However, in the current scenario where the country is faced with a major problem of unsold surpluses rotting in the godowns of Food Corporation of India (FCI), a good monsoon could well mean bad times for both farmers and the economy.

Says Abhijit Sen, Chairman, Committee on Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), "Even if there's a mere one per cent increase in the foodgrain production, the corresponding fall in the prices will be more than one per cent."

It's difficult to dismiss his argument. A good monsoon, resulting in a bumper crop, can result in lower prices, offsetting the benefits of higher yield. This will only accentuate the adverse trend of less offtake by FCI, since its granaries are overflowing. The country already has around 60 million tonnes excess foodgrain stocked in FCI godown.

Most farmers will be left to the mercy of the middlemen, who, quick as they are in exploiting the situation, will force the farmers to go in for distress selling and thereby make a mockery of the government-set minimum support price (MSP). The current MSP for food has been fixed at Rs 610 per quintal by the government.

A bumper crop in the current situation will not only mean depressed prices for foodgrain, but also lesser offtake of foodgrains from the public distribution system (PDS) - the main buyer from FCI godowns. Storing of foodgrains in the FCI godown is also no solution. Stocking one tonne of foodgrain for a year in FCI godown costs the national exchequer Rs 2,200. In case the FCI has to store 50 million tonnes - given the fact that the current surplus is around 60 million, and that fresh stock of foodgrain will come from Punjab by September end - the government will need to spend a whooping Rs 11,000 crore per year on storage alone.

Increasing the quantum reserved for the people below the poverty line (BPL) may seem like an easy answer, but is not necessarily so. The finance ministry is not in a position to increase the already huge subsidy burden of Rs 13,670 crore that it spends on foodgrains, especially when the economy is in a downturn and tax collection has taken a nosedive. After all, foodgrains for BPL families are provided at 48 per cent of the economic cost.

So what is the way out of this impasse? "Changing the cropping pattern may be one of the answers," argues Brajesh Jha, agricultural scientist at the Institute of Economic Growth. Growing more oilseeds, pulses and other cash crop, which is in short supply in the country, could help farmers get a better price. "But it will not happen till the government continues with its policy of raising the MSP of rice and wheat by 10 per cent every year," adds Jha.

A massive export drive could well reduce the pressure on FCI's storage facilities. But that is something easier said than done. Indian wheat, and to some extent rice, is neither price competitive nor of international standards (even a developing country like Iraq has sent back our wheat twice). The government, however, has an ambitious target of exporting 30 lakh tonnes of rice and 50 lakh tonnes of wheat this year. "Selling wheat at $85 a tonne in the international market and pricing it at $35 a tonne in the domestic market is not only economically wrong, but is also incompatible with WTO guidelines. It also carries the threat of India being dragged to the Dispute Settlement Board," says Sen.

The only way out is to strengthen the food for work programme - whereby foodgrain is made available at half the current BPL price - to workers. Unfortunately, this hasn't happened either. Of the allocated 16 lakh tonnes of foodgrain, this fiscal offtake has only been 11 lakh tonnes. Well, a drought can definitely help matters.