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Flying High

Asia, led by India, will fly high. The region will witness the second highest growth in international air traffic till 2009, says a report by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA). West Asia (which the report treats as distinct from the rest of Asia) is projected to grow the fastest. The report estimated a worldwide growth of around 5 per cent. In India, the number of international passengers is expected to grow 20 per cent.

Air traffic in Asia is on rise again. The region will witness the second highest growth in international air traffic till 2009, only to finish second after Middle East, according to the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA). The CAPA report says international air traffic in Asia Pacific will have an average annual growth rate of 6.2 per cent, while it is little higher for Middle East where the traffic will grow by 6.8 per cent.

Latent demand in India, China, Vietnam, Indonesia point to underlying strength. The Asian region is consolidating its position as one of the most dynamic regional travel markets in the world, driven by some of the highest rates of economic growth. The results show sustained demand across the region even as rising fuel bills increased real costs for travellers. The first half of 2006 has been a real test for the travel market, and the continuing growth shows the region come through with flying colours.

The report projected a world-over growth of around 5 per cent in this regard. Next to Middle East and Asia Pacific is Africa, which is expected to register a high growth rate of 5.8 per cent. The growth will mostly be concentrated in the Asia and Middle East region as the markets in Europe, North America and Latin America are already touching a reaching saturation point. Currently, only three regions - Middle East, South and Central Asia - are registering a double-digit growth. Most of the regions had witnessed a robust market growth in 2004, led by Middle East and Asia Pacific with 24.8 per cent and 20.5 per cent growth respectively.

Traffic in the Asia Pacific region is expected to register a 6.4 per cent annual traffic growth for the next 20 years, according to the Boeing market projections. India was a prime mover during the period (with a marked increase in domestic travel), while other growth players China, Vietnam and Indonesia provided underlying confidence to the market, although Thailand and Malaysia experienced some turbulence. In India, the number of international passengers grew from 1.91 million in 2004 to 2.25 million in 2005, registering a 17.6 per cent growth. This year the international passenger traffic in the country is expected to grow by over 20 per cent.

Aviation industry watchers believe the market fundamentals are in good shape. The intense competition ushered in by new entrants - and the strategic response by existing players - will drive further market growth. With high disposable incomes riding on a growing economy, analysts say that Indian aviation is set to ride a growth trajectory. The domestic travel market is projected to reach 50-60 million by 2010, and international passengers will number 18-20 million. The LCC (low cost carrier) strategy is to persuade many rail passengers to try air travel.

Economic reforms, annual growth rates of 7-plus per cent and unprecedented growth in the software and back-office service sectors have created a new, younger and wealthier middle class which will eventually be larger than the entire population of the US.

The growth in commercial air services continues to outstrip the available capacity at more and more airports in the Asia Pacific region. Because of the interconnected operations of the international air transport system, capacity constraints at some airports impact on other airports. Environmental, economic, political and physical constraints on airport capacity have, in some instances, exacerbated this problem. Governments, airlines and airports have each developed measures to overcome or ameliorate situations of insufficient airport capacity. However, governments are increasingly likely to face situations where the demand by airlines to initiate or increase commercial operations cannot be met because of a lack of airport capacity.

On paper, India has some very promising developments in airport infrastructure with Bangalore and Hyderabad in line for new international airports. As many as 30 smaller airports will be re-positioned as international airports (e.g. Nagpur, Gaya) eventually creating more exit and entry points for travellers depending on the ability to drive through these changes which the jury is still out on.

 

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