Pawan K. Munjal Managing Director, Hero Honda Motors	Haruo Takeguchi President and CEO Hond Motorcycle and Scooter India	Rajivnayan Bajaj Joint Managing Director Bajaj Auto

Honda never enters a market to be No 2," shrugs A.V. Srinivasan, Executive VP, Yamaha Motor India. R.L. Ravichandran, VP (Marketing), Bajaj Auto, expects Honda to go "mass-market soon." And Hero Honda Executive Director Atul Sobti perhaps sums it up best when he mutters: "No one should ever take Honda lightly."

If the competition in the Indian motorcycles market is worried about Honda's entry into this segment, it's not just because the Japanese two-wheeler giant is the largest mobike manufacturer in the world. Rather, it's Honda's celebrated and decidedly superior production, engineering and marketing skills that have helped it capture major world markets (in mobikes as well as cars) including the US that are giving rivals sleepless nights. Now, after playing second fiddle for decades in its joint venture with Hero Honda, Honda has decided to launch its first motorcycle in the country, the world's second largest two-wheeler market after China (even as it renewed its technical collaboration with the Munjals in May).

Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI), Honda Motor Co Japan's 100 per cent subsidiary, has already got a feel of the scooter segment, with the launch of Activa in 2001. The scooters market may not be a rage, but Activa certainly is, selling over a quarter of a million units since launch. But the big bang will clearly come with the mobike, expected to roll out in October, which will be branded the 'Unicorn', apparently because the bike will have a 'unishock' (single-shock absorber) design at the rear vis-a-vis the conventional dual-shock absorber. Industry observers point out that this bike could be a 150CC product, which as of today is a niche segment of just around 50,000-60,000 units a month. But clearly, Honda wouldn't be resting on a niche laurel, and a mass-market move is only a matter of time. Industry sources point out that HMSI has already developed its second motorcycle product for India. This is expected to be a 125CC motorcycle due for launch some time in 2005.

Clearly, it's the executive segment, of 2-2.5 lakh bikes per month, which is 60-65 per cent of the total mobike market, that's going to see most of the excitement. Hero Honda dominates this segment with the Splendour, Passion Plus and Ambition, with a 55 per cent marketshare. But that could change soon, what with a slew of new launches expected in this segment, as manufacturers attempt to protect their turf in the midst of a Honda onslaught. Come September, Bajaj Auto will launch the 125 CC Discover (formerly codenamed the K-60) in the Rs 45,000 range. Like the Pulsar, Discover is a totally indigenous Bajaj offering from its Chakan plant for which it has aggressive plans, including a ramp-up to 800 units in three months. TVS, meantime, has lined up a launch of an updated Fiero for early 2005, in the Rs 55,000-60,000 range. Market sources also point out that Suzuki is preparing the ground for a 125 CC launch in mid-2005. "With an established network of Maruti dealers in place, along with a tried and tested supply chain as well as brand recognition (courtesy their former tie-up with TVS), Suzuki could make a dent in the market," says Atul Sobti, Executive Director, Hero Honda Motors.

TVS has been losing marketshare with economy models such as Hero Honda's CD Dawn and Bajaj's CT 100 turning the heat on its TVS Max. The launch of a new four-stroke bike is expected to reverse this soon Venu Srinivasan, Chairman and Managing Director, TVS Motor

Sobti, of course, has little to say about the prospects of a Honda vs Hero Honda showdown, but clearly the Munjals aren't resting on their handlebars. Hero Honda is expected to roll out a 125 CC model in October-November, in the Rs 50,000-55,000 price range. You can't be too sure whether this is a Hero Honda salvo to counter the Honda onslaught, but what you can be sure of is that the 125 CC segment is where most of the action will be concentrated. The 100-110 CC range, more popular for their fuel economy, are beginning to outlive their usefulness. "The technology has emerged that makes 125CC products as efficient, and being a bigger engine these bikes are more powerful," points out A.L. Srinivasan, Executive Vice President, Yamaha Motor. "People want more performance without compromising on efficiency," adds Ravichandran.

What could upset the mobike fiesta is the failure of the monsoons to deliver (although at the time of writing, the rains were doing just fine). After all, the impact of a poor monsoon will begin to be felt in the second half of the fiscal beginning October. "The festive season is critical, and a major monsoon failure will hit the two-wheeler industry," warns R.L. Ravichandran, Vice President (Marketing), Bajaj Auto. Sobti of Hero Honda takes solace in the recent reports that indicate the monsoons aren't as bad as "we once believed they might be". The gods in the clouds may not disappoint, but even divine intervention may not be enough to protect many of India's motorcycle manufacturers once Honda unleashes its might in the domestic market.