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MARCH, 2007
 Cover Story
 Editorial
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 Sector Analysis
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FDI And FII
The centre is looking at removing the distinction between FDI and FII investments. This will impact sectors like asset reconstruction, real estate and aviation, where separate ceilings apply to FDI and FII investment. However, allowing FDI through the FII route in the realty sector could result in prices shooting through the roof. The Asian financial crisis of the '90s is still fresh in mind, and a method should be devised to moderate possible volatility in key sectors.


S&P And After
For the first time in 14 years, international credit rating agency, Standard and Poor's (S&P), has raised India's credit rating to investment grade. S&P is the last of the three major international rating agencies to do so. Moody's Investors Service did it in January 2004 and Fitch Ratings in August 2006. The upgrade is likely to spur the flow of foreign investment into power, steel and other industries, which receive less than a tenth of the funds going China's way.
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BUDGET 2007
Too Timid By Half
 
Imagine a three-wheeler with one flat tyre affixed to a damaged axle. Now imagine this vehicle speeding down an expressway at 100 mph... It defies logic, right? But that's precisely what the Indian economy has been doing these last few years. The industry and the services sectors have been pushing the economy forward at a furious pace, agricultural lethargy-the flat tyre on the broken axle in the example above-notwithstanding.

The sector was crying out for a fix. Now, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has attempted to do just that. Further, he has supplemented this with efforts to ensure that the benefits of the country's steroid-charged growth rates percolate down to those who need them most. The logic is quite simple: if farm sector growth picks up from 2.3 per cent to 4 per cent, this will put additional purchasing power in the hands of 65 per cent of India's population who depend on it for their livelihood. The virtuous circle will then kick in, taking the country's economic growth into double figures.

So far, so good. Few, if any, can argue with the Finance Minister's good intentions. But Business Today has serious misgivings about how efficacious these measures will be. The allocation for education has been raised by Rs 8,237 crore in absolute terms. Will this result in placing more children in the education system? Or, will this bloat the army of ghost teachers, who exist only on the payrolls of the government? Will this, as the Finance Minister hopes, stop children from dropping out of school, or will this merely add to the army of neo-literates who can only sign their names? Healthcare, for which an additional Rs 2,745 crore has been allocated, suffers from similar infirmities on the delivery front. Ditto for the NREG scheme, where several states have failed to even lift, let alone utilise, the funds earmarked for them. There are very real fears that, in the absence of a programme to improve the delivery channels, the increased Budget allocations for the rural and social sectors could become a euphemism for a multi-thousand-crore largesse for corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and contractors.

One cannot also avoid the feeling that Chidambaram has missed a trick or two in his Budget. Revenues are buoyant, the fiscal and revenue deficit targets are on track and the economy is charging ahead. The time was just right for him to initiate structural adjustments that would have set the tone for the years ahead. Tax reforms, obviously, top the list. The conditions were ideal for doing away with myriad exemptions and simplifying both the direct and indirect tax regimes. But, perhaps because of political pressures, the Budget has made no move in that direction. In fact, some of his measures defy logic. The differential excise duties on cement, the imposition of Fringe Benefit Tax on ESOPs and the extension of mat to it companies are three measures that have been widely criticised as retrograde, with some justification. There also doesn't seem to be any serious attempt at fighting inflation. Yes, the customs duties on some items have been cut, but these seem too ad hoc and disjointed to suggest the existence of a bigger picture.

The stock markets have reacted badly, but to be fair to Mr Chidambaram, it must be added that this is because his Budget did not live up to the hype generated in the run-up to it, and not because his proposals were intrinsically bad or anti-industry. And in any case, a part of the blame for the crash must be apportioned to the global meltdown that took place on B-day. Also, it must be said that the market, which typically looks only at the next quarter, is perhaps not the right filter through which to view a Budget that expressly tries to address the needs of the "other India".

In sum, it's not really a bad Budget, as several people are making it out to be. It's just that the Finance Minister has been too timid to unfurl his sails to catch the high wind that is blowing over the economy. And therein lies a story of missed opportunities.

 

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