JANUARY 20, 2002
 Economy
 Governance
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No Revival Yet
The CII-Ascon Survey of 110 manufacturing and 12 services sectors reconfirms what many were fearing: that an economic revival isn't around the corner yet. The culprit is the basic goods sector, which is given a 45 per cent weightage by the survey in the manufacturing sector..

Show Me The Money
It seems the Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha is going to have a tough time balancing the government's books this fiscal end. Estimates of gross tax collections for the period April-December 2001, point to a shortfall. Unless the kitty makes up in the last quarter, the fiscal situation will turn precarious.
More Net Specials
 
 
What Have We Achieved?
The years of liberalisation haven't fully made up for decades of socialism.
Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Director, EVO, IMF


A
t the top of my list of achievements is the fact that we have a functioning democracy capable of handling, albeit imperfectly, the political expectations of a highly pluralist society. A pluralist society such as ours needs a functioning democracy to progress and we haven't done badly in building a foundation in this area. Indian democracy is clearly much better than what Galbraith once described as a ''functioning anarchy''-and that is no small achievement for a country of our size and per capita income.

In economic terms, the record depends upon the time period one has in mind. Raj Krishna's affectionately derisive reference to the ''Hindu Rate of growth'' of around 3.5 per cent observed up to the end of the 1970s, made many people despair of India's future. In the early 1970s, the Club of Rome even wrote off India as unsalvageable in what was called the ''triage hypothesis''. But performance improved sharply in the 1980s when our economic policies began to be reshaped. The uptrend continued in the 1990s because of the economic reforms of 1991, which brought about fundamental changes.

Taking the 1980s and the 1990s together, India's growth performance puts her in the top seven or eight developing countries. We have not done as well as China or East Asia, but we have done much better than others.

The three-year period 1994-95 to 1996-97 produced a growth rate of 7.5 per cent that created new confidence that the economy could transit to a higher growth path, while simultaneously integrating with the world economy. Both transitions are vital for the future and are now built into public expectations. The 10th Plan target of 8 per cent growth reflects both the new sense of confidence and the new expectations.

This target is not an easy task. The growth rate has slipped considerably in recent years and is now down to 5 per cent. The reasons for the slippage are well-known. There is a wide professional consensus that we need a determined push on second-generation reforms. It is also necessary to complete the biggest first-generation reform, where there has been major regression, that is, reducing the fiscal deficit. The solutions are known. If the political will to push forward can be mobilised, few doubt that the economy will deliver.

Faster economic growth has also enabled us to reduce poverty. There was very little progress in this dimension through the 1970s when growth was low. In the 1980s and 1990s growth accelerated poverty has also come down. Not as much as we wanted or targeted, but markedly nevertheless. The percentage of the population in poverty at 27 per cent of the total is still too large and many of those above the poverty-line lack other critical amenities. But there can be little doubt that both the scale and nature of the problem have changed for the better.

There are other important achievements, which augur well for the future. The rate of growth of population, which was above 2 per cent per year for decades is finally slowing down. The total fertility rate has declined impressively in the southern states. It is still too high in most of the northern states, but there is every reason to believe that the demographic transition is under way and the problem can be tackled.

Our literacy rate was as low as 18 per cent at the time of independence. In the initial years after Independence, we glibly assumed that universal literacy would be easy to achieve but we did little to work towards this objective. We have therefore lagged behind other developing countries in this respect, but it would be wrong to say that we haven't made any progress. Literacy has now increased to 62 per cent. Other indicators of educational attainment such as enrolment in schools also show huge improvements. Of course, the quality of education remains a major problem, but there is little doubt that we are in a much sharper position today than we were earlier and that the situation is improving every day.

More than anything else, what we have achieved in the last 50 years is a sense of confidence, a willingness to criticise our policies and change them if necessary, a willingness to compare ourselves with others in the world. Hopefully, we have also achieved a willingness to be bold.

 

 

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