|  
  Quick, 
              what's the difference between FBI and FDI? One is paid to spook 
              around, and the other is too spooked to play around.  Either way, from the Indian perspective, neither 
              seems to be going beyond half-measures. To gauge the disappointment, 
              think back to the India of late 1991. This was the time that ambitious 
              youngsters, for once, were not desperate to 'get the hell out' of 
              the country, because the rest of the world would soon be desperate 
              to 'get the hell in'. After decades of isolationism, India was opening 
              its economy to foreign direct investment (FDI), and since China 
              had been transformed by FDI in just a decade, there was good reason 
              to rejoice. Awww-right-way to go!   Well, over a decade has passed, and the premature 
              rejoicers are looking certifiably naïve. Alas, FDI into India 
              has not gone exponential. It has averaged a pathetic 0.5 per cent 
              of GDP, though bounty years such as 1997-98 and 2001-02 have seen 
              the figure spike up to 0.9 per cent (China, meanwhile, is at 5 per 
              cent and rising). The trouble is that such FDI is just too meagre 
              to make a noticeable difference to the electorate's fortunes. And 
              so long as this is so, the whole case for FDI remains in danger 
              of losing out to microscopic (even myopic) local interests.  Saw last fortnight's spectacle? The Union Cabinet 
              deferred a decision on the FDI proposals made by the N.K. Singh 
              Committee asking for greater foreign equity participation in the 
              domestic insurance, telecom and aviation industries.   As a symbolic move, to signal the government's 
              reforms intent, a go-ahead mattered all the more because of the 
              Cabinet Committee on Disinvestment meet that stalled the sell-off 
              of oil PSUs. Sure, privatisation is not the be-all and end-all of 
              liberalisation, but it has a direct bearing on the familiar questions 
              that seem destined to haunt us in perpetuity. Will India ever move 
              from big government to small? Will fiscal rectitude ever be observed? 
              Will private capital from overseas ever swarm in? Will the government 
              ever take a cohesive view of FDI's role in the Indian economy?  Predictably, global rebuke was swift, as expressed 
              by the Standard & Poor's downgrade of rupee debt to bb+. Indian 
              bond yields, however, haven't risen; nor has local lending visibly 
              shuddered. That's a relief. By way of damage control, the Finance 
              Secretary has done well to highlight the economy's positives. Growth 
              is okay, forex reserves are high and, a big electorally relevant 
              fact, inflation is subdued.  There's no need to overreact to world opinion. 
              But get real, we must. Take FDI. As it is, India traumatises foreign 
              investors with a thicket of procedural encumbrances, infrastructural 
              deficiencies, one-way capital-account convertibility and uncertainty 
              on policy direction. Feels more like a bed of nails than a red carpet. 
              Anyhow, the brave businesses-less than half the Fortune 500 are 
              here -who do venture into India, do so either for global idealism 
              (Coke and Pepsi) or for extreme long-termism, to invest for the 
              eventual benefit of their "children's children" (GE and 
              Nestle).  Satisfactory? No. FDI won't work its magic 
              until it hits at least 3 per cent of GDP (say, $13 billion). For 
              that, businesses must not just be eyeing India, but salivating at 
              the prospect of entering the market. For that, everyone needs a 
              good thwack of realism.  'Strategic sector' protectionists must realise 
              that rapid economic growth (powered at least partly by FDI) is the 
              only worthwhile strategic tool for a country with as many people 
              as the US population unable to afford minimum daily calorie intake. 
              Sundry 'swadeshi' sentimentalists must learn that India cannot be 
              a superpower without economic success, and for that it simply needs 
              the world's capital, not to mention intellectual resources.   Lastly, isolationists must admit that India 
              isn't a planet in an orbit of its own making, free to defy universal 
              laws. Remember what the International Monetary Fund-man Stanley 
              Fischer said at the India Today Conclave last February? "There 
              is no divine dispensation that gives India alone the power to survive 
              and prosper as an isolationist island in a globalised world." 
              Know who he was quoting? The Indian Prime Minister's Economic Advisory 
              Council. |