Greed
and fear are often held up as the two main emotions of the stockmarket.
In testy times, these get magnified-making non-participants wonder
whether market participants need what youngsters call a 'chill-pill'.
For now, a return to the balance of reason
would do just fine. Take corporate India's performance. The fourth
quarter of 2003-04 has seen a surge-of around 47 per cent, year-on-year,
by one estimate-in aggregate net profit for a large swathe of listed
companies. Enhanced cost-consciousness, traced all the way back
to the last big recessionary phase, has certainly helped matters
on the efficiency front. But the big story is the topline buoyancy
gained over the last year or so.
The G-word, growth, is back. So is talk of
investment in new capacities. With business looking up, corporate
optimism has gone on the ascendant. It is in the air. And it has
filtered through to anyone who keeps even vaguely in touch with
corporate success. India doesn't just boast of a trio of billion-dollar
software exporters in the form of TCS, Infosys and Wipro, it even
has its first billion-dollar-profit-maker in Reliance. To those
who remember Microsoft as a billion-dollar firm, that packs quite
some bite...
...and somebody had to go spoil it all by spooking
stockmarket participants with this statistical device called the
'exit poll'.
The funny part is that they actually got spooked.
Not that the device is an old Halloween-style trick every grown-up
should see through (that's a separate debate). Instead, their fear
reveals a poor appreciation of the primary point of economic reforms-to
free business of the vagaries of politics. To turn profit into a
function of market need fulfilment, that is, rather than a function
of cosiness with legislative authority. To allow law-abiding citizens
to choose how they make their living, untangled by red tape and
undaunted by stick-wielders.
If freedom is what corporate India operates
under, why should most punters be so nervous about the outcome of
the ongoing elections to the 14th Lok Sabha? Is Indian business
performance really so fragile?
A moment's reflection would, of course, throw
up much to chew on. As some of the talking heads on television have
said, re-said, iterated and reiterated, the barometer of India's
transition from a semi-command to a market economy is the progress
being made on privatisation of public sector units (PSUs). This,
they worry, could be jeopardised by a decline in parliamentary commitment
to the process.
That privatisation should be the be-all and
end-all of reforms is, in itself, a case of myopia-and even if you
operate on this view, there's little reason to equate a process
reformulation with a complete process reversal.
That corporate India's business prospects should
be vulnerable to political shifts is, worse, a case of brushing
aside the reforms the country has undertaken over the past two decades.
And here too, a change in the agents of governance would not be
the equivalent of some violent overthrow of Capitalism. So why panic?
Stability? The Indian Constitution remains
the same, growth is perky, competition is high and the country is
closer than ever to a broad nationwide consensus on the direction
of reforms-towards market freedom. And gently so, with minimal shocks
and democratic approval. This is stability. The stability that the
world's other emerging markets envy so.
There are worries, for sure, and grave ones
too. But these relate to issues of stability more fundamental than
the sort stock traders have been jerking their knees to. Monsoon-dependence,
for instance, continues to haunt economy watchers, especially the
few who get sweaty over the fisc. Those need redressal. For now,
though, greed and fear need to be disentangled from the exercising
of free choice at polling booths.
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