This
magazine has always believed the India story. Ergo, the results
of the latest edition of the Foreign Direct Investment survey conducted
by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI),
which figure prominently across the front pages of dailies, do not
come as a surprise to it. For those who missed it, the gist of the
FICCI survey is this: there is no cause for concern. This magazine's
belief is based on fact, not fashion (and we must admit that India
is quite the in thing, here, and elsewhere in the world): corporate
India is on a roll-the results of 2,380 companies shows an increase
of 12.62 per cent in aggregate revenues and 35.38 per cent in aggregate
profits-and becoming globally competitive by the day; the manufacturing
sector is clearly making a comeback, one that is evident in macroeconomic
statistics and empirical data; and the monsoon, if initial estimates
are to be believed, promises to be as good as the last one.
India's economic fundamentals are healthy and
the FICCI survey, which says some 108 companies (out of 138 surveyed)
are open to investing in India, just bears this out. The fact that
the FICCI survey was done over the past three months- questionnaires,
it emerges, were sent out to companies and they responded over a
period of time with some responses coming in while the previous
government, the National Democratic Alliance was still in power
and others when the United Progressive Alliance had just taken office-and
its there-take-that timing of the survey (it comes when questions
are being raised about the UPA's ability to keep the India story
alive) is a tad hard to ignore, but overall, its findings ring true.
The intent to invest doesn't always translate
into greenbacks-don't we in this country know that all too well?-but
even that could change in an instant. Remember that the FICCI survey
was done over April, May, and June. And since coming to power in
late May, the UPA is yet to take any major economic decision. Had
the survey been done entirely in June, it would have likely displayed
some of the uncertainty dogging foreign and Indian investors (should
we invest, or shouldn't we?). Still, the India story, like we have
said, is still very much alive.
It won't be for long should the UPA choose
to embark on a spree of sops targeting various constituencies. Free
power for farmers may prevent the odd-agriculturist from killing
himself, although most such deaths have been caused by the simple
truth that small-hold farming isn't viable in India (and not because
of exorbitant power bills; that happens only in the metros), but
it will almost definitely hurt the cause of the power sector in
India. The government's decision not to divest its stake in public
sector banks may make bank unions happy, but it will adversely affect
M&A activity in a sector that is ripe for the same. And while
the UPA's stated objective of ensuring that the benefits of economic
reform trickle down to the rural poor is laudable, it will take
the economy nowhere should it come at the cost of urban prosperity.
A few policy pronouncements, some small provisions in the Budget
that is imminent could change things for the worse.
Few in-coming governments can resist the urge
to sweep the previous regime's policies out of the door and start
afresh. That's a temptation the UPA must defend against. Giving
economic reforms a human face, whatever that means, is a lofty notion.
And in India's case, it can probably be best achieved by doing nothing
to disturb the status quo.
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