatically include earthquake insurance. This made the policy 22
per cent cheaper. Earthquake insurance could be taken as an add-on.
Says Harif Ansari, member, non-life, Insurance Regulation
Development Authority and TAC member: ''This is how the policy is
structured worldwide.''
The insurance companies were smart,
customers weren't. Only five per cent of household fire insurance
holders opted for quake insurance, 20 per cent of industries, and 40
per cent of large buildings. What'll pinch is Personal Accident
Insurance of credit card holders and industrial workers. The
expected payout: Rs 3,000 crore. Though, reinsurance will take care
of four-fifths. Clearly, customers need to wisen up.
-Bharat
Ahluwalia |
Reconstruction
opportunities |
At the
risk of sounding perverse, the Gujarat quake could be just the shot
in the arm infrastructure-related companies need. The cement sector
could now train its sights on Gujarat. As could other industries:
engineering and construction, telecom cables and equipment, and
power sector, to name a few.
Sunil Parekh, Senior Director with
the CII's Ahmedabad office, says that in Ahmedabad alone, over Rs
500 crore will be needed for reconstruction. ''Just the value of the
buildings affected is in the region of Rs 1,400 crore. And 90 per
cent of the population was not insured,'' says Parekh, who puts the
costs of rebuilding the entire state at a conservative Rs 5,000
crore.
Says Ratanprakash Gupta, President,
Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry. ''The cost of
reconstruction could be over Rs 15,000 crore.''
So, to end on an even more perverse
note: get in early into stocks that join the reconstruction
bandwagon, and you too could be on the gravy train. |
How
Safe Are Your Cites? |
Not
very much. Delhi, for instance, is located on what is called Zone IV
or high-damage risk zone. An earthquake of the magnitude that hit
Bhuj could wipe out lakhs of lives in the capital. Worst affected
will be Old Delhi, where buildings are hundreds of years old and,
therefore, in different stages of decay. More people live per square
kilometre in the Walled City than in other Indian cities. ''We can
only hope and pray that a Gujarat-like earthquake does not happen in
any of our metros. If it did, there will be devastation on an
unprecedented scale,'' says J.H. Ansari, Head of Town Planning,
School of Planning.
Other metros such as Chennai, Mumbai
and Calcutta fall under Zone III (moderate-damage risk zone), but
are prone to other natural disasters like cyclone. Yet, quake per se
does not kill. It is the falling concrete and steel structures that
kill people. And, typically, almost all the houses in Indian cities
have been built with scant regard to the threat of earthquakes. On
paper, the Ministry of Urban Development does have guidelines for
quake-proofing buildings. But these are rarely followed. Not
surprisingly, some of the buildings that folded up in Gujarat were
newly built.
If the earthquake doesn't kill you,
the delay in reaching help will. Sure, there does exist a National
Disaster Management Committee and its contingency plan, but there's
a slight problem. ''The plan exists only on paper, since it is
unworkable. It is silent on the nitty-gritties of the plan: who will
monitor the functioning, how the plan will be funded...issues that
are vitally important in times of an emergency,'' says J.N. Upadhyay,
a member of the Committee. Calamities like earthquakes may be
natural. But the disasters are man-made.
-Ashish
Gupta |
|