Another year rung into history, and another year ushered in with a mix of hope and fear. But if experts around the world are to be believed, we'll have less of the latter in 2004. America, looking smug after its 22-year-best growth of 8.2 per cent in the third quarter, is expected to grow by 4 per cent this year, up from last year's estimated growth of 2.6 per cent. Even Japan, which has been in a recession since the early 90s, seems set to turn the corner, with bullish economists in the country projecting a higher growth of 2.5 per cent. Most of Europe may not turn in a surprise performance like Japan, but the consensus is that growth will hold.

If the major economies of the world rebound, India should automatically get a fillip. But a big imponderable, from the point of domestic consumption, are the monsoons. At a time when everybody is talking about the services boom, it may seem old fashioned to talk about agriculture and manufacturing. But let's not forget that these two make up half our GDP. When farmers get to harvest a good season, the benefits inevitably spill over to a range of other industries, from consumer products to automotive to financial services. Part of the reason why most people are swooning over 2003 in nostalgia is the good rainfall it recorded. Take the BSE Sensex, for example. It had started inching up beginning April last year, but it turned into a rally only after July when rains had come in and it seemed certain that earnings across sectors would jump. Nobody can tell you with any certainty how the rains will go this year, but at the moment the mood is sanguine.

How much an American recovery takes away from foreign institutional investment into India stockmarkets is another imponderable. But my gut feel is that a lot of the investment-if not all-will stay. For one, the India growth story looks more credible than ever. The country continues to be a potentially big market for most marketers world wide, and the government realises-especially after the BJP's victory in assembly elections-that economic development and reforms are not something that only please the IMF; India's citizens care about them too. Hence, the sudden revival of disinvestment. ONGC, GAIL, and NTPC may all hit the IPO market this year.

This seems to imply that the ruling NDA administration is confident of returning to power when the nation goes to the polls this year. While the outcome of the elections will have a huge bearing on business and investor confidence, quite a few eyes would actually be looking west to the US. The world's most powerful nation also goes to the polls this year, and ahead of that the Republicans may want to widen their slim lead over rival Democrats by approving popular policies-among them, a tacit support to state governments banning offshoring of back office jobs to India. That could be a setback to the BPO and other infotech-enabled services that are burgeoning across the country.

Still, if all goes well, 2004 may actually turn out to be a better year than last. Car makers are looking at touching the 6.5-lakh figure this year. NCAER , an economic think tank, expects 7 lakh more two-wheelers to roll out this year, and so will another 3 lakh refrigerators and 10 lakh CTVs. Things may still go wrong. But for the moment let's get back to our champagne glasses. Happy 2004.

SANJOY NARAYAN