Risk Management
2000
ContinuedBut why would a corporate that has, presumably, gone abroad in search of
cheaper capital deliberately exchange these borrowings for more expensive rupee finance?
Well, apart from not having to worry about the exchange rate risks at all, it can leverage
its competitive advantage in the foreign exchange markets to shave off points from the
domestic prime lending rates (PLRs).
CFOs need not only consider rupee-dollar swaps; cross-currency swaps are a neat method
of creating natural hedges. For instance, suppose a firm's exports are denominated in yen,
but its ECBs are dollar-denominated. Then, the CFO can swap his dollar obligations for yen
obligations, and hedge the latter through his export earnings.
SECURED EXCHANGEABLE BONDS. A currency swap shifts the
foreign exchange risk to a counter-party; a secured exchangeable bond shifts the currency
risk to the investor by adding a currency swap option to the basic Euro-bond. For the
investor, the option to convert Euro-bonds to rupee debt that offers rupee rates of
interest will be in the money if the interest rate differential outweighs the risk of
currency depreciation. Such a conversion will, no doubt, hike interest costs, but it
eliminates the foreign exchange risk.
Offering the option can also lower the initial coupon rate. For example, Morgan Stanley
used this instrument to raise over $200 million for an Indonesian company at a
phenomenally-low coupon rate of 2 per cent last year. For some obscure reason, the
regulations now ban Indian companies from adding such swap options to their Euro-bond
issues even though conversion could result in a lower net foreign exchange outgo. A move
towards full convertibility, however, should remove such anomalies.
The CFO's Need:
Ensuring That Interest Rate Volatility Does Not Cause Financing Costs To Balloon
For the investor, the interest rate risk is the impact on his investment due to a
change in the interest rate. For the CFO, the interest rate risk is the impact on his cost
of financing due to a change in the interest rate. Obviously, liberalisation, which has
been predicated on interest rate rationalisation and decontrol, will magnify that risk.
Examine the sharp jump in volatility it has already unleashed: in the decade between 1980
and 1989, PLRs remained stuck at 14 per cent; in 1996-97, PLRs moved rapidly, changing
three times in a single year.
But deregulation has not just splayed jagged spikes all over the PLR graphs; it has
also increased the CFO's vulnerability to volatility. For, a larger proportion of lending
will now be at variable rates. Since most ECBs are pegged to the LIBOR, the rising share
of such borrowings has led to floating interest rates. Expect the domestic term-lending
institutions to include provisions for interest rate changes while extending long-term
loans. And, as the working capital paradigms change, CFOs will have to cope with rate
changes even within the short span of the working capital cycle.
No doubt a gamut of products, and free-floating rates, give the CFO tremendous
flexibility to create a financing mix that yields the lowest possible cost. But if that
low-cost mix does not provide for volatility, a sudden upward spike in interest rates will
throw financing cycles out of gear. Cautions Citibank's Anil Jaggia: "Corporates have
to design buffers to ensure that interest rate volatility does not translate into earnings
volatility. Otherwise price-earnings (P/E) ratios will drop, compounding financing
problems."
The Natural Hedges
VARIABLE RATE FUNDING. In a market economy, the
interest rate cycle is closely linked to the business cycle. An economy slipping into a
recession will, typically, witness a falling interest rate graph whereas an upturn rides
up that graph. CFOs can compress the downside of this cycle without necessarily
sacrificing the upside of lower interest rates through the careful calibration of the
quantum of floating rate funds in the financing mix.
Advises United Phosphorus' Desai: "In a situation of easing liquidity, like the
one that prevails today, it is best to lock on to the low rates through fixed rate loans
before the recovery gains momentum, and pushes up rates." Conversely, if the
liquidity spigot runs dry, as it did in 1995-96, floating rate financing is the optimal
strategy.
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