Imagine
a three-wheeler with one flat tyre affixed to a damaged axle.
Now imagine this vehicle speeding down an expressway at 100 mph...
It defies logic, right? But that's precisely what the Indian economy
has been doing these last few years. The industry and the services
sectors have been pushing the economy forward at a furious pace,
agricultural lethargy-the flat tyre on the broken axle in the
example above-notwithstanding.
The sector was crying out for a fix. Now,
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has attempted to do just that.
Further, he has supplemented this with efforts to ensure that
the benefits of the country's steroid-charged growth rates percolate
down to those who need them most. The logic is quite simple: if
farm sector growth picks up from 2.3 per cent to 4 per cent, this
will put additional purchasing power in the hands of 65 per cent
of India's population who depend on it for their livelihood. The
virtuous circle will then kick in, taking the country's economic
growth into double figures.
So far, so good. Few, if any, can argue with
the Finance Minister's good intentions. But Business Today has
serious misgivings about how efficacious these measures will be.
The allocation for education has been raised by Rs 8,237 crore
in absolute terms. Will this result in placing more children in
the education system? Or, will this bloat the army of ghost teachers,
who exist only on the payrolls of the government? Will this, as
the Finance Minister hopes, stop children from dropping out of
school, or will this merely add to the army of neo-literates who
can only sign their names? Healthcare, for which an additional
Rs 2,745 crore has been allocated, suffers from similar infirmities
on the delivery front. Ditto for the NREG scheme, where several
states have failed to even lift, let alone utilise, the funds
earmarked for them. There are very real fears that, in the absence
of a programme to improve the delivery channels, the increased
Budget allocations for the rural and social sectors could become
a euphemism for a multi-thousand-crore largesse for corrupt politicians,
bureaucrats and contractors.
One cannot also avoid the feeling that Chidambaram
has missed a trick or two in his Budget. Revenues are buoyant,
the fiscal and revenue deficit targets are on track and the economy
is charging ahead. The time was just right for him to initiate
structural adjustments that would have set the tone for the years
ahead. Tax reforms, obviously, top the list. The conditions were
ideal for doing away with myriad exemptions and simplifying both
the direct and indirect tax regimes. But, perhaps because of political
pressures, the Budget has made no move in that direction. In fact,
some of his measures defy logic. The differential excise duties
on cement, the imposition of Fringe Benefit Tax on ESOPs and the
extension of mat to it companies are three measures that have
been widely criticised as retrograde, with some justification.
There also doesn't seem to be any serious attempt at fighting
inflation. Yes, the customs duties on some items have been cut,
but these seem too ad hoc and disjointed to suggest the existence
of a bigger picture.
The stock markets have reacted badly, but
to be fair to Mr Chidambaram, it must be added that this is because
his Budget did not live up to the hype generated in the run-up
to it, and not because his proposals were intrinsically bad or
anti-industry. And in any case, a part of the blame for the crash
must be apportioned to the global meltdown that took place on
B-day. Also, it must be said that the market, which typically
looks only at the next quarter, is perhaps not the right filter
through which to view a Budget that expressly tries to address
the needs of the "other India".
In sum, it's not really a bad Budget, as
several people are making it out to be. It's just that the Finance
Minister has been too timid to unfurl his sails to catch the high
wind that is blowing over the economy. And therein lies a story
of missed opportunities.
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