Quick,
what's the difference between FBI and FDI? One is paid to spook
around, and the other is too spooked to play around.
Either way, from the Indian perspective, neither
seems to be going beyond half-measures. To gauge the disappointment,
think back to the India of late 1991. This was the time that ambitious
youngsters, for once, were not desperate to 'get the hell out' of
the country, because the rest of the world would soon be desperate
to 'get the hell in'. After decades of isolationism, India was opening
its economy to foreign direct investment (FDI), and since China
had been transformed by FDI in just a decade, there was good reason
to rejoice. Awww-right-way to go!
Well, over a decade has passed, and the premature
rejoicers are looking certifiably naïve. Alas, FDI into India
has not gone exponential. It has averaged a pathetic 0.5 per cent
of GDP, though bounty years such as 1997-98 and 2001-02 have seen
the figure spike up to 0.9 per cent (China, meanwhile, is at 5 per
cent and rising). The trouble is that such FDI is just too meagre
to make a noticeable difference to the electorate's fortunes. And
so long as this is so, the whole case for FDI remains in danger
of losing out to microscopic (even myopic) local interests.
Saw last fortnight's spectacle? The Union Cabinet
deferred a decision on the FDI proposals made by the N.K. Singh
Committee asking for greater foreign equity participation in the
domestic insurance, telecom and aviation industries.
As a symbolic move, to signal the government's
reforms intent, a go-ahead mattered all the more because of the
Cabinet Committee on Disinvestment meet that stalled the sell-off
of oil PSUs. Sure, privatisation is not the be-all and end-all of
liberalisation, but it has a direct bearing on the familiar questions
that seem destined to haunt us in perpetuity. Will India ever move
from big government to small? Will fiscal rectitude ever be observed?
Will private capital from overseas ever swarm in? Will the government
ever take a cohesive view of FDI's role in the Indian economy?
Predictably, global rebuke was swift, as expressed
by the Standard & Poor's downgrade of rupee debt to bb+. Indian
bond yields, however, haven't risen; nor has local lending visibly
shuddered. That's a relief. By way of damage control, the Finance
Secretary has done well to highlight the economy's positives. Growth
is okay, forex reserves are high and, a big electorally relevant
fact, inflation is subdued.
There's no need to overreact to world opinion.
But get real, we must. Take FDI. As it is, India traumatises foreign
investors with a thicket of procedural encumbrances, infrastructural
deficiencies, one-way capital-account convertibility and uncertainty
on policy direction. Feels more like a bed of nails than a red carpet.
Anyhow, the brave businesses-less than half the Fortune 500 are
here -who do venture into India, do so either for global idealism
(Coke and Pepsi) or for extreme long-termism, to invest for the
eventual benefit of their "children's children" (GE and
Nestle).
Satisfactory? No. FDI won't work its magic
until it hits at least 3 per cent of GDP (say, $13 billion). For
that, businesses must not just be eyeing India, but salivating at
the prospect of entering the market. For that, everyone needs a
good thwack of realism.
'Strategic sector' protectionists must realise
that rapid economic growth (powered at least partly by FDI) is the
only worthwhile strategic tool for a country with as many people
as the US population unable to afford minimum daily calorie intake.
Sundry 'swadeshi' sentimentalists must learn that India cannot be
a superpower without economic success, and for that it simply needs
the world's capital, not to mention intellectual resources.
Lastly, isolationists must admit that India
isn't a planet in an orbit of its own making, free to defy universal
laws. Remember what the International Monetary Fund-man Stanley
Fischer said at the India Today Conclave last February? "There
is no divine dispensation that gives India alone the power to survive
and prosper as an isolationist island in a globalised world."
Know who he was quoting? The Indian Prime Minister's Economic Advisory
Council.
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