One characteristic of a mature country is the independent thinking that goes on amongst its citizens. No dreams of any intellect-powered success, globally or otherwise, need even be entertained without that. So when phrases like 'feel-good' and 'no good' are spun out to help you shrinkwrap your mind, it may pay to subject them to more than just casual assessment.

There's much to talk on what's going good for India. Take economic growth, for instance, a once-neglected variable that key influencers have at long last put at the forefront of the country's aspirations. After a monsoon bonanza on the back of a severe drought, the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure has leapt past the Prime Minister's target of 8 per cent. The software export story continues to glow, bringing in dollars, even as overseas creditors stuff India's vaults with more-to help top $100 billion in foreign exchange reserves. Even before the ruling party, BJP, could pat its leadership on the back, the bse Sensex appears to have risen from last year's hurly-burly to match the trajectory of its vaulting ambition.

How much of a difference those statistics have made to the quality of ordinary people's lives, though, is not an easy question to answer. There is also the problem of the fiscal deficit, with all its postponed hardships, that lies unaddressed.

But lest the BJP be accused of 'QSQT' ('quarter-se-quarter-tak') myopia, the sort that's supposed to afflict those obsessed with immediate profit, the pm has started displaying bold signs of statesmanship through his peace initiative-his self-declared "last try"-on Kashmir. He has initiated talks with India's Western neighbour, and even with Kashmir's Hurriyat Conference-these are the boldest of the moves, particularly since they mark a somersault on earlier positions. Needless to say, they have silenced those who wax fervent for subcontinental peace.

On matters of domestic concern, the BJP could well claim that rarely in recent memory has the country been in such fine balance, and with some measure of credibility too. But discerning watchers of the country should, equally, be granted the caution they'd like to exercise in buying that assertion at face value. It has been a series of fortuitous factors beyond the leadership's control that have kept the going good, arguably. And you don't have to look too close to spy cracks of fragility in the whole package being held out.

What happens if conditions were to turn adverse? Could growth slip back to 5 per cent? Would a poor monsoon disturb things beyond retrieval? Does it all have to necessarily depend on whims from on high?

Economic reforms, as originally conceived, were intended to grant people greater sway over their own well-being-by freeing their livelihoods from arbitrary authority. This sounds like rarefied philosophy. But it is an issue of principle, and critically, consistency of principle. It is also an issue that extends beyond the economic sphere: of the reliability of institutions designed to take care of implementation.

By and large, India's institutional framework has held steady on principles, though there have been wobbles. Not everybody, it must be acknowledged, has had reason to feel good about his or her economic prospects, given the peculiar stresses and strains that this country, with all its size and diversity, has undergone. Moreover, issues of redistribution have had to make way for issues of economic growth. This is in keeping with market theory, but should not give legitimacy to the ignoring of income inequality as a cause for concern. Imbalance incurs risk.

Sure, a wobble here or crack there is not reason enough to fear a sudden loss of balance-and the possible horrors in consequence. Yet, any rational calculation of expectations must take all the risks into account, and also make a distinction between intentions and results. Don't underestimate the power of the risk-return equation in the aware mind.