First off, there's recent history. Since 1995, India's Finance Ministers have made a habit of coming good with their second Budget.

There's the case of the incumbent Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram himself. His first Budget 1995-96 was good in parts, but largely raw and amateurish; his second, 1996-97, was a masterpiece, fully worthy of the appellation 'Dream' used to describe it. Then, there's that of former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha. His second Budget 1999-2000 was quite a dream too.

Still, it isn't just history that convinces this writer that Budget 2005 will be well worth the wait. Nor is it the assorted opinions of economists and industrialists, although there would appear to be a growing belief among the two constituencies that 2005 will be it. "Wait for next Budget," says Subir Gokarn. "That will be a real blockbuster." "I expect next February's Budget to be more progressive," adds Saroj K Poddar, Chairman, Poddar Heritage Enterprises. Then, for good measure, "This is an interim Budget all over again."

Time and again, in the course of Chidambaram's 110-minute speech, it became evident that the man was just easing his pressure on the pedal some, holding back some of the horses.

Time and, then, time again, he would present the roadmap of things to come, only to hold back on the tar and bitumen. One reason for this could be that Chidambaram and his team simply didn't have the time (they had all of 46 days to prepare the Budget) to cross the Ts and dot the Is.

Another reason, and a more significant one in this writer's opinion, could be that the man did not want to raise expectations. After all, one quarter of the financial year is over and by the time Parliament passes the Finance Bill, another would have elapsed. Six months is inadequate time to fulfill promises, not when successive Finance Ministers since Manmohan Singh (the current Prime Minister held the post between 1991 and 1996) have plucked much of the low hanging fruit: Chidambaram would have to get into structural reform to make a difference and this obviously isn't the best time to do so. Not when he is still getting to know his cabinet colleagues, the various parties they belong to, and the respective ideologies. And not when he isn't very sure of just how reformist the new Left is.

It is clear from the Finance Minister's speech that a complete overhaul of ministries, departments, and projects is on the cards. The Planning Commission (now headed by Montek Singh Ahluwalia) has been asked to review and reorient the expenditures of the various ministries in consonance with the spirit of the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP). And these suggestions are likely to be incorporated in the next Budget. More importantly, by asking government think-tank, the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, to prepare a paper on better targeting of subsidies, Chidambaram has signaled his intent to rid the government of special interest groups that have hijacked subsidies not meant for them.

If there is one area where big bang reforms are still possible, it is in the area of taxation. Chidambaram is waiting for the Kelkar Task Force, which is reviewing the earlier Kelkar Committee Report in the light of feedback received, to submit its findings. "You cannot do big bang tax reforms without the time to consider the implications," says Chidambaram. "I think we will have to wait till another day (for tax reforms)." That day could well be February 28, 2005.

There are other indications in Budget 2004 of the coming blockbuster in 2005. One such is the nation-wide implementation of the Value Added Tax regime by April 2005, "a move that will revolutionise the whole tax regime by making India a single common market," according to Siddhartha Roy, Chief Economist, Tata Group. Chidambaram's promises to eventually bring down customs tariffs to match those of countries that are part of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and remove all duties on information technology products by April 1, 2005 should also be seen in this light.

Now, what would you term a Budget that does away with exemptions on both direct and indirect taxes, reduces import tariffs to ASEAN levels, brings more services under the tax net, implements a genuine vat regime, and re-targets subsidies at poor families? We'd like to call it blockbuster. Just consider Budget 2004 a warm-up exercise.

-By Ashish Gupta

Vacancy

P. Chidambaram announced the creation of an Investment Commission that will be headed by an eminent person. Later, in an interview to this magazine he said this person would definitely not be a bureaucrat. Here's a speculative list of contenders (this magazine's own) with their chances.

N.R. NARAYANA MURTHY

The Chairman and Chief Mentor of Infosys has global stature and Chairman of Investment Commission fits in very well with the larger role that is a natural career progression for him.
Chances: High

C.K. PRAHALAD

The management guru has become more India-focussed in recent years. However, unlike Murthy, his appeal is restricted to the American market.

Chances: Medium

SAM PITRODA

With the Congress back in power, albeit in a coalition, the one-time advisor to Rajiv Gandhi may well land this plum assignment. In all fairness: Murthy and Prahalad have greater reach.
Chances: Low

A DARK HORSE
Politics and politicians work in strange ways their miracles to perform and there is a high probability that Chidambaram names someone who is not on this magazine's radar to the post.
Chances: High

There Goes The Neighbourhood
Leopards on the prowl in Mumbai's national park have wreaked havoc on real estate prices.

Spot rates: They're down in Mumbai's suburbs

They might warn you about rising interest rates and other economic premises responsible for dampening real estate prices, but few brokers in suburban Mumbai-as well as property buyers-would have factored in the fear of the wild. In June alone, some 10 people have fallen prey to attacks by leopards on the periphery of the city's 103 sq km national park. And that's also rather discomfortingly brought to light that Mumbai is only one of two cities in the world to have a reserve bang in the middle of the metro (Nairobi is the other).

Real estate brokers reveal that prices of apartments are down 10-20 percent depending on the area's proximity to the forest. "There are cases where people are offering 50 per cent discounts, but none is buying. Rentals are completely out. Some brokers have actually shifted," says a local real estate agent. The Eastern side comprising the plush suburb of Powai where the Hiranandani and K. Raheja construction groups have massive interests has been particularly hard-hit. Surendra Hiranandani, MD, Hiranandani Constructions, rubbishes hints of a slowdown. "We are not near the boundary wall." K. Raheja officials were unavailable for comment. As were the leopards.

-Priya Srinivasan

Viewer Knows Best?
Zee TV is inviting viewer feedback to its stories and plots.

All ears: New solution to old gripes

Fed up with what's being dished out on TV? Or, to put it more precisely, fed up with what's being dished out on Zee TV? Well, the programming think-tank at the Subhash Chandra-owned channel claims to have found a solution to your gripes: A new show that allows you to decide whether a story idea deserves to graduate into a full-fledged show or not. Kahiye To..., the interactive show which went on air on July 11, gives viewers the opportunity to voice their opinions via SMS. Ashwini Yardi, Head of Programming, Zee TV, feels that since viewers will be happy to be provided this opportunity to have a say in the programming.

Of course, it's unlikely this one show will be good enough to turn around Zee's flagging fortunes. After all, not one of Zee's offerings currently feature among the Top 50. Yardi argues that if the other channels (Star TV in the main) are doing well, it's because of the saas-bahu soaps; Zee on the other hand prefers to focus on strong women characters, for which it has a loyal viewer base (Astitva, which does portray an independent woman character, is Zee's frontrunner). But then faithful viewership is proving to be one thing, rating points quite another.

-Priyanka Sangani