Prithipal SIngh: Cellular king manque

There were no cakes cut and confetti showered when BSNL's cellular service, CellOne (Excel for prepaid), turned one past October. Why? Severe teething trouble. Its monthly subscriptions have hit the skids from about six lakh as recently as April-May to three lakh in October this year. No, it's not because people are turning away from BSNL, rather the largest telecom operator is having to turn customers away. The peculiar problem has arisen due to the bureaucracy that the public-sector TELCO must deal with. With its cellular capacity nearing full, it had tendered three months ago for 2.5 million additional lines. But that process is not only lost in a bureaucratic maze, but has been buffeted by charges of corruption and ensuing investigations. As a result, except in a handful of states such as Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, and Karnataka, it does not have the capacity to service new subscribers. Worse, its existing capacity of five million lines could be full up in the next couple of months. Meanwhile, BSNL's head honcho, Prithipal Singh, who has asked advertising of CellOne to be cut back, is hoping that the great Indian bureaucracy will give the birthday boy his gift-even if a few months late.

-Vandana Gombar

Boom Checks In
A surge in inbound visitors has hoteliers cheering.

After two consecutive bad years, the hospitality industry finally has a smile on its face. Before the year is out, an expected 2.8 million tourists would have stopped by India. That's a 15 per cent jump compared to last year's 2.38 million visitors, and Rs 17,500 crore in foreign exchange earnings. Cashing in on the boom are India's five-star hotels, where occupancy was in excess of 65 per cent by the end of October, versus an average of 55 per cent last year. Hoteliers such as Lalit Suri of Delhi's Intercontinental Hotel expect occupancy rates to touch a new high of 75 per cent by year end, given that the tourist season has just started. "The general sentiment in the industry is that the country has finally begun to realise its tourism potential," says Suri. He and some others, however, point out that the boom is driven not so much by the casual tourist as the business visitor. Given the economy's rosy growth projections, the industry is putting its money where its mouth is. An estimated 2,000 rooms are to be added in 2004, with Suri himself planning on 600 rooms or more (via acquisitions) in the next six months. It looks like a classic trap. The industry fell into one such in 1997, when fresh capacity was created in anticipation of a boom. But right now the industry is in no mood to let anything spoil the party.

-T.R. Vivek

THE BT 50 INDEX
There's sign of trouble in the air: an impending correction.

We'd like to get nice and graphic about this one. Just take a look at the movement of the BT50 worm over the past few weeks. Do you see what we do? A gradual reduction in its upward slope, sort of as if the worm were losing momentum. Well, that's exactly what's happening in the stockmarket, and no amount of FII money (some Rs 5,000 crore over the past month), can change that. Being a free float index is a bit like being a water witch. Based on the direction of the worm, we sense a correction coming, and a big one at that. The fundamentals of the economy are strong, and corporates continue to enjoy higher profits than ever before, but the market, as most people operating in it know, moves to its own music. And this time, the tempo is flagging.

-Narendra Nathan

Game For The Olympics?
One way for India to book a ticket to the ''first world'' is to host the 2010 Commonwealth Games.

These are indeed feel-good times, and any attempt to even vaguely hint otherwise can easily be construed by those revelling in buoyant GDP projections and heady Sensex targets as not just ignorance but subversion. So in keeping with that jaunty mood, let's rewind to one of last fortnight's more significant events: No, it's got nothing to do with the punter predicting 10,000 for the Sensex or allusions by one minister that India has just about transformed from ugly duckling into a ''first-world'' swan. Perhaps he's jumped the gun by a few decades, but what could result in a giant step towards that exclusive club of developed countries is India's winning bid for the 2010 Commonwealth Games... Did I hear someone scoff: ''What's the big deal?''

Big deal it probably isn't, but beating Canada in the race to host the games for 72 Commonwealth countries, being only the second Asian country (after Malaysia), and just the third developing economy, to do so is something to be proud of. New Delhi will spend $553 million (Rs 2,544 crore) on the games, for which most of the city's sporting infrastructure will be upgraded, and two new venues constructed.

The winning bid for the 2010 Commonwealth Games in itself means little. But if New Delhi can do a good job of hosting them, it can then start planning for the biggest prize of them all-the Olympic Games-and in the bargain grab its one-way ticket to the first world. Pipedream? Hardly. China will be hosting the 2008 Olympic Games (in Beijing), so you know what the next sentence is going to be: If China can do it, why can't we! The Commonwealth Games assume significance because they could be a good dress rehearsal for the Olympics. That's exactly how it's worked for England, which hosted the 2002 Commonwealth Games in Manchester, and equipped the English with the confidence and knowhow to bid for the 2012 Olympic Games.

To be sure, hosting the Olympics isn't just a matter of pride. The most compelling reason to do so is economics: Tourism gets a boost (Australian tourism got a 2 billion pound fillip courtesy the 2000 Olympics), thousands of jobs are created (London expects to create 9,000 extra jobs), and every infrastructure-related industry stands to gain (like Indian steel riding on Beijing's infrastructure build-up for the 2008 Games!). Here's what the 2000 Games are estimated to have done for the Australian economy: The Games will add $6.5 billion (Rs 21,313 crore) to Australia's GDP over 12 years starting from 1994-95, and 1.5 million additional tourists between 1998 and 2004. Between 1994 and 2006, construction projects worth $3.3 billion (Rs 10,820 crore) will be executed, and an additional 7,500 jobs created. 2020 Olympic Games in India? Why not!

-Brian Carvalho

BT-CIRRUS
A Question of Life
The state-owned LIC still hogs the consumer bandwidth.

You can crib about LIC's bureaucratic ways, but you can't thank enough the state-owned life insurer for helping with marketing of insurance policies. According to a BT-Cirrus analysis of the industry's media impact, LIC towers over its private sector competitors in terms of both visibility and image. But the private players needn't hang their heads in disappointment. When it comes to the quality of exposure, ICICI Prudential tops even LIC. A sign of things to come, did you say?

1. Visibility scores and image scores measure all news items. Visibility scores are a factor of the size of the article multiplied by the readership of the given newspaper or magazine where the article has appeared.

2. Image scores are the tonality of a given news item. The visibility scores are multiplied by one, two or minus one depending on whether the articles are neutral, positive and negative.

3. Quality of Exposure (QoE) determines the relationship between the visibility and image scores.

A positive story well-covered merits compliments but a negative story covered extensively is not good for a company. Normally, all media reports for a given company are a combination of positive, neutral or negative articles. QoE is always expressed as a percentage.

EXECUTIVE TRACKING
Widening His Ambit

In the first week of November, when Ernst & Young India CEO Bobby Parikh (above) quit his job for "personal reasons", the industry wags attributed the 39-year-old's exit to succession issues at E&Y. At a meeting of the firm in Delhi recently, 48 out of the 61 partners of E&Y are understood to have elected Rajiv Memani, son of E&Y India's Chairman Kashi Memani, CEO and Chairman-elect of the firm through a show of hands. Apparently, that was too much for a stunned Parikh, who had joined E&Y in 2002 after the Andersen fiasco. He resigned immediately. Now, the grapevine has it that Parikh is talking to Ashok Wadhwa, CEO, Ambit Finance for his case and a few other partners frustrated with Memani & Son... er, Ernst & Young. When BT called up Parikh to check, he said: "I'll maintain a stoic silence, I won't comment on this issue now." We'll be watching.

-Moinak Mitra