The
question itself contains within it the obvious presumption that
foreign direct investment is eminently desirable. I have no quarrel
with that presumption, but I do wish to place it in a context
that will support the roadmap I've been asked to lay out.
Towards that end, it may be useful to restate
a basic tenet of development economics. Economists employ a rule
of thumb labelled the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio or ICOR,
which is essentially a formula that articulates the quantum of
investment, or capital, required to achieve a certain rate of
growth. So, if we target a growth rate of 8 per cent in Indian
GDP, we will, per force, need to ensure a rate of investment of
32 per cent, given an ICOR of 4.
India's savings rate has not yet touched
the levels that this formula tells us is sine qua non for ensuring
the growth target we have in mind, and indeed, must have in mind
if we are to banish poverty within a reasonable time frame. When
there is a gap between the savings rate within a country and the
rate of investment required for achieving the targeted growth
rate, then that gap is usually met by-you guessed it-foreign direct
investment (FDI).
Now that is essentially a mathematical argument
in favour of FDI. In addition, I'd like to cite four more reasons
in support of FDI that are soft in nature. First, and most important
in my view, is that foreign direct investment brings technology
and innovative practices to India. Even when it is brought in
by MNC-controlled subsidiaries, there is an inevitable osmosis
of knowledge that takes place through their Indian employees,
who leave and join other firms or even better, become entrepreneurs
themselves.
Secondly, overseas firms can deploy large
quantities of capital, which is just what the doctor ordered for
large infrastructure projects. Indian entrepreneurs can, by and
large, access whatever capital they need today, but there are
still only a handful of domestic business houses that are capable
of undertaking, or willing to make the kind of investments needed
for long-gestation, uncertain infrastructure plays.
Information technology alone
is not going to solve our employment needs. Despite great
success thus far, the reality is that it employs less than
1.5 million people today |
Thirdly, the entrance of some key global players
can provide India vital access to downstream elements of the value
chain. For example, if India wants to become a major exporter
of agro-products and processed foods, then it is critical to gain
access to global retail outlets and brands which overseas consumers
trust. Encouraging large global players to enter India encourages
them to view India not just as a market, but as a key participant
in their supply chain.
Fourthly, FDI brings in players who raise
the scale of the industries in which they operate. Let's take
the retail sector, which is the subject of intense debate. If
a giant global player comes in and targets the procurement of
$5-billion (Rs 22,500-crore) worth of goods annually from India,
then this will allow Indian producers of all kinds of goods to
make a quantum leap in their scale of production with dramatically
reduced risk. We seem, therefore, to be missing the point that
FDI in the retail sector is not just about retail, but is about
making India a manufacturing superpower!
This last point is crucial. We need to understand,
once and for all that information technology (it) alone is not
going to solve our employment needs. Despite great success thus
far, the reality is that it employs less than 1.5 million people
today. I recall Bill Gates saying at a Confederation of Indian
Industry (CII) meeting in Bangalore that India could not ignore
the manufacturing sector if it was to achieve sustainable growth
and provide employment opportunities. The multiplier effect in
manufacturing is far greater and, therefore, more valuable for
a country with our population and demographics.
So,
the bottom line is that we need to up the ante in our efforts
to attract FDI, and we need to focus afresh on investment in manufacturing.
What, specifically, do we need to do?
Let me begin with a prescription that is
obvious and, yet, worth restating: we cannot, and must not, let
our GDP growth rate slip below 8 per cent. We must understand
that no amount of improvement in our customer-friendliness and
easing of regulations will help, unless we are growing at a rate
that makes the world sit up and take notice. Arguably, there are
many areas in which our regulatory framework is superior to China's.
But it is steroidal growth which keeps the legions of investors
coming. For this, the political leadership, from the Prime Minster
down, must make it an unequivocal virtue to pursue GDP growth
targets.
