The Latin communitas, for common, is the origin of both communicate and community. That little etymological nugget seems an apt beginning for this essay: communities, after all, could hold the key to the media and communications business in the future. That's right, you've heard this before, from either Bo Peabody who started Tripod, or from the legion of dotcommers who thought the community the finest form of media, and, in a prestidigitatorial sleight-of-words, the purest medium of communication (anyone here heard of word-of-mouth?). They were right but, alas, they were before their time.

When TELCO execs speak of the network effect that will increase traffic-every incremental connection increases the flow of traffic in a network by a factor greater than one (you get a phone and call three of your friends; they call you back the next day)-they are, in effect, referring indirectly to the community effect. Japan's i-Mode, even the SMS revolution in urban India, are manifestations of the same effect. Communities will lie at the core of all human behaviour: how we share ideas; what we read or see on the tube; and where we shop and what we buy. Technology will allow media and communication companies (aren't they the same?) deliver high quality content in any form: print, electronic, multimedia, and through a variety of channels. Much of the content will be customised. Magazines will be able to offer multiple versions to suit different customer communities (or segments). Indeed, there's a story, probably apocryphal, doing the rounds of the Indian tech circuit of how Sports Illustrated is wired enough to publish 128 different versions of the same issue with just a marginal increase in cost. If that story is true, it shows the way of the future. If it isn't, don't worry, we'll get there soon.

So, what will communities mean for traditional media and communication businesses. Service providers-internet, cable, and telephony-will merge. And the most innovative among them will build low-cost business models that will enable them sell to the rural middle class, even the poor. The content business will see consolidation and vernacularisation as newspapers, magazines, and television channels mature into entities that mirror social reality as it exists. Already, the most watched channels in any segment, entertainment, movies, and news, are Hindi-language ones. And regional language television channels (Hindi, being the national language is excluded) account for 30 per cent of total television advertising revenues-a figure that could move up to 45 per cent by 2005.

Other predictions: the internet will eventually become everything it promised to be a few years back and by end-2005, India will boast 61 million netizens; the higher economic strata will abandon cable for DTH (Direct-To-Home) technologies by 2005 (if regulation paves the way, that is); Doordarshan will probably not attract any advertisements that year although it will be the only channel in close to 50 million rural homes; radio, especially that of the satellite variety may make a comeback; and the government, spurred by the realisation that television is more of an opinion shaper than print, will probably allow foreign direct investment into print media.

The Indian Telecom Scene in 2010

Numbers constitute the easiest part of this exercise: by 2010, the number of fixed line connections in India will swell to 170 million and the number of cellular connections to five crore. Futurists may like to speak of a future where subscribers will have to live with just one number. Call that number and if they are at home, within easy reach of a landline, that will ring; if they are on the road, their mobile will beep; if they are at work, the call will automatically be re-routed to their office extension; and if they are in a meeting, the call will end up at a voice-mail service. That future may very well be possible, but we are unlikely to see any of it in India by 2010.

Tariffs, for all kinds of telecommunication services, voice, and data, will continue to fall. Indeed, by 2010 the 'local call' that costs Rs 1.35 for 180 seconds now, could be all but free. Cellular tariffs will be lower. And national and international long-distance tariffs certainly won't be as high as they are now. At the consumer-end of the business, companies will seek to differentiate themselves from their competitors by focusing on branding in a very Fast Moving Consumer Goods-sort of way. India will have thriving domestic long-distance operators, and international long distance operators from the private sector by 2010. However, it is difficult to predict whether all of today's telecom players, or any of them, will be around then.

Telecommunications is an industry that has shown itself to be heavy on global consolidation. It is very likely that India's largest companies be taken over by Europe's largest or America's largest telecom player. It is equally likely that big Indian TELCOs, like the BPL-Birla-Tata-at&t combine, Bharti Enterprises, and Reliance Infocom continue to thrive.

-Abir Pal