There's no chicken-and-egg puzzle here. First good management, then good financials. Which explains why the world's savviest investors watch management more than the numbers. It also explains why it takes BT's Super Sixteen to turn Rs 100 into Rs 1,141 on the stock market in just six-and-a-quarter years.

Formulating a retrospective portfolio is no big deal. The challenge is to figure out which 16 could deliver spiffy returns over the next six-and-a-quarter years. Would it be these?

Prospects

Some analysts would pick Reliance (a stock to 'hold') without batting an eyelid, despite the group's telecom troubles. Thanks to strong cash flows, the company has enormous resilience. By the time the benefits of the gas find off the Andhra coast kick in, by 2004-05, Reliance would have established itself as an energy major-on the retail front too.

Asian Paints ('buy on dips') remains attractive for its R&D efforts and overseas expansion, even as it widens its offer basket domestically. Dr Reddy's ('hold'), according to Jamshed Desai, Head of Research, Taib Securities, "is clearly in the virtuous cycle of the global generics market. While there are little ups and down in global generics, it's a win-some lose-some game. Given the ANDA filings and opportunities available, this company would win more." For specialty pharma, Sun Pharma ('buy on dips') is a long-term story with enough mind and money vested in therapy domains such as cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, and gastroenterology, to come good. "Five years down the line," predicts Rohit Bhat, Pharma Analyst, Batlivala and Karani Securities, "Sun should be in the top five Indian pharmaceutical companies."

The poor guidance from Infosys ('buy') may have put off some investors, but the software story remains compelling if you discount the hiccups. "All said and done," says Jayesh Parekh, Technology analyst, Motilal Oswal Securities, "Infosys has all the ingredients-a strong balance sheet with robust cash flows, a sustainable business model and an excellent management, to survive the ups and downs." Wipro ('buy') too has been running to stand still, faced with the same margin pressure. But, says Parekh, "The strong management, organisation and business depth have seen the company through, in spite of the fall in business." However, Satyam, the price warrior, might have to bank on an upturn in market conditions.

TVS Motor ('hold') has struck it big with Victor, launched last year. Other such launches could do wonders for it. Oil player HPCL, though, has been riddled by disinvestment doubt. "While the business is robust and offers immense value and growth, the unlocking of value depends on what happens to the divestment debate," opines Desai.

Moser Baer ('hold'), the info-disc maker, has been expanding furiously, of late. And higher value-added products could nudge up margins. Britannia has shored up margins by hiving off its dairy business and geared itself for volumes with market-penetrative additions to its biscuits range. Cadbury, meanwhile, is trying to deepen chocolate penetration in India; a pity that the company has delisted from Indian bourses.

HDFC Bank ('hold') remains a sharp performer amongst banks, currently in the spotlight. "The Bank has its strategy, infrastructure and focus in place," says Rajat Rajgariha, Banking analyst Motilal Oswal Securities, "It has always been ahead of time in identifying the next growth area, and putting the required infrastructure in place for it."

As for ICICI Bank ('hold'), though the merger with its parent ICICI has tilted the asset portfolio towards corporate loans, the retail thrust continues unabated. The bank's NPA ratio remains comfortably low.

Hindalco ('hold') has sorted out its power crisis, and is looking aggressive. Gujarat Ambuja ('buy on dips') has just added on new capacity, and is playing on internal efficiency coupled with volumes, premised on India's construction boom, even as cement margins dip.

Risks

Now, if the set of India's 16 best managed companies looks completely different some years down the line, don't say we didn't mention the R-word. They may not be significant, but risks do exist. Reliance's new gambits are thought to face execution risks, for example, in the absence of the unifying force of group patriarch Dhirubhai Ambani.

Asian Paints' overseas foray could possibly run into unexpected market-related and other operating complexities. Dr Reddy's and Sun Pharma both operate in an inherently risky field, where legal entanglements and R&D deadends could pop fortunes. Infosys and Wipro, likewise, now face such intense competition from global software players that these firms are still in make-or-break mode, in a sense. Satyam faces the additional worry of limitations in its management bandwidth, compared to Wipro and Infosys. TVS Motors, meanwhile, must worry about its rivals revving up again for a close race. HPCL has myriad unresolved issues that could jeopardise its future. Moser Baer could run into trade barriers. Britannia is currently beset with leadership turbulence, given Sunil Alagh's impending departure. Hindalco has copper headaches. HDFC Bank risks being left out of the home-loan action (on account of its parent), while ICICI Bank must bear some if its parent's burdens. Still, Super 16 these are.