I recall when, with a CII delegation, we
met B.G. Lee, then Prime Minister in-waiting of Singapore, and
asked him about his interest in India, he said simply: "How
can I ignore a country growing at 10 per cent?" He was referring
to the latest quarterly growth figure for India and then proceeded
to ask whether that growth was year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter,
because Singapore had just announced 11 per cent q-o-q growth.
I found it striking that a Prime Minister was so focussed on growth
metrics and was so constructively competitive about relative GDP
figures. Happily, our own Prime Minister recently referred to
the half-yearly achievement of 8 per cent growth with great pride
and asserted that he was aspiring to 10 per cent levels. That
kind of talk will do more to encourage FDI than any single other
measure.
No amount of easing of regulations and improvement
in our customer-friendliness will help unless we are growing
at a rate that makes the world sit up and take notice |
Coming to more mundane, but important measures,
I do not want to adduce a lengthy laundry list of things to do,
especially since such lists are ubiquitous and are quoted ad nauseam.
I'd like to focus on just three items which deserve priority,
and could radically transform the investment climate.
1) Infrastructure, as I've mentioned earlier,
is an area starved of investment. In the World Economic Forum's
latest global competitiveness report, "inadequate supply
of infrastructure" was by far the highest ranked impediment
to doing business in India. Hence, attracting infrastructure investment
has the double benefit of inducing growth as well as kick-starting
a virtuous cycle of investment in all other sectors of the economy.
In particular, we stand no chance of becoming a manufacturing
power without the bedrock foundation of efficient infrastructure.
In order to make headway here, we need to speedily put together
templates for various infrastructure projects. By this, I mean
a set of rules and guidelines for financing, implementing and
operating large projects in a transparent manner. Despite occasional
hiccups, the government did manage to set in place such guidelines
as well as a regulatory authority for mobile telephony, and the
result is that we are today the fastest growing mobile phone market
in the world. In our own group of companies, we experienced inordinate
delays while bidding for South Asia's first privatised water supply
project in Tirupur. Many important international participants
in our consortium lost interest along the way. Five years later,
thanks largely due to the persistence of the Indian bidders, the
project is successfully underway, and there is now a template
which will, no doubt, shorten the gestation period of new water
supply projects.
2)
India's Special Economic Zones are at the point of take-off. The
government has moved with alacrity to conceptualise SEZ legislation
and to create an open market for the participation of private
enterprise. Indeed, it makes great sense to emulate China, which
began its transformation through SEZs that served as laboratories
for more widespread reforms. In fact, one could argue that such
an approach has even greater merit in a democracy, where it is
far more difficult to override vested interests and bring dramatic
change overnight in legislation and in urban landscapes. How much
easier it is to lay down new infrastructure and a new way of living
in a brand new township than it is in Mumbai! But if these zones
are to attract new manufacturing investment, then they must have
a more flexible labour policy than what exists outside the zone.
Neither the central government nor the state governments have
shown the courage to take this step. Surely, it should not take
much courage to institute this policy within a limited geography?
If one enlightened state government enacts these new rules, it
will receive a torrent of investments to the detriment of its
competitors.
3) My last and simplest recommendation: open
the retail sector to FDI. I will not belabour this point since
I have already elaborated on the reasons for doing so earlier.
What bears repetition is that a thriving and world class retail
sector is not just an engine for consumption and growth, but also
the route to becoming a world-scale manufacturing force.
There is one final and overriding
reason why we must become more hospitable to FDI: in our typical
fashion of underestimating ourselves, we have overlooked the fact
that today, many Indian companies are on the verge of becoming
robust multinationals and will seek to conquer new territories
abroad. These new champions are confident of meeting foreign competition
in the Indian market and do not need the security of non-tariff
barriers. Soon, our government will have to support these companies
in prying open lucrative overseas markets. As a nation that will
nurture new multinationals, we will, therefore, be doing ourselves
a favour by throwing a welcome mat down for FDI and setting a
trend that other countries will necessarily have to follow!
The author is Vice Chairman
and Managing Director, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd
|