|
EVA: THE
EVALUATION
India's Best
Wealth
Creators
They took your money. As equity. Or as
debt. But how many of them used it to create wealth for you? And which
ones destroyed your wealth? The first-ever BT - Stern Stewart & Co.
listing ranks companies on their ability to create wealth as indicated by
two unique metrics: Economic Value Added and Market Value Added. Find out
who did what with your money.
Shareholder Value is the
quintessential measure of corporate performance. It is an accurate
reflection of the quantum of incremental value a company generates for its
shareholders, after accounting for its cost of operations, which includes
the cost of capital. But it isn't easy to measure. Balance-sheet-based
measures are veiled in accounting anomalies that, often, measure notional
profits, not real ones. And market-driven measures, like market
capitalisation, are prone to the volatility of the bourses.
The solution, thus, is a mix-and-match
measure-or a family of measures-that can factor in a market's assessment
of a company's value and, at the same time, use real measures of its
financial performance that it extracts from its financial statements. The
ideal family of measures comprises the value-added twins: Market Value
Added (MVA) and Economic Value Added (EVA). The first is the perfect
measure of a company's ability to create wealth. But it can be calculated
only at the level of the entire company, and is as volatile as any market
index.
The Top
Ten by MVA |
1 HLL
2 ITC
3 Wipro
4 Infosys
5 NIIT
6 Glaxo
7 Nestle
8 Castrol
9 Ranbaxy
10 Satyam
Computers |
45,345
21,273
17,196
9,543
7,616
5,116
4,837
4,720
4,707
3,427 |
The second is the most accurate measure of
the economic performance of a company. It can be calculated at the level
of divisions and product-lines, and is not a function of the market price
of a company's scrip. It is also the one measure that best explains
changes in the MVA of a company. Explains V. Raghunathan, 45, Professor,
Indian Institute Of Management, Ahmedabad: ''EVA is one measure that can
realistically assess the economic contribution of a company, shorn of
accounting anomalies. It is a relevant management tool since it unifies
the concepts of Net Present Value (NPV), market price, and book value.''
What exactly are these silver bullets of
incremental shareholder value? The EVA of a company is the excess of its
return on capital over its cost of capital. And the MVA is the difference
between a company's total market value-the market capitalised value of
equity, including preference shares, and debt-and its capital employed. In
a mature market, the MVA of a company is equal to the NPV of all future
EVAs. In the context of countries like India, though, where the markets
are anything but mature, the MVA is a highly volatile figure that, often,
does not have any mathematical linkage with the EVA or a logical one with
the fundamentals of the company.
This will, indubitably, change, but at this
point of time, EVA is a far more accurate measure of the ability of a
company to add shareholder value than MVA. Thus, when BT commissioned
Stern Stewart & Co.-the financial consulting hot-shop that created the
concepts of EVA and MVA-to assess the value-addition capabilities of
companies that constituted the BT-500 value-listing, the objective of the
exercise was to look beyond the façade of traditional measures like
market capitalisation, Earnings Per Share (EPS), and the Price-to-Earnings
ratio (p-e) so as to investigate whether a company's management was really
adding value to its shareholders.
Is yours? Is that high p-e multiple
justified? Do your company's EPS come out of real earnings or notional
profits? The answers to questions such as this can be found in the
first-ever study of its kind: the BT - Stern Stewart EVA/MVA rankings. BT
presents insights on shareholder value-addition from India's wealth club:
Towards Shareholder
Wealth
If EVA is the one true measure of shareholder
value, how did Indian companies perform? Not too well although that isn't
evident from other numerical indicators of the 500 companies that
constitute the BT-500 value listing. The total sales of the sample
increased by 8.85 per cent; total market value by 28.54 per cent; average
market capitalisation by 9.61 per cent; and the aggregate MVA, thanks to a
bull-market, by 76.94 per cent. But the aggregate EVA decreased by 14.15
per cent, from -Rs 30,962.67 crore in 1997-98 to -Rs 35,342.82 crore in
1998-99.
Thus, a mere 71 companies in the BT 500
listing boasted a positive EVA in 1998-99. The range? Hindustan Lever
Ltd's (hll) Rs 290.64 crore to Bayer Diagnostics' Rs 0.07 crore. And 52 of
the 71 had EVAs less than Rs 10 crore. By themselves, these numbers are
intriguing for they indicate that even after capitalising expenditure
targeting future, and not current, returns, just about 1 out of every 7
Indian companies managed to generate returns in excess of their cost of
capital; the other 6, in effect, eroded shareholder value. But the numbers
acquire even more significance when seen from the perspective of an MVA-analysis
of the same companies.
Almost 1 in 2 companies managed to generate
incremental MVA between 1997-98 and 1998-99. But Rs 33,947 crore out of
the aggregate of Rs 70,007 crore generated as incremental MVA by the 500
companies in the sample came from an increase in total capital employed.
Take that away, and the aggregate incremental MVA created by the sample
comes down to Rs 36,060 crore. Even more significantly, a substantial
chunk of this incremental MVA came from the sudden boom in the scrips of
infotech, pharma, and fmcg companies which, while indicative of the
growth-potential of these sectors, did not-and still do not-magnify the
abilities of these companies to add shareholder value.
Thus, Britannia Industries, whose average
market capitalisation increased from Rs 637.97 crore in 1997-98 to Rs
1,448.86 crore in 1998-99, and whose MVA increased from Rs 697.29 crore to
Rs 2,129.40 crore in the same period, actually saw its EVA worsen from -Rs
9.19 crore in 1997-98 to -Rs 11.47 crore in 1998-99. This does not imply
that assessments of its ability to add value in the long term, measured by
its MVA, are totally wrong. Nor does it imply that they are totally right.
