It
is the season for lists. The issue you hold in your hands, constant
reader, is the annual BT 500, the listing of India's best and brightest
by one measure- their average market capitalisation in the first
half of this financial year. It isn't, alas, the only list of its
kind. Analysts, editors, and sundry others who do not work for this
publication have every right to come up with metrics and listings
all their own, and that's just the way it should be in a free market.
There is a simple recipe for this: quote an economist or two, knock
the BT 500, arrive at a new way of listing companies, however asinine
it may be, and don't spare the adjectives while describing it.
The BT 500 is a market-oriented list. It is
a ranking of listed companies in terms of market capitalisation.
Unlisted companies? Well, we've been trying to crack that problem
for some time, but there just doesn't seem to be any accurate way
to rank unlisted companies, or compile a listed-unlisted aggregate
list without compromising two of business journalism's fundamental
tenets: truth, and the representativeness of the data presented.
The minute we find out a way to include the likes of Microsoft India,
IBM India, GE Capital, PepsiCo India, Coca-Cola, Hutchison Max,
McDonald's, Sony, Jet, and DaimlerChrysler we'll be happy to feature
a list. Heck, we'd love to do it. Only, we do not want to do a half-and-half
in the name of comprehensiveness. Listed companies it is, then.
And we will stick to our tradition of separate listings for the
private sector and the public sector.
Now, for the metric: just why are we obsessed
with market capitalisation? Sales would be too short-term; assets,
downright misleading. Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited, for instance,
boasts sales of Rs 6,508.1 crore in 2001-02. Is that a measure of
how valuable it is? We think not.
THE BT 500 DOES NOT INCLUDE UNLISTED COMPANIES
BECAUSE: |
»
Data on sales and profits isn't available
for large companies such as Microsoft India, GE Capital, Coca-Cola,
PepsiCo Holdings, and IBM India
»
Data on sales and profits available for most other unlisted
companies is dated---at least a year old
»
The most 'comprehensive' listing possible of such companies,
10, would be incomplete and based on old data |
The Tata Group may well have paid too much for
reserves it cannot touch (remember the Rs 1,200-crore controversy),
licences that do not really cost that much (Reliance paid Rs 25
crore for the international long distance licence; Bharti did Rs
500 crore for the domestic long distance licence, including bank
guarantees), and access that could soon go phut! The erstwhile monopoly,
after all, is locked in a messy revenue-sharing battle with BSNL
and MTNL, the two carriers that originate and terminate its long
distance calls. Does the number Rs 6,508.1 crore tell us this? No.
Does its total assets of Rs 7,621.18 crore tell us this? No. What
does, is its market capitalisation of Rs 4,387.14 crore for the
first half of this year, down from Rs 8,401 crore for the corresponding
period last year.
The Indian stockmarket may not be perfect,
but it rarely goes wrong over the long-term. Thus HFCL, a company
that once nudged the honours list of the BT 500 (it was ranked 29
in 2000) is ranked 101. In terms of assets it would rank 41; in
terms of sales, 94. Consider one more case. Ailing fertiliser maker
spic ranks 42 in terms of sales and 48 in terms of assets. Its ranking
according to the BT 500 is 391, which is probably where it belongs.
We rest our case.
Sales can be bought and assets often end up
being under-utilised-indeed, for most part of the 1980s, several
Indian conglomerates, spic included, invested in assets that haven't
really paid off. The market, for all its inefficiencies, is the
only impartial (our apologies, but we really, oops, had to use that
word here) judge of a company's value. It is a rough-and-ready measure
of a company's ability to create value in the future. And it factors
in qualitative variables, such as, in one of the numerical illustrations
we have provided, the impact of VSNL's tiff with MTNL and BSNL.
The data that accompanies the BT 500 is as
current as can be. The ranking itself is based on the average market
capitalisation for the first half of the year and most sales and
profit figures relate to the financial year 2001-02.
The BT 500, as we already mentioned, isn't
the only list of its kind; pretenders abound. But it is the most
market-focussed, and most authoritative list yet. Sit back, and
enjoy the ride.
THE SALES-ASSET MISREPRESENTATION
A random sampling of BT 500 companies to
show how wrong, well, wrong is. |
COMPANY |
SALES
|
ASSETS
|
RETURN ON ASSETS
|
MARKET
CAP
|
Tata Steel |
6,707.9(6)
|
12,823.64(6)
|
2.97
|
4,441 (20)
|
Videocon International |
3,350.715)
|
4,029.88(36)
|
4.26
|
224.85 (192)
|
Daewoo Motors India |
899.44(92)
|
4,057.99(35)
|
-4.94
|
212.48(196)
|
Century Textiles |
2,197(26)
|
2,648.3(56)
|
-0.2
|
455.95(112)
|
Ispat Industries |
1,838.3(36)
|
9,012.89(10)
|
-7.05
|
277.14(159)
|
All figures in Rs crore except return
on assets, which is in per cent. Figures in brackets indicate
ranks on that parameter. |
|