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Industrialised nations' emissions of greenhouse gases edged up to their highest levels in more than a decade in 2004 despite efforts to fight global warming. The figures, based on submissions to the UN Climate Secretariat in Bonn, indicate many countries will have to do more to meet the goals for 2012 set by the UN's Kyoto Protocol. What are the implications for the world at large? Climate change experts are far-sighted. They are thinking 20, 30, 40 years into the future. So with the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012, there's a sense of urgency when it comes to reducing the emissions that are cited as causing climate change. Emissions from 40 industrial nations climbed 1.6 per cent overall to 17.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2004 from in 2003 even though oil prices were surging. Governments were doing little to plan for cuts in emissions beyond Kyoto. Most of the 2004 rise was caused by a 1.7 per cent gain in emissions in the US, the world's biggest source of greenhouse gases, to a record 7.07 billion tonnes. Emissions in the European Union and Canada also rose while Japan's dipped. Most industrialised nations except the US and Australia have ratified Kyoto, which obliges an overall cut in emissions of at least 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by 2008-12 with a shift to cleaner energies such as wind and solar power. The 2004 data, most of it previously published by governments but not yet verified by UN experts, indicate that emissions are creeping up after a fall since 1990 largely caused by the collapse of Soviet-era smokestack industries. Last October, the UN climate secretariat had said 2003 emissions were 5.9 per cent below 1990. The overall figures are almost certainly underestimates because Russia has not reported emissions since 1999. Since then the UN climate secretariat has simply rolled over the 1999 data, when Russia's emissions were 39 percent below 1990 levels. And the data do not include emissions in the Third World - not covered by Kyoto. Fast-growing China and India were the world's second and fifth biggest sources of greenhouse gases in 2000, according to UN data. It all boils down to gas emissions. Power plants, factories and personal vehicles emit a mixture of gases that trap heat in Earth's atmosphere, hence the term global warming. This gradual warming of Earth's atmosphere is not a good thing. Warming is bringing unpredictable changes. Melting glaciers and precipitation are causing some rivers to overflow, while evaporation is emptying others. Thermal expansion of the oceans, combined with melting ice on land, is also raising sea levels. Some crops grow faster while others see yields slashed by disease and drought. Strong hurricanes are becoming more frequent and destructive. Arctic sea ice is melting faster every year, and there are growing fears of a shutdown of the ocean currents that keep Europe warm for its latitude. As natural ecosystems - such as coral reefs - are disrupted, biodiversity is reduced. Most species cannot migrate fast enough to keep up, though others are already evolving in response to warming. In this century, human activity could trigger an irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic glaciers. This would condemn the world to a rise in sea level of six metres - enough to flood land occupied by billions of people. The global warming would be more pronounced if it were not for sulphur particles and other pollutants that shade us, and because forests and oceans absorb around half of the CO2 we produce. But the accumulation rate of atmospheric CO2 has increased since 2001, suggesting that nature's ability to absorb the gas could now be stretched to the limit. Recent research suggests that natural CO2 "sinks", like peat bogs and forests, are actually starting to release CO2. In order to prevent dangerous climatic changes, the first step taken was the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which finally came into force during 2005. It will bring modest emission reductions from industrialised countries. But many observers said deeper cuts are needed and developing nations, which have large and growing populations, will one day have to join in. Some, including the US Bush administration, say the scientific uncertainty over the pace of climate change is grounds for delaying action. The US and Australia have reneged on Kyoto. During 2005 these countries, and others, suggested "clean fuel" technologies as an alternative to emissions cuts. In any case, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the world needs to quickly improve the efficiency of its energy usage and develop renewable non-carbon fuels like: wind, solar, tidal, wave and perhaps nuclear power. It also means developing new methods of converting this clean energy into motive power, like hydrogen fuel cells for cars. Trading in Kyoto carbon permits may help. Other less conventional solutions include ideas to stave off warming by "mega-engineering" the planet with giant mirrors to deflect the Sun's rays, seeding the oceans with iron to generate algal blooms, or burying greenhouse gases below the sea. The bottom line is that we will need to cut CO2 emissions by 70 per cent to 80 per cent simply to stabilise atmospheric CO2 concentrations - and thus temperatures. The quicker we do that, the less unbearably hot our future world will be.
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