It's
a statement associated more with the go-go nineties than the go-slow
2000s. So, when Vishnu Dusad, the 46-year-old CEO of Nucleus Software
says, "Our growth rates will be higher than the industry's",
investors who participated in last year's tech tragedy on the bourses
could be forgiven for not believing him. Only, Dusad speaks the
truth. Nucleus closed its books for 2001-02 with revenues of around
Rs 65 crore, 86 per cent higher than 2000-01's Rs 35 crore.
The big five it companies-TCS (it actually
doesn't belong in this section yet; it's not listed), Wipro, Infosys,
HCL Technologies, and Satyam Computer-accounted for 35 per cent
of India's total software exports of Rs 36,000 crore in 2001-02,
but if it is a growth-play you seek, mid-cap software companies
(with a market capitalisation between Rs 150 crore and Rs 1,500
crore), and a sprinkling of small-cap ones, are it.
It may be hard to find companies such as Nucleus,
but it is in the realm of the achievable.
This select club of mid-caps and small-caps
has bucked the slowdown by catering to a niche, acquiring specialised
domain expertise, forging alliances or building relationships with
one client. "Customer access is their biggest strength,"
explains Sunil Mehta, Vice President (Research), Nasscom. "They
offer niche services that aren't in the radar of the Big Five."
With due consideration to the informed opinion of fund managers
and analysts, here is our own pick of six such companies.
The Right Shape
Trading volumes seem to suggest this company
is hotter than hot-on April 15, 18 lakh Geometric Software shares
traded hands on NSE; some 7 lakh on BSE-but there is more to Geometric
Software, a company promoted by Manu Parpia, the former head of
Godrej's it business, than liquidity.
First off, the company's strange monicker comes
from its ability to crunch complex algorithms in solid geometry,
a skill much in demand among the makers of CAD/M/E (Computer Aided
Design, Manufacturing, and Engineering) software. Estimates put
the size of the market Geometric addresses at $6.7 billion (Rs 32,160
crore) in 2001. And in late 2001, Geometric struck two deals that
should benefit it in the long term.
The first, a strategic alliance with Wipro,
will see Geometric providing solutions to Wipro's customers in the
manufacturing space. The second is a 70:30 joint venture with Dassault
Systems, the largest players in the emerging Product Lifecycle Management
domain, the spiritual successor to ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning).
Geometric has had its share of tumbles: in 2001, its US operations
didn't do very well, perhaps a fallout of the departure of some
key execs. "The company's size (it has just 350 employees)
and ability to scale up are concerns," says M.G. Shyam, a senior
analyst with HDFC Securities, "but we are attracted by its
high technology orientation." So are we, which is why the company
finds a mention here.
It's the geography
Do not be deluded by references to Business
Process Outsourcing-Indian it's mantra of the month-while looking
at the business model of Hyderabad-based Infotech Enterprises.
Close to 50 per cent of the company's revenues
of Rs 70.27 crore in the first nine months of 2001-02, came from
GIS (Geographical Information System, and it is a $8.5-billion or
Rs 40,800- crore market) conversion.
GIS is the back-breaking business of combining
map-making, demographic distributions, and other relevant business
variables to come up with, what else, map-like thingamajigs that
companies can use to increase efficiencies in everything from logistics
to distribution to customer management.
Then, there's Infotech's engineering services
business that bagged a plum assignment from Pratt & Whitney-as
a result of which its revenues went up from Rs 7.18 crore in the
first six months of 2001-02 to Rs 7.28 crore in the third quarter
of the year.
"Its biggest accomplishment has been the
Pratt & Whitney deal," says Saurabh Singhi, a software
analyst with Alchemy Stock Brokers. "And it looks well-positioned
to bag other such engagements."
There's competition aplenty in both domains,
but if Infotech Enterprises can grow at over 50 per cent-estimates
suggest it grew by 60 per cent in 2001-02-and keep the revenue contributions
of its three businesses, GIS, engineering services, and software
services (50 per cent, 25 per cent, and 25 per cent respectively)
constant, it should help. That's as de-risked a business model as
can be.
