Let's get one thing straight. No one can really time the market over and over again. It happens once, twice, thrice, and is still partly plain dumb luck. You can't keep buying the lows, selling the highs and partying with the profits. The sensible thing for investors to do, then, is to pick a handful of stocks that look good for the next five years, and stick with them.

Sure, there's no sure-fire long-term investment strategy either. As they say, a trading session is a long time in the business of investing. If stock prospects change day to day, say some sceptics, imagine what happens over half a decade. The flaw in taking this thinking too far is that it ignores the evening-out effect of longer time spans. Day-to-day trades tend to react to daily information, but averaged out over the months and years, a stock's movement is seen to respond to business issues of larger importance: the company's broad market strategy, for example, or even a slowly-transforming operating context.

Anyhow, here are five picks for the next five years:

MTNL

Here's a PSU stock that Jayesh Shah, Head (Research), LKP Shares and Securities, recommends as a good long horizon bet. Credit the potential triggers that could shoot it up. One, of course, is the metro telecom giant's likely merger with its non-metro counterpart, BSNL. If not a merger, then privatisation; yes, despite the noises being made by sections of the UPA government. Sooner or later, you can bet on economic logic overtaking rhetoric, and the question of how MTNL is to be turned competitive-and it is still to face the full brunt of competition-will have to be addressed squarely. Its net profit fell from Rs 1,540 crore in 2000-01 to Rs 877 crore in 2002-03, before recovering to Rs 1,278 crore in 2003-04. The company's valuation has fallen dramatically; MTNL today has a p-e ratio of 6.2, which is very low given the potential it has. How this is to be unlocked is the issue; either way, expect long-term gains. While the potential upside is good, the downside is limited by the high dividend yield. Go for it.

NICHOLAS PIRAMAL

This Rs 1,289-crore pharma company, which has just struck a deal with the French firm Laboratories Pierre Fabre to turn aggressive in the high-decibel skincare arena, enjoys the attention of many fund managers as a long-term play. It is, for one, a tempting takeover target for any foreign pharma player trying to gain quick entry to a market that's difficult to figure out. In itself, Nicholas Piramal is quite merger-happy, and having taken the inorganic route to size, snapping up smaller firms (some of them local arms of MNCs), it has demonstrated rare operational flexibility. It undertakes custom manufacture for MNCs. It sells several foreign brands under domestic licence, and its marketing model is also interesting-operating as it does an eclectic mix of traditional pharma and an FMCG apparatus. All in all, a company for the world to watch.

HINDUSTAN LEVER

The FMCG sector may be down, but is it out? Hindustan Lever Limited (HLL) has been under some pressure these past few years, but analysts are still betting on it as a good five-year investment. It has had to suffer urban brand 'downtrading' even as rural consumption stagnated. A reversal of both these, with renewed brand vigour (raising tangible and intangible value perceptions) accompanied by wider income growth (rural markets are already deeply penetrated), could shift the company back into topline-pushing mode. This is critical, since it is already quite tight on costs now. Any increase in interest rates could also alter the household spending patterns back in favour of FMCGs (over loan payments on gizmos and so on). Overall, however, growth depends on how concerted its marketing aggression is.

GAIL

GAIL, the pipeline player, handles the transmission, processing, distribution and marketing of natural gas (and everything with it). Its well-entrenched 4,000-km pipeline network assures it a monopoly in gas carriage-demand for which is projected to soar. Private players will need its services. Apart from being a direct energy source, gas goes into such products as urea, and GAIL monopolises supplies for this vital agri-input. The company itself has also made a petrochemical foray as part of a forward integration plan.

The company's financial position is strong. It boasts a debt-equity ratio of 0.32, and an impressive 25.87 per cent return on equity. But if its market cap has nearly tripled since June 2002, it could perhaps be on account of the potentially vital role a trans-subcontinental pipeline could play in securing India's future energy needs.

LIC Housing Finance Company

The second largest housing company in the country, promoted by the Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), has turned in a consistent performance since its inception in 1989. It has nearly a fifth of the market, and boasts the country's widest network of 112 offices. It has acquired the Rs 60-crore loan portfolio of Gujarat Lease Finance, which makes it a dominant player in this high-demand state. Also, the company is diversifying into estate development and old-age homes.

The stock has become an FII favourite of late, their holding having shot up. It also plans to raise $45 million through Global Depository Receipts soon. With the housing finance outlook as robust as ever, it's a good long-range pick.