S&P
raised its rating for India from BB+ to BBB-, technically, a raise
of only one level, but one which crosses the crucial threshold
to investment grade. S&P cited India's strong economic prospects
and external balance sheet, deep capital market and an improving
fiscal situation in raising the rating to the lowest rung of investment
grade at BBB- from a speculative grade BB+/B.
The economy has averaged growth of about
8 per cent over the past three fiscal years. In the first half
of the fiscal year 2006-07, it grew at an annual pace of 9.1 percent.
S&P said further upgrades would depend on sustaining policies
to bring down government debt and the interest burden, and reforms
that would lift growth prospects and income levels.
However, some people are asking if the hike
in ratings to investment grade make a big difference for the Indian
economy. They ague that India has received over $60 billion in
foreign portfolio investments and direct investment in the last
three-and-half years and moreover, there is about $30 billion
of outstanding commercial borrowings. These duly are an acknowledgement
of India's economic prospects, strong external sector and improving
government finances.
Investments in shares helped India's foreign-exchange
reserves to rise to a record $178.13 billion in January, according
to central bank data. India has the world's largest reserves of
foreign exchange.
To add to the growth story, the Indian banks
are now taking baby-steps in the US, UK and Asia Pacific region.
In the years to come a substantial portion of the revenues of
these banks' will come from their overseas operations. The growing
interest of the private equity firms in India is also a case in
point.
The market already knows and has discounted
all the information that goes into the ratings. That the rating
agencies failed to anticipate the Asian crisis of the late 1990s
and the Enron fiasco has also eroded their credibility.
However, the upgrade does have subtle and
long-term implications. The surfeit of liquidity has substantially
increased the global risk appetite, enabling even second rung
Indian companies to raise capital easily.
But capital such as pension funds, which
is more stable and long-term oriented, is yet to come into India
in a big way. The S&P upgrade could help make that happen,
as most such funds are constrained by their mandate to invest
only in investment grade paper.
And in the event of different ratings they
usually go by the more conservative one. Now that all the three
major rating agencies - S&P, Moody's and Fitch -have India
as investment grade, even the conservative money can flow into
Indian markets, which would particularly help infrastructure financing.
Higher sovereign ratings will also help local
companies and banks to sell bonds overseas. Bank of Baroda plans
to sell as much as $1.5 billion of medium-term notes to finance
overseas expansion. In January, ICICI Bank sold $2 billion of
dollar-denominated bonds, the most raised overseas by an Indian
company, to meet demand for loans as the nation's middle class
grows.
But India needs to worry about foreign inflow
of capital, which pales when compared to the money that goes into
China. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India is still weak.
From April 2005 to March 2006, India received $5.7 billion in
FDI, less than a tenth of China's $60.3 billion in the same period.
The Indian government expects FDI to rise to around $10 billion
in the year to March 2007.
Also, due to India's weak fiscal profile,
ratings remained constrained and, moreover, its high Government
debt burden and deficit, is still one of the worst among all rated
sovereigns. The ratings agency called for more reforms to improve
India's public finances and lift the sustainable growth rate,
saying large government deficits remained a risk and that inappropriate
policy could put the ratings under pressure.
However, markets gave a thumb up to the S&P's
ratings. Buoyed by the upgradation of the country's rating to
investment grade, the Sensex closed at an all-time peak of 14,403.77
on February 2.
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