It's
not often that fund managers are caught napping, but that's exactly
what happened in November. Consider: Last month the benchmark indices,
the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex and the S&P Nifty, spurted
9.43 per cent and 10.67 per cent, respectively. You have to call
them spurts because the last time the indices reacted in such a
manner was way back in January 2001. Whatever the reasons-the cut
in bank rates, Bill Gates' rah-rah views on Indian software companies,
the pick-up on the Nasdaq, you take your pick-the markets had clearly
heard something they hadn't for some time.
Surprisingly, although almost everyone within
sniffing distance of Dalal Street caught on to the run-up on the
bourses, most of the motley mutual fund manager crew missed out.
How else would you explain the meagre 7.39 per cent return clocked
by the equity-based schemes that are a part of our study! And, remember,
this was in a month when it stocks ruled the roost, with the BSE
it index shooting up by an astronomical 20.34 per cent. Mercifully,
however, it wasn't a total washout, with 15 per cent of the schemes
studied succeeding in beating the S&P Nifty, and roughly 44
per cent doing better than the norm.
Those
funds that did ride the rally of November could do so largely because
of their higher exposures to it stocks. Prudential ICICI Technology
Fund dished out the best returns of 18.32 per cent, with Franklin
Infotech Fund and UTI Growth Sector-Software not too far behind.
Prudential ICICI was particularly aggressive
in HCL Technologies, with CanBank and DSP Merrill also increasing
their holdings. Birla Mutual, DSP, Kotak, Tata and IL&Fs took
to Visual Soft Technologies in a special way, whilst Mastek caught
the fancy of Prudential ICICI, Alliance and Birla. Polaris Software
attracted the buying interest of Franklin, CanBank, Kotak and Tata.
Alliance, for its part, decided to stay away from the stock. Satyam
Computer was a mixed bag with Birla and Franklin buying, and Prudential,
Zurich, DSP and HDFC selling the stock. Says Dileep Madgavkar, CIO,
Prudential ICICI: "While we would stay invested in the mainline
tech companies, we'll also be looking at smaller players in niche
segments."
The petroleum sector might have been the flavour
of October, but a month is all it took for the public sector oil
stocks to fall out of favour, the seemingly never-ending imbroglio
over disinvestment being the predictable reason for the see-saw.
As a result, October's best performer quickly
became November's worst, with a 7.80 per cent return transforming
into a minuscule 0.44 dole-out. Of course, you can't write off BPCL
and HPCL yet, and December could once again prove to be the month
of the oil PSUs.
The indecision and lack of transparency surrounding
disinvestment mean that fund managers have to be on the ball when
making a call in these stocks. Many funds that were buying HPCL
last month turned sellers. Alliance, Birla, IL&Fs, Prudential
ICICI and Tata reduced their exposure. Says Prasad Nalam, CIO, Sundaram
Newton, "Churning sectors and stocks would be frequent, since
this fund is positioned that way."
Zurich defied the sell-spree, and in fact mopped
up more of HPCL stocks. BPCL caught the fancy of Birla, Franklin
and Zurich, with HDFC and Tata opting to reduce their holding in
the stock. ONGC didn't find much favour either, with a host of funds
offloading their holding in that stock.
The month also saw a flurry of interest in
a few bank stocks, State Bank of India being the firm favourite.
A number of funds invested aggressively in the public sector bank's
stocks in November, propelling it to a new 52-week high.
Other banks that made it to the buy list were
ICICI Bank, which was bought by Alliance, Birla and DSP Merrill
Lynch, and Union Bank of India, which was picked by HDFC Mutual
Fund and DSP. Alliance also picked up Punjab National Bank along
with Reliance Mutual Fund. The banks that didn't figure on the fund
managers' radar in November included Jammu & Kashmir Bank, IDBI
Bank, Bank of India, Syndicate Bank, and Bank of Baroda.
The so-called old economy bandwagon didn't
witness much movement, with most money managers probably preferring
to avoid Larsen & Toubro and Grasim till investigations by SEBI
into the latter and the demerger proposal of the former showed signs
of reaching a conclusion.
There were funds that reduced their exposure
to the old economy pack, but the quantum wasn't significant. Reliance
Industries was offloaded by a few fund houses but in very small
lots. Fast moving consumer goods stalwart Hindustan Lever was picked
up by Birla and Zurich, with Franklin, HDFC and IL&Fs going
the other way.
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