The
last East Asian Summit held in Kuala Lumpur had strongly advocated
for a much wider Asian Economic Community. Behind the scenes though,
China had been lobbying with some of its Asean friends that the
key nations driving the larger economic community must remain the
10 Asean nations plus three, i.e., China, South Korea and Japan.
However, India has found support from Japan to make the East
Asian Summit process a much wider one with Asia-Pacific dimensions.
India has been calling for a pan-Asian free trade agreement on
the lines of NAFTA (North American Free Trade agreement) and EU.
It is not clear whether China has softened its position in this
regard. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expected to have some
discussions with the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on how to take
the pan-Asian economic community idea forward.
Trade between China and Asean reached $160 billion in 2006, an
increase of more than 23 per cent from the previous year, is much
higher than India’s trade with Asean. In 2006-07, total
trade is likely to cross $30-billion mark. China and Asean decided
to reduce tariffs on more than 7,000 products from both sides
in the meet in Cebu, Philippines. Asean and China also signed
a new deal to open access to each other's markets by liberalising
services in tourism, telecom, energy and computers.
However, pruning of India’s negative list did not impress
the Asean much. The main roadblock in clinching the agreement
for trade in goods, at present, is concerning the negative list,
which includes several sensitive items for India like textiles,
auto parts, chemicals and agri products. Asean had earlier turned
down India’s proposal to set the tariff rate quota for agri
products like palmoil, tea and pepper.
Besides its negative list of 490 items, Asean has asked for gradual
tariff reduction on politically-sensitive items such as palm oil,
pepper and tea. India is willing to offer tariffs of 50 per cent
to 60 per cent on these items by 2022.
Currently, these items carry tariffs ranging from 90 per cent
to 100 per cent. Asean, however, wants India to reduce tariffs
rapidly. This is the biggest issue that needs to be resolved before
a full FTA is finalised.
Indian officials are confident of thrashing out a compromise
formula, as Asean has accepted that the negative items will not
exceed a certain ratio of trade. By laying this principle, the
two sides have essentially moved away from product-wise bargaining.
Within 5 per cent of total trade, the two sides can have any number
of items on the negative list.
Briefing the media after the India-Asean meet, commerce minister
Kamal Nath said apart from negative list, the two sides have to
pay attention to some highly sensitive items for which a compromise
formula will be worked out.
Though an FTA is quite important for India, it could not be at
the expense of sacrificing the interests of domestic industry
and agriculture. If a full tariff liberalisation is undertaken
with the Asean, the edible oil sector in India will be the hardest
hit. Also, production displacement would take place in spices,
tea and coffee. So, it is very important to safeguard the interests
of producers and cultivators of these crops.
India needs to ask the Asean side to revisit their negative list,
so that the tariff concessions to be eventually offered by them
would significantly expand market access for Indian industry.
Another area, which India should strongly take up with Asean,
is the need for quick implementation of the agreements on services
and investment. Asean’s total import of commercial services
to the tune of $130 billion in 2005 signifies enormous scope for
expanding India's exports of services in the region.
However, India should consider a further reduction of its negative
list only if Asean also makes similar concessions. |