By R.A. Mashelkar

The evolution of new sciences will occur at a rapid pace in the New Millennium. This will be because of the possibilities that global knowledge networking opens up, the convergence of diverse disciplines, and the rapid sophistication in experimental investigation techniques. With the rate of knowledge-creation doubling every 5 years, it is becoming difficult to predict the future. Thus, a symposium on the technology of the 20th Century held in 1895, based on the level of knowledge that existed at the time, might not have mentioned the aeroplane, radio, antibiotics, nuclear energy, electronics, computers, or space-exploration. At the dawn of a new century, what are the pieces that will be missing when we make predictions about science and technology over the next 100 years?

In this millennium, our policy on science and technology will have to be directed along 4 lines. The first priority will be to use the powers of science and technology to meet basic human needs. These would relate to food, health, water, energy, employment, and shelter. The second would be to use science and technology to create wealth, both by enterprises and by individual Indian entrepreneurs. The third would be to embark on a major thrust in emerging knowledge-based areas such as informatics, bio-technology, new and renewable energy sources, new materials, and environment-related programmes. In all these areas, India can make a major headway and surge ahead of the rest of the world. The fourth relates to strategic areas, where technologies will not be available to us. This will include nuclear energy, defence research, and space science and technology. Fortunately, we have built self-reliance and enormous capabilities over the past few decades in these areas, and that will serve us as an effective launch-pad.

Sir Francis Bacon once said: ''It would be an unsound fancy to expect that things which have never been done can be done except by methods which have never been tried.'' We, therefore, require a new approach to practically anything we do. Let us a take a typical example: creating food security for the 21st Century. We succeeded in creating the first Green Revolution, but now we need an Evergreen Revolution. We face the daunting task of feeding almost 1.50 billion people with about 350 million tonnes of foodgrains by 2040. This increased production has to be attained with minimal ecological damage, falling per capita arable land, less water for irrigation, and a lower quantum of fossil-fuel-based energy sources. This needs an innovative blending of technology and experience.

On the one hand, we will need to deploy cutting-edge advances in modern biotechnology, space technology, infotech, and renewable energy technology. On the other hand, we will need to take cognisance of the best in India's traditional agricultural wisdom and prudence. Only through the blending of the Gene Revolution with our experience in the Green Revolution can we reach our goal of an Evergreen Revolution. The advantage of the Gene Revolution is that it is relatively scale-neutral and, therefore, in principle, should benefit big and small farmers alike.

In the characteristically-integrative Indian tradition, equity, environment, ecology, and economics will have to be viewed, not in isolation, but in tandem. The environment will have to be viewed as a unique national asset in this millennium. The study of the industry-environment interaction, the relationship between land use and soil processes, and mechanisms of global environment change will require innovative tools of science and technology.

The 21st Century will see a change in our systems of valuation as well as our value systems. For instance, we are used to conventional indicators of economic growth: gross national product and gross domestic product. However, now new indicators of economic growth, such as gross natural product or even gross ecological product will emerge. Such indicators will not only themselves measure growth, but be indicative of ecologically sound structural changes in the economy. Acceptance of such measures will drive technological innovations. Many societies in the developing world have nurtured and refined systems of indigenous knowledge in such diverse domains as geology, ecology, and botany. We are now seeing the emergence of terms such as parallel, indigenous, and civilisational knowledge systems. Such knowledge systems are expressions of alternative approaches to the acquisition and production of knowledge.

In the course of this millennium, we will realise that the growing dominance of a single view of the natural world as expounded by modern science has undermined these knowledge systems. Such systems will be protected and enhanced through national policies and international legislation. We will expect lot of technology blending: for example, the emergence of the herbal revolution, where new drugs are being developed based on traditional systems of medicine and new knowledge. these will dominate the next millennium.

The march of new technology will change the way we teach and learn, both in space and time. India must proactively look at the sweeping changes on the horizon, and prepare for it. Knowledge-centred societies are emerging. The infotech-telecom convergence makes knowledge accessible and cost-effective.

Teaching hitherto meant speaking, and learning meant listening. It was a one-way linear process, sometimes with no opportunity for an interaction. The fact that education is being brought to our home will mean that one will be in a position to undertake learning at one's own pace. Personal digital libraries will be created to provide a mechanism for managing one's accumulated knowledge-resource. Software technologies will enable development of educational material quickly and easily to support its modification and maintenance. The process of continuous learning will also become easy.

Evaluation systems will also change. The new system of evaluation will be continuous, and will be centered around the unique capabilities of the individual. What this means is that, theoretically, there can be a day-to-day and a one-to-one evaluation of a person's capacity. It is, thus, possible that a situation may arise where a person may acquire an intellectual maturity much greater than his physical age. This would mean that the mental age required to perform a job would be reached much earlier. Such events are going to cause major turmoils and discontinuities in the process of the education system and our way of thinking in this millennium.

R.A.Mashelkar is the Director-General of the  Council for Scientific & Industrial Research

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