Looking into the future is always an exercise that one approaches with trepidation. More so when it is a vision that is two decades head. Fortunately, since this is an exercise whose conclusions will presumably not be verified when the day actually dawns, it is an opportunity that allows one to be unabashedly optimistic. It is also a point to challenge conventional wisdom and romantic notions.

Many reasons have been postulated for India's imminent arrival as a developed nation and an economic superpower. The famous BRIC report of Goldman Sachs predicts that India's economy will be the third largest in size after the US and China by 2050. Everyone waxes eloquent about India's demographic dividend, which will ensure that the country has the largest pool of young talent over the next 20 years. The median age in India presently is 23.4 years. The high proportion of young people is expected to automatically allow for robust economic growth. The fiscal conservatives talk about the improvement in the tax/GDP ratio that will herald an end to the era of deficits, and give us the wherewithal to fund our future.

Beyond the usual reasons for predicting success, there is a need to focus on a trend that is often decried rather than celebrated-the trend towards urbanisation. This is something that is critical to becoming a fully developed nation and an economic powerhouse. For a nation weaned on rural imagery and still absorbing an electoral verdict that was ostensibly 'anti-urban', this may sound like heresy. For the suggestion is that we not just tolerate urbanisation, but that we welcome it, and embrace it. It means a conscious, deliberate and focussed attempt to accelerate the urbanisation of India, and reap its consequent benefits, be it economic growth, the societal move from relationships to rules, or the marrying of governance and the information society.

Urbanisation is an irreversible trend that has been creeping up on us. India's population, which was 300 million and 15 per cent urbanised in 1947, will be 1.5 billion and 50 per cent urbanised over the next few decades. An inadequate understanding of its inevitability and its benefits has led to urban chaos, and the cries to halt it or to at least delay it. The gross neglect of our cities has created unplanned urban sprawls, slums and large numbers of urban poor. The rapid growth due to outsourcing and the 'wealth effect' of young well-off workers has put unprecedented pressure on urban infrastructure and facilities. The natural response is to see how to slow it down. In fact, this should only motivate us to speed it up.

The first important benefit of having more cities and towns is that it will enhance the rate of economic growth. Our cities are brands, competing with other cities around the world for investment. They are our engines of growth, and need to be developed and marketed. The economies of scale and the congregation of people and talent allow for the creation of more sophisticated economic frameworks that enhance productivity, innovation and job creation. Since there is a strong correlation between urbanisation and the growth of the share of services in GDP, this will create a whole new set of jobs that did not exist. Moreover, since urbanisation will create service jobs that help in improving and streamlining the supply chain in transport, logistics and retail, it will actually lubricate the manufacturing and agricultural sector. And strong cities will be the windows to global trade.

Planned, accelerated urbanisation will actually benefit the rural areas and the farmers. It will absorb excess labour, and reduce the unemployment and underemployment that plague our villages. The resulting reduction in rural labour will help in increasing incomes, and will create pressure for efficiency. It is the migration of families from the villages to the cities, rather than just a mail-order economy, that will pave the way for land holding to be rationalised, and productivity to be enhanced.

The anonymity of the city will of course help in breaking traditional silos of caste and creed. Today, we are a society in flux-we are in the throes of moving from a 'relationship'-based society to a 'rule'-based one. In a society based on relationships, your entire future is based on which community or religion you belong to. In a village, your caste is stamped on your forehead and in your demeanour. In a crowded suburban Mumbai train, however, squashed with hundreds of other commuters, the caste and creed of your fellow travellers are of little consequence. What matters is getting to Churchgate on time. Once you create more urban conglomerations, the focus of the people moves to amenities. It is about water supply, sanitation, good roads, schools and jobs. The managerial competence of the ruler becomes more important than caste-based permutations. This in turn leads to demands for a level playing field of opportunities. Once these demands become more vociferous, the only rational way to satisfy all the constituents is to have a transparent set of rules that everyone can live by.

