We
agree. John Grisham is more engrossing. But with so many public
offers of stock coming your way, do pick up the issue prospectuses,
and do them the justice of a proper read (a word that isn't always
spelt with S and M at two ends and K and I in the middle). Sure,
the activity might inspire more yawns than awe. And in any case,
your liability would be limited only to your investment.
Still, read. What a company reveals (or conceals)
should matter to you-as a prospective part-owner of the business.
Here's what you ought to look out for, in no particular order:
Management
"The most important
part of prospectus analysis", according to Gaurang Mehta, Associate
VP, IL&FS Investsmart. The promoters' credentials. Their names,
familiar or not, their qualifications, experience, performance record
down the years-and critically, credibility. Do your verification,
even of the big established companies, advises Prithvi Haldea, MD,
Prime Database. Check out the company's transactions, its record
of shareholder rewards.
Examine the shareholding pattern. Would an
offer-effected change in this make a management difference? Be wary
of a huge promoter stake, especially if the company has no institutional
interest, and of any pre-issue allotment made to promoters at attractive
prices (such details are listed in the prospectus). The best time
to hold management accountable is before you get in. So look hard.
What They Say And What They Mean |
To begin with, an approval of
an IPO by SEBI doesn't amount to an endorsement. It just means
the IPO process meets regulatory standards. As for the offer
document, reach for your sceptic gun each time you see 'plan',
'hope', 'anticipate', 'believe', 'estimate', 'expect', 'intend'
and suchlike. Even sentences may need to be re-read. Some
examples.
» 'The
cost of the project including Working Capital Requirements
and means of finance has not been appraised by any bank/financial
institution and are based on the Company's own estimates.'
Rather than their having financial wizards aboard, banks may
have chosen to stay away.
» 'The
management of the Company believes in change with the time.
This philosophy of the management has been proved till date
and the Company has performed even in the slow down of economy
by increase in the total turnover.' The company changes its
business activities frequently, to enter 'in' markets. It
shores itself up through 'other income' of the non-operational
kind.
» 'The
market for the agro industry and its products is highly competitive
and the Company shall be exposed to competition from existing
as well as new entrants.' Be prepared for market share erosion.
» 'The
company has several associate companies engaged in investment
activities. The company carries on investment activities through
these companies.' The company could be left holding the can
if they mess up.
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Financials
What you count on for returns. Regardless of
the data available, subject the financial statements to fine scrutiny.
"Basically, there are two types of IPOs-one from listed companies,
where the background, particulars, past history, financials etcetera
are known, and second types, where the background and other details
are not known," says Ashish Shah, VP (Primary Markets), Parag
Parikh Financial Advisory Services, "Stay away from the latter."
Of course, there are numbers and there are
numbers. Some talk, others don't. Some indicate consistency, others
expose blips. Does the purported business activity actually account
for most revenues? Look at revenue and profit growth carefully.
Has there been a sudden quarterly jump leading up to the IPO? Why?
What happened the previous year? Has some accounting trick been
used? "The financial performance of most companies suddenly
improves in the year preceding their issues," cautions Haldea,
"However, many would have resorted to window dressing including
showing a huge 'other income'." Don't be misled.
Purpose Of The Issue
It must be clear. Why does the company need
the money? This must be coherent. Is it a new venture? Working capital,
by the way, can be got cheaply from banks. Check if the company
or any other group entity has had a previous issue (the prospectus
has it) and verify whether the proceeds were used as per the plan
then. The prospectus lists such details under 'Promise Versus Performance'.
There have been sordid cases of public money collected for a 'software
services cell' ending up in treasury operations-to play the market.
Demand clarity of intent.
Lead Managers
They have a rub-off effect. Well-known investment
banks are expected to be circumspect about the quality of the issues
they manage, though this is more a brand-based expectation than
a statutory one. As J. Niranjan, Senior VP (Investment Banking),
I-sec, puts it, "The more established investment bankers will
not bring poor and doubtful IPOs to the market." But then,
the country's five top lead managers tend to bag four-fifths of
the issue business, so this criterion serves only as a basic filter
at best. This may be so, but Jagdish Master, Director, Enam Financial
Consultants, makes the reassuring claim that "lead managers
have become more cautious while accepting mandates now than before".
So the rub-off is real.
Be wary of a huge promoter stake, especially
if the company has no institutional interest |
Price
Deserves special attention during a boom. How
much a stock is worth paying for is a matter of valuation. The lazy
way out is to measure the issue price (or your bid) against a benchmark
such as a rival stock in the same business. When markets are booming,
though, this could lead you to overpay. Beware of the shady 'casino
craze' offer-makers who're greedy for any cash up for grabs. As
they say, a good company at a high price is a bad investment-unless
you're a diehard believer in the 'greater fool' theory.
"Do not expect even PSUs to underprice
their issues," says Haldea, "they too seem to be in the
race for maximising returns." Check for share-splits prior
to the issue (to make the offer price look low). Be conscious of
price versus value.
Litigations
These do matter. Legal entanglements are listed
in the prospectus. You could get a legal opinion on the better-known
cases. Even otherwise, it pays to assess the management's respect
for rules and regulations. Stock scam-tainted companies are avoidable.
"Companies that have not been compliant with the laws of the
land reflect a worrisome mindset, " says Haldea, "If you
find these of a material nature, avoid." Get law-savvy.
Other Risk Factors
The proverbial 'fine print'. Though some of
these are not spelt out in as many words, a thoughtful read would
alert you to the possible downsides. Here's a sample of what you
could encounter: 'The Company doesn't have any statutory clearances
and approvals for implementing the proposed project, whereas this
kind of project requires various statutory clearances and approvals
that approximately take more than a year for completion. Further,
any delay or failure in obtaining the necessary regulatory approvals
for the commercial launch of these products may adversely affect
the future profitability of the Company.' Sounds benign? Or worrisome?
It hardly sounds earth-cratering, given the scarier scenarios you
may have pictured or read about. Then again, such total dependence...
anyhow, it's your call.
But remember, human behavioural studies have
shown time and again that people tend to err on the side of optimism.
In making mental probability estimates of particularly devastating
outcomes, they almost always miscalculate, and grossly too. Maintain
your balance of reason.
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