At
the top of my list of achievements is the fact that we have a functioning
democracy capable of handling, albeit imperfectly, the political
expectations of a highly pluralist society. A pluralist society
such as ours needs a functioning democracy to progress and we haven't
done badly in building a foundation in this area. Indian democracy
is clearly much better than what Galbraith once described as a ''functioning
anarchy''-and that is no small achievement for a country of our
size and per capita income.
In economic terms, the record depends upon
the time period one has in mind. Raj Krishna's affectionately derisive
reference to the ''Hindu Rate of growth'' of around 3.5 per cent
observed up to the end of the 1970s, made many people despair of
India's future. In the early 1970s, the Club of Rome even wrote
off India as unsalvageable in what was called the ''triage hypothesis''.
But performance improved sharply in the 1980s when our economic
policies began to be reshaped. The uptrend continued in the 1990s
because of the economic reforms of 1991, which brought about fundamental
changes.
Taking the 1980s and the 1990s together, India's
growth performance puts her in the top seven or eight developing
countries. We have not done as well as China or East Asia, but we
have done much better than others.
The three-year period 1994-95 to 1996-97 produced
a growth rate of 7.5 per cent that created new confidence that the
economy could transit to a higher growth path, while simultaneously
integrating with the world economy. Both transitions are vital for
the future and are now built into public expectations. The 10th
Plan target of 8 per cent growth reflects both the new sense of
confidence and the new expectations.
This target is not an easy task. The growth
rate has slipped considerably in recent years and is now down to
5 per cent. The reasons for the slippage are well-known. There is
a wide professional consensus that we need a determined push on
second-generation reforms. It is also necessary to complete the
biggest first-generation reform, where there has been major regression,
that is, reducing the fiscal deficit. The solutions are known. If
the political will to push forward can be mobilised, few doubt that
the economy will deliver.
Faster economic growth has also enabled us
to reduce poverty. There was very little progress in this dimension
through the 1970s when growth was low. In the 1980s and 1990s growth
accelerated poverty has also come down. Not as much as we wanted
or targeted, but markedly nevertheless. The percentage of the population
in poverty at 27 per cent of the total is still too large and many
of those above the poverty-line lack other critical amenities. But
there can be little doubt that both the scale and nature of the
problem have changed for the better.
There are other important achievements, which
augur well for the future. The rate of growth of population, which
was above 2 per cent per year for decades is finally slowing down.
The total fertility rate has declined impressively in the southern
states. It is still too high in most of the northern states, but
there is every reason to believe that the demographic transition
is under way and the problem can be tackled.
Our literacy rate was as low as 18 per cent
at the time of independence. In the initial years after Independence,
we glibly assumed that universal literacy would be easy to achieve
but we did little to work towards this objective. We have therefore
lagged behind other developing countries in this respect, but it
would be wrong to say that we haven't made any progress. Literacy
has now increased to 62 per cent. Other indicators of educational
attainment such as enrolment in schools also show huge improvements.
Of course, the quality of education remains a major problem, but
there is little doubt that we are in a much sharper position today
than we were earlier and that the situation is improving every day.
More than anything else, what we have achieved
in the last 50 years is a sense of confidence, a willingness to
criticise our policies and change them if necessary, a willingness
to compare ourselves with others in the world. Hopefully, we have
also achieved a willingness to be bold.
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