Rapid urbanisation is the best way to create the social churn that you need to dissolve the inequities of birth, and create a society oriented towards performance

Over time, the number of people who have a vested interest in these rules will exceed the numbers who have a vested interest in relationships. Once this tipping point is reached, it will be reflected in the kind of people whom you elect, the kind of rules that you frame, and the kind of focus you bring to your governance. In other words, rapid urbanisation is the best way to create the social churn that you need to dissolve the inequities of birth, and create a society oriented towards performance.

Since the key to improving governance is the marrying of information to governance, the city is the ideal place to test out the concept. It is the first point of contact of the citizen with the state. The creation of information systems and the re-engineering of citizen processes can be quickly developed and tested in our cities. Moreover, since the problems are fairly identical, it is relatively easier to replicate the solution across many cities. The experience of the citizen with information-enabled improvements in civic governance will whet his appetite for such reforms in other areas.

So far, we have had an ambivalent view of urbanisation. Since India 'lives' in the villages, cities and urban centres are seen as necessary evils. The whole focus is on 'slowing down' rural migration to cities. In fact, as we can see, the counter-intuitive solution is accelerating rural migration to cities, and setting goals for this move. Of course, for those mired in the problems of our dilapidated and dysfunctional cities, this may sound like a recipe for disaster. Clearly, a move of this sort will require rapid upgradation and improvement in the management, planning and infrastructure of our cities and towns. Stringent urban planning laws and focussed public governance will become critical. But if you are looking for the most bang for the buck, a focussed effort on upgrading 400 towns and cities will be far more feasible than that of upgrading 6,00,000 villages.

It is true that while migration should increase, we do need to maintain an acceptable level. Mass-migration from rural to urban areas can result in the collapse of public governance and city infrastructure, and with great numbers of urban poor, social tensions in cities will be exacerbated. The solution essentially amounts to a balancing act between urbanisation by migration and urbanisation through increase in area. Such a balance can be attained only if we have a broad agenda when it comes to urbanisation, which involves the parallel upgradation of both cities and towns. This kind of broad-based urbanisation can be kicked off with investment in infrastructure in surrounding towns, creating an 'urban network' of towns and cities that encourages companies, attracted by lower costs and quality infrastructure, to relocate to the smaller towns. As industry there develops, the urban network becomes a self-fulfilling cycle as people migrate to the towns for work, and the town grows into an urban cluster, and begins to spread.

Fortunately, the tools and techniques for this kind of transformation are well known and widely available. They cover a grab bag of initiatives. These include the use of modern financial accounting tools to monitor and manage the raising and spending of resources in a city. It means leveraging the citizenry to participate in civic governance and to act as collective ombudsmen for the city. It means mandating cities to run with the same clockwork precision and regularity of private corporations by ensuring that they practise standards of disclosure comparable with the private sector. And it means streamlining and defining clear accountability for the various bodies and agencies that are running amuck in our cities, often at cross-purposes, with no democratic oversight. The use of digital spatial tools for planning and administration will be essential. Such an overhaul can also be precipitated by creating public-private partnership in civic governance. It can accelerate the adoption of modern tools and private management practices, create accountability and speed up reform in our city corporations. Public-private partnerships are also easier to implement in cities before they are attempted in other areas.

We are fortunate that the emerging mega-trends in the world are working in our favour. Outsourcing will continue to boom. It will extend itself from it and the BPO sector to apparel, consumer durables, automotive and many other industries. As the western economies age, increase their dependency ratio, and remain wary of migration, outsourcing will become their only option. The pressure on public finances will curtail the West from the huge subsidies that support their farmers. This will open the door for India to emerge as a major agricultural exporting nation. The global opportunity will arrive just as we have the world's largest pool of young workers. The aging populations of the West, fearful of the risk of state-funded pensions evaporating, will direct their savings to where they get the best returns. Our young workforce will then get matched to the avalanche of global capital. The consequent rise in jobs and incomes will fuel unprecedented economic growth. The only thing that will hold us back is the state of our cities. We need a present plan that is worthy of our future potential.

The key to fulfilling our vision therefore, is to see urbanisation not as a problem, but as an opportunity!