We
cannot understand the eating habits of a population by looking at
what people eat in restaurants. We would be looking at the wrong
places because most people do not eat in restaurants. Similarly,
we cannot hope to understand the workplaces of the future by looking
at corporations. Because corporations as we know them will not be
the workplaces of the future. Therefore, if we want to understand
what the workplaces of the future will be like, we will have to
look outside business corporations.
As I sit here in my corner office in a downtown
Mumbai office block, I look out on rows of roadside stalls from
one window, and a fishing community from the other. I see hundreds
of people down there swarming around at their work, many times more
than the numbers in my office. And this in downtown Mumbai. A hundred
miles from here, there are many millions more engaged in what we
would call the 'unorganised sector', which accounts for more than
90 per cent of the employment in the country.
Charles Handy predicts that fewer and fewer
people will work in large corporations in the developed economies
in the future. In Britain, by 1996, 67 per cent of registered businesses
had only one employee, the owner, and only 11 per cent of businesses
employed more than five people. In India too, the trend is towards
lesser employment in large businesses and government as they 'downsize'
their workforces.
Many of those who are displaced from large
organisations will create small enterprises, most likely service
enterprises. And some will call themselves 'consultants'. For many
of these people, workplace will be their home from where they will
operate with a cell phone and a computer. Bill Gates had predicted
that by 2050, half of the working population would be working from
home. I see four trends driving the changes:
- Telecommunications and computers will increasingly
enable people-including farmers, fishermen, and small traders-to
change the way they work. As the use of technology spreads, many
more will do so.
- Getting financed will be easier for small
enterprises. Many banks recognise the opportunities for micro-lending.
Therefore, many more smaller ventures will be born.
- There will be increased participation in
decision-making at the grassroots levels. Not only will this be
propelled by the first two trends, but it will also be reinforced
by the belief that empowerment will improve productivity.
- The fourth is the downsizing of large enterprises,
which will result in the growth of small enterprises and solo
workers.
- Putting all this together, I see three kinds
of workplaces in which the majority of people will work 25 years
into the future. The first is small enterprises in both rural
and urban settings. In many of these enterprises, the members
will not work on the premises. They will, like the dabbawallas
of Mumbai, be out in the streets or, like the members of milk
cooperatives, on their farms. There will be at least three significant
changes in the way such enterprises will operate: One, much larger
numbers of women will participate in them. Two, computers and
communication technologies will play an important role in their
operations. And, three, the governance systems in these enterprises
will be participatory: there may be one owner, or many owners,
but the workers will be involved in many decisions.
The second important workplace will be the
home. More housewives will get involved with ways to supplement
the family income, and many more people will choose to or be compelled
to break out on their own. Most of these people will create workspaces
in their homes to carry out their work efficiently.
This inexorable trend towards smaller, and
even one-person organisations, will create a need for these micro-enterprises
to network with each other. Some of this networking will take place
over telephones and computers. But I imagine that a lot of it will
have to be done face-to-face periodically. Therefore, another important
workplace will be spaces in which meetings and workshops will take
place.
The future, as someone said, is here now; only,
we have not noticed it yet.
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