BUDGET 1999

RAHUL BAJAJ: "The economy will get a boost when there's political stability."
K M BIRLA: "Sops to housing could spur other sectors like steel and cement."
DEEPAK PAREKH: "The budget clarifies, consolidates, and cleans up a number of issues."
RAJAN NANDA: "Changes in taxation will end up disturbing the consumer."
The Outcome: The GDP grew 6.1 per cent in 1999-2000

BUDGET 2000

RAHUL BAJAJ: "The budget proposals won't help achieve 7.1 per cent growth rate."
K.M. BIRLA: "The budget won't retard economic recovery and globalisation."
DEEPAK PAREKH: "The budget has been disappointing. It won't achieve much."
RAJAN NANDA: "The Budget should have a catalytic effect on reforms and growth."
The Outcome: The GDP grew 4 per cent in 2000-01

BUDGET 2001

RAHUL BAJAJ: "The feel-good factor is back and this will kick-start the economy."
K.M. BIRLA: "The budget is a positive one, focusing on the growth platform."
DEEPAK PAREKH: "It is much better than what most expected."
RAJAN NANDA: "The budget will spur growth and revenue collection."
The Outcome: The GDP grew 5.4 per cent in 2001-02

BUDGET 2002

RAHUL BAJAJ: "From a macro standpoint, the budget is very positive and growth-oriented."
K.M. BIRLA: "I believe Mr Sinha has done the best he could under these circumstances."
DEEPAK PAREKH: "It has saddled the individual tax-payer with a greater burden."
RAJAN NANDA: "It has come as a big disappointment."
The Outcome: The GDP grew an estimated 4.4 per cent in 2002-03

KEY NUMBERS
From Budget '03

60,000 That's how many crores of rupees Budget '03 will invest in roads and ports

74 The new limit on foreign direct investment in private banks

25 The new peak duty for Customs. Lowered from 30 per cent

8 The new rate of service tax; increased from 5 per cent

5.6 The estimated fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP

1 The number of forms now needed to file tax returns

1 The percentage point cut in interest rates on small savings

OFFBEAT NUMBERS
From Budget '03

SPEECH MAKER (2003): Jaswant Singh
SPEECH MAKER (2002): Yashwant Sinha

WHEN EXACTLY (2003): 1100 Hrs, 28.2.03
WHEN EXACTLY (2002): 1102 Hrs, 28.2.02

SPEECH DURATION (2003): 135 minutes
SPEECH DURATION (2002): 106 minutes

NUMBER OF PAGES (2003): 35
NUMBER OF PAGES (2002): 36

Predictably, Unhappy
The opposition parties think the FM missed his big chance.

Original reformer: Manmohan Singh

Yet another attack on people's livelihood...pro-imperialist agenda," screamed a press release from the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in reaction to Jaswant Singh's first budget. The party's other complaints: the increase in FDI limit in private banks would lead to "de-Indianisation" of the sector; there is nothing in the budget for the farmers; the extra investment of Rs 507 crore on Antyodaya would hardly make a dent on poverty; and the 50 paise cess on diesel will have a cascading effect on prices. "It's a hotchpotch budget," said party member Sitaram Yechuri. "It will only benefit the upper middle class and big corporate houses," added his colleague and Lok Sabha leader Somnath Chatterjee.

The Congress described the budget as being "full of token measures to deal with what are serious problems". Former finance minister and top party leader Manmohan Singh blasted the fm for increasing the price of urea at a time when farmers were facing "acute distress". It also claimed that Jaswant Singh had undone what his predecessor Yashwant Sinha had done by taxing dividends in the hands of shareholders. In fact, the Congress (I) statement added, "the tax system has actually been made more complex." Said Jaipal Reddy, a Congress spokesperson: "It is not a growth-oriented budget because growth comes from investment of savings, and savings are being discouraged by reduction in interest rates."

A case of sour grapes? It seemed so, given that industry was pretty upbeat about the budget. Even Dalal Street, despite a volatile day, ended the Friday evening with a six-point gain in the Sensex.

-Vandana Gombar

What About The FIIs?
The budget had little for the foreign institutional investors.

The finance minister left FIIs on tenterhooks, with promises of increases in sectoral limits, easier registration, and generally an easier time investing in the Indian stock market. So, will the FIIs take Jaswant Singh seriously and loosen their purse-strings? Unlikely. For one, unlike the mid-90s, net FII inflows have been slowing. For example, less than Rs 1,300 crore of net FII money came into the stock market between January and February this year, compared to Rs 2,389 crore in the same period last year. Says Ruchir Sharma, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley (India): "The budget is good at the micro level, but at the macro level there is no grand design. I don't see major changes either way (in inflows or outflows)."

But nobody denies that the budget is laying the ground for more FII investment. DSP Merrill Lynch's Alok Vajpeyi points to the proposed investment in roads and ports as something that will have a positive impact on perception. U.R. Bhat, Director, J.P. Morgan, believes that the change from "a band-aid approach to reforms to some sort of minor surgery" will boost FII confidence.

There are others who feel that the introduction of vat, rationalisation of interest rates, and fiscal consolidation at the Centre and State are all factors that should make foreign institutional investors happy. Already in 2003, according to US-based emerging market funds research firm Emergingportfolio.com, several emerging markets funds are bullish on India. But for more money to flow in, the economy has to rev up and a wider range of industries and companies must shore up its earnings. At the least, they must perform better than comparable markets. Therefore, while the FIIs won't go away, Dalal Street won't have them falling over each to invest either.

-Roshni Jayakar