Eventually,
after all the confetti and applications had settled, Maruti Udyog's
72,243,300-share initial public offer (IPO) for a quarter of its
equity was oversubscribed not nine, not 10, but 13 times. The long-dozing
primary market has not just stirred, it has jolted itself up. Retail
participation is back, and with a bang. Excellent.
But what, other than that, are the lessons?
When people start asking their neighbours over
their garden fences if they're applying for the shares, an IPO is
certain to be a resounding success. So that's one lesson: the power
of good IPO marketing. The Maruti IPO was heavily publicised in
print and on TV, and then distributed through a vast network of
700 centres across 70 cities.
The other lesson, as apparently absorbed by
SEBI, is less obvious than the first one. The Maruti IPO took the
'book building' route, which employs a form of auction, the express
purpose of which is to prevent IPOs from turning into blind roulette-luck
games (as they were in the inglorious days of CCI-controlled issue
pricing). This is a good method. Applicants bid for shares at, or
above, the pre-declared floor price-Rs 115 per share in Maruti's
case. As it turned out, most applicants put in bids for the car-maker's
shares at Rs 120-125. And so it is that the shares are now being
allotted at Rs 125 each, in a ratio of 60:25:15 to institutions,
small retail investors and high net worth individuals, respectively.
You can attribute the fact that most retail
bids were no more than Rs 10 above the floor price to investor psychology,
since the floor is popularly assumed to be the 'fair value' price.
You can also assume that the institutions ran their own valuation
methodologies to arrive at similar bids. But the very purpose of
an auction is to let the price get bid higher and higher as demand
swells and competition for allotment intensifies. That most bids
remained at around Rs 125 is rather strange-given the final oversubscription.
But then again, perhaps the fraction of shares
reserved for retail investors was not large enough for the competition
to be very intense. This is why the recent move by SEBI to raise
the quota for small investors from 25 to 35 per cent and reduce
that of institutions from 60 to 50 per cent, makes eminent sense.
If institutions cannot claim a majority of the shares to be issued,
other applicants get empowered as participants in the competition
to bid the average (modal) price up.
Simultaneously, SEBI has also redefined 'small
retail investor' from someone applying for no more than 1,000 shares
(whatever the price) to someone investing no more than Rs 50,000
(whatever the number of shares). This should prevent high net worth
players from masquerading as small investors, thus freeing up even
more shares for the category of 'small retail investors'. This could
boost competition, for this is the category with the largest number
of discrete bidders, the sort who do not even know what their neighbours
are bidding.
Another laudable step is to reduce the listing
gap from 15 to six days from the date of issue closure. The price
at which a share makes its debut is always watched closely, and
the closer this debut happens to the date of the last noted price
(the date of the closure), the easier it is to make comparisons.
Of course, this is complicated by the fact that the promoters and
underwriters have a 'greenshoe' option, by which any sudden fall
or rise in the post-listing market price can be moderated by the
exercising of this mechanism (which alters the number of shares
listed).
Nonetheless, SEBI has done its bit to enhance
the efficiency of the IPO mechanism currently in vogue. Perhaps
the fraction mandated for institutional allotment could be lowered
even further (from 50 per cent), but that would require a mass revival
of the equity cult. Could that happen? Yes, if secondary market
sentiment stays buoyant, which, in turn, depends on the government's
disinvestment programme. A good start has been made by the Maruti
ipo, and the government must ensure that the momentum is not lost.
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