Two
sets of facts and opinions are being widely reported and debated
today: one emphasising the feel-good factor, and the other abysmal
poverty levels. Some of these facts can be synthesised to illustrate
how India's growing global financial assets could, if used innovatively,
lead to a virtuous cycle of investment in underinvested areas such
as irrigation, agriculture, social security and health services,
reducing poverty for vast numbers, while simultaneously prodding
growth rates, and become mutually reinforcing.
India's acknowledged foreign exchange reserves
are now close to $105 billion, and growing. As of now, RBI data
shows that the average returns on those reserves is an annual 2
per cent. Given that the rupee is appreciating against the dollar
at a higher rate than this, there are no effective rupee earnings
on the reserves. A good proposal, then, would be to redeploy some
of the money-say, $20 billion, less than a fifth of the reserves-from
low-paying foreign (mainly US) securities, to investments in India's
infrastructure development.
That could be done via the mechanism of a special
purpose vehicle (SPV), with subsidiaries to direct investment towards
specific projects prioritised on the basis of the country's needs
that private participation and budgetary allocations are proving
inadequate in meeting. For example, irrigation, primary education,
rural roads and healthcare.
The SPV and its subsidiaries would be enabled to make a mix of equity
and debt investments in infrastructure projects at zero-interest-equivalent
to the current returns on India's reserves. With such low-cost financing,
output costs would be considerably lower and more manageable than
in many current projects (the Dabhol Power Project had prohibitive
costs). Uneconomic costs deter demand.
Together with investments in ports, power and
highways, resource mobilisation of such magnitude could drive up
and sustain growth rates in a multitude of sectors through the multiplier
effect, even as the infrastructural constraints on India's competitiveness
are eased.
Let us take another restructuring suggestion
from the corporate world. The market capitalisation of just the
public sector oil companies is about Rs 227,830 crore. By a rough
guess, the overall market value of the government's holding in the
public sector-as well as departmental undertakings capable of corporatisation
such as the Railways-could broadly be a three to four multiple of
the oil psus' market cap. Meanwhile, government debt to the banking
sector is estimated at close to Rs 600,000 crore, even as credit
diversion to the in-deficit government continues as a result of
the 'risk aversion' of banks that inclines them to government securities
instead of commercial lending.
Now, policy guidelines have been issued to
encourage banks to increase exposure to equity. Public sector equity
divestment is on, too. What's needed now is a jump in scale. For
instance, if the government were to sell Rs 100,000 crore of its
PSU equity holdings to the banks and retire its debt to them, and
banks in turn lend Rs 100,000 crore to retail investors for acquisition
of PSU equity, a structural debt-equity swap would take place. The
shareholding would shift from the government's hands to the public's
hand. The banks' lending would move from the government to retail
investors; Rs 100,000 crore translates into Rs 1 lakh each over
10 million income tax assessees.
Fiscal prudence through such debt reduction
would produce interest savings that could be used for poverty alleviation.
Another corporate suggestion: perhaps the government budget should
start reporting both assets and liabilities.
To conclude, if incremental fiscal changes
in India have made such a difference already, what might be the
result of some dynamic policy intervention?
Sanjiwan Sahni is a Delhi-based
management and economic consultant
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