On Wings of Desire
Why Kale Consultants remained focussed on the
domestic market for the first 10 years since it began operations
in 1986, while other software companies were reaping greenbacks,
will remain a mystery. But its global gambit, however late, seems
to have paid off.
Last year, its airline services division-it
accounts for 60 per cent of revenues, and competes in a market valued
at $10 billion (Rs 48,000 crore)-grew 166 per cent. Today, Kale
claims it has what it takes to be a wing-to-wing solutions provider
to airlines, and has a client list of 35. "We have an edge
in this domain because our products are contemporary," says
Vipul Jain, managing Director, Kale Consultants.
It isn't just products that make Kale hot,
the company has entered the BPO segment too, with back-office services
for airlines (it already boasts multi-year contracts from Qatar
Airways and Air Luxor).
"The pure-play product strategy generally
brings about instability in revenue streams," says Pratish
Krishnan, an IT analyst with Cholamandalam Securities. "The
entry into the BPO segment will stabilise Kale's revenues."
That it should, and despite 9-11 the airlines business won't go
belly up anytime soon.
BPO to the rescue
A company whose topline grew by a mere 14.6
per cent shouldn't by rights be on this page. If Mphasis BFL does,
blame it on the company's BPO arm Msource. From Rs 5.2 crore in
2000-01, Msource's revenues rose some 350 per cent to Rs 23.39 crore
in 2001-02. Mphasis BFL's client list-Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase,
ING, BNP Paribas, AIG, Charles Schwab, P&G, J&J, and SIA-suggests
that the company could be well-placed to benefit from any upturn
in it-spending. However, it is Msource that gives the company an
edge, reducing the risk in its core business through a play in it-enabled
services. Predictably, of the 600 people hired by Mphasis in 2001-02,
over 500 were for Msource.
By March 2003, Msource, which employs 700 people
now, hopes to employ 1,500-2,000 people and generate revenues of
Rs 70 crore. Competition is intense in the call centre business,
but Msource has already managed to break even. Any increase in business,
and a consequent increase in utilisation levels, could translate
into super-normal profits for the company.
A classic product play
Product hothouse, I-flex has hogged much of
the limelight in the banking space, but its genetic isomer Nucleus-I-flex
started life as CITL, a Citibank company, and business from the
bank accounts for (and has accounted for, in the past) the bulk
of Nucleus' business-isn't exactly a pushover.
With 350 installations worldwide, and a client
list that includes Citibank, Amex, GMAC (General Motors' financial
services subsidiary), and Shinsei Bank, Nucleus is one of the few
Indian companies with a significant presence in products (25 per
cent of revenues).
"It has developed domain expertise while
working on projects and converted this into products," says
a Mumbai-based investment analyst. ''Our strong domain knowledge
and understanding of the banking vertical has helped us create credible
products,'' says Dusad. Net-net: the banking and financial services
vertical in the software industry may be becoming crowded, but Nucleus
does seem to have found a place for itself.
Fly-by-wire
What Nucleus did in banking, Subex Systems
wants to do in the telecommunications domain. The company built
expertise working on onsite projects for the likes of AT&T and
Lucent. Now, it is converting that expertise into products. "Our
new strategy is built around products for telecom applications,"
says Subhash Menon, MD, Subex. "And within that space we are
focussing on an area critical to operators, revenue maximisation."
The shift in focus helped: in 2001-02, telecom
equipment makers bore the brunt of the slowdown in the global economy,
but operators remained largely immune. "The product strategy
will bring some stability to Subex's revenue stream," explains
Sohini Andani, an analyst with LKP Securities. With India's telecom
sector set to boom, and clients like Bharti, Birla-AT&T-Tata,
and BPL Mobile (not to mention Sprint and several others without
India), Subex may just be at the brink of something big.
There may be more great mid-caps out there,
some in software, and others, in other domains. The trick is to
find them. Start hunting.
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