JULY 18, 2004
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Q&A: Jim Spohrer
One-time venture capital man and currently Director, Services Research, IBM Almaden Research Lab, Jim Spohrer is betting big on the future of 'services sciences'. And while at it, he's also busy working with anthropologists and other social scientists who look quite out of place in a company of geeks. So what exactly is the man—and IBM's lab—up to?


NBIC Ambitions
NBIC? Well, Nanotech, Biotech, Infotech and Cognitive Sciences. They could pack quite some power, together.

More Net Specials
Business Today,  July 4, 2004
 
 
Still Shining


This magazine has always believed the India story. Ergo, the results of the latest edition of the Foreign Direct Investment survey conducted by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), which figure prominently across the front pages of dailies, do not come as a surprise to it. For those who missed it, the gist of the FICCI survey is this: there is no cause for concern. This magazine's belief is based on fact, not fashion (and we must admit that India is quite the in thing, here, and elsewhere in the world): corporate India is on a roll-the results of 2,380 companies shows an increase of 12.62 per cent in aggregate revenues and 35.38 per cent in aggregate profits-and becoming globally competitive by the day; the manufacturing sector is clearly making a comeback, one that is evident in macroeconomic statistics and empirical data; and the monsoon, if initial estimates are to be believed, promises to be as good as the last one.

India's economic fundamentals are healthy and the FICCI survey, which says some 108 companies (out of 138 surveyed) are open to investing in India, just bears this out. The fact that the FICCI survey was done over the past three months- questionnaires, it emerges, were sent out to companies and they responded over a period of time with some responses coming in while the previous government, the National Democratic Alliance was still in power and others when the United Progressive Alliance had just taken office-and its there-take-that timing of the survey (it comes when questions are being raised about the UPA's ability to keep the India story alive) is a tad hard to ignore, but overall, its findings ring true.

The intent to invest doesn't always translate into greenbacks-don't we in this country know that all too well?-but even that could change in an instant. Remember that the FICCI survey was done over April, May, and June. And since coming to power in late May, the UPA is yet to take any major economic decision. Had the survey been done entirely in June, it would have likely displayed some of the uncertainty dogging foreign and Indian investors (should we invest, or shouldn't we?). Still, the India story, like we have said, is still very much alive.

It won't be for long should the UPA choose to embark on a spree of sops targeting various constituencies. Free power for farmers may prevent the odd-agriculturist from killing himself, although most such deaths have been caused by the simple truth that small-hold farming isn't viable in India (and not because of exorbitant power bills; that happens only in the metros), but it will almost definitely hurt the cause of the power sector in India. The government's decision not to divest its stake in public sector banks may make bank unions happy, but it will adversely affect M&A activity in a sector that is ripe for the same. And while the UPA's stated objective of ensuring that the benefits of economic reform trickle down to the rural poor is laudable, it will take the economy nowhere should it come at the cost of urban prosperity. A few policy pronouncements, some small provisions in the Budget that is imminent could change things for the worse.

Few in-coming governments can resist the urge to sweep the previous regime's policies out of the door and start afresh. That's a temptation the UPA must defend against. Giving economic reforms a human face, whatever that means, is a lofty notion. And in India's case, it can probably be best achieved by doing nothing to disturb the status quo.

 

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