The first EVA variable: ROCE
The EVA of a company is just a measure of the
incremental return its investment earns over the market rate of return.
Companies fund their investments from equity, debt, or retained earnings.
The returns equity investors expect from a company are, at the very least,
equal to what they will achieve by investing in the market-index although
the actual figure depends on the risk-profile of the company. The returns
institutional and private lenders expect from a company are, again, at the
very least, equal to the prime lending rate. Even retained earnings,
contrary to what most managers believe, are not totally free. The company
can, after all, expect some returns from its retained earnings if it
invests them in either the equity- or debt-markets.
This obsession for returns that is inherent
in the EVA methodology makes Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) the perfect
value-vane for a company's wealth-creation initiatives. Thus, the 10
companies in the BT-500 that managed to improve their ROCE the most saw
their EVAs move from below zero to positive figures. Explains Sudhir
Tilloo, 52, Managing Director, DGP Windsor: ''EVA will transform people
from mere accountants into well-rounded managers. But the first step in
the EVA process revolves around increasing the ROCE of the company.''
In keeping with this belief, DGP Windsor has
targeted a ROCE of 20 per cent. That achieved, it proposes to adopt EVA.
The company that managed to register the maximum increase in its ROCE, BFL
Software-from -36.15 per cent in 1997-98 to 43.34 per cent in 1998-99-saw
its EVA go up from -Rs 9.98 crore in 1997-98 to Rs 9.66 crore in 1998-99.
Expectedly, companies whose roce dropped saw their EVAs fall too: the EVA
of Onward Technologies, whose ROCE fell from 11.73 per cent in 1997-98 to
-17.68 per cent in 1998-99, decreased from -Rs 3.66 crore to -Rs 8.34
crore in the same period.
High market valuations are no insurance
against poor performance. Thus, a minor ROCE HICCUP-a decline from 32.48
per cent in 1997-98 to 22.30 per cent in 1998-99-for Infosys (No. 4 in the
list in terms of MVA) resulted in a substantial swing in its EVA: Rs 13.39
crore in 1997-98 to -Rs 19.53 crore in 1998-99. Explains Vinayak
Chatterjee, 40, Chairman, Feedback Ventures: ''EVA has to be seen in the
context of Economic Value Subtraction. A small fall in a company's ROCE
can result in a significant fall in its EVA. Thus, this is one measure
that ensures that companies never lose their focus on shareholder
returns.''
If they do, though, there's a price to be
paid: for a company-even one with a high market valuation to begin
with-that registers negative EVAs year after year will, eventually, become
the market's pariah. In effect, the mathematical validity of the link
between EVA and MVA-the MVA of a company is the NPV of all its future EVAs-will
rule supreme in the long-term: consistent negative EVAs will result in a
low or negative MVA.
The second EVA variable: COC
One look at the BT - Stern Stewart value
listings is all it takes to show that ROCE isn't the only variable that
has an impact on a company's EVA. Several companies that had high ROCEs
reported negative EVAs: itc, for instance, despite posting an
above-average ROCE of 19.65 per cent, had an EVA of -Rs 90.25 crore. The
reason: EVA is a measure of incremental return, or the ability of a
company to generate returns in excess of its Cost Of Capital (COC). Thus,
if a company's cost of capital is higher than its ROCE, it is certain to
have a negative EVA.
For instance, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL),
which had net operating profits of Rs 2,185.48 crore in 1998-99, reported
a negative EVA of -Rs 2,200.48 crore in the same year, and a fall of Rs
3,706.23 crore in its MVA between 1997-98 and 1998-99. The cause wasn't a
low ROCE-the company had a ROCE of 9.53 per cent in 1998-99-but a high
cost of capital: 19.13 per cent. Put simply, for every rupee of capital it
used-the total capital employed by the company rose from Rs 19,175 crore
in 1997-98 to Rs 22,929.06 crore in 1998-99-RIL generated 9.50 paise of
operating profits.
Only, it cost the company 19.13 paisa to
access and use the 1 rupee. Bottomline: for every rupee of capital used,
RIL managed to destroy shareholder value to the extent of 9.60 paise. One
reason for this could be capital expenditure that is yet to start
producing returns. And the market's expectation that such investments
will, eventually, generate returns explains RIL's MVA of Rs 2,138.39.
Caveat: the market is quick to penalise capital investments it thinks
wasteful.
A case in point is Tata Steel. The company's
MVA fell from Rs 595.65 crore in 1997-98 to -Rs 890.77 crore in 1998-99.
What went wrong? Its Net Operating Profits declined from Rs 495.82 crore
in 1997-98 to Rs 433.43 crore in 1998-99; and its ROCE from 5.01 per cent
to 4.12 per cent in the same period. However, these were marginal changes.
What really hurt the company was its high cost of capital: 18.86 per cent
in 1998-99 and 18.75 per cent the previous year. Magnified by a 6 per cent
growth in capital-from Rs 9,895.69 crore to Rs 10,508.21 crore in the same
period-this proved to be the main factor behind the value-erosion the
company experienced.
Explains Ridham Desai, 31, Vice-President and
India Strategist, JP Morgan Stanley: ''Long business cycles and massive
capital investment mean that companies cannot continually invest money in
commodity businesses. So, a downcycle can prevent them from adding
economic value.'' The conclusion: sales revenue which cascades down as the
Net Operating Profit and ROCE, and the cost of capital are the 2 variables
on which an EVA-conscious company needs to focus.
More |