|
Reforming India: (R to L) PM Manmohan Singh,
FM P. Chidambaram and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman M.S.
Ahluwalia |
A
story is doing the rounds of South Block about how the contentious
Press Note 18 came to be scrapped. After waiting for months for
the relevant notification to come from the commerce ministry, Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh wrote a terse letter to Commerce Minister
Kamal Nath stating that he would be making the announcement at CII's
Partnership Summit 2005 in Kolkata, whether the notification was
issued or not.
He did exactly that on January 12, 2005-announcing
his government's decision to "do away with the provisions of
Press Note 18 for all future joint ventures with foreign partners".
Singh added that Nath would make a detailed announcement later in
the day.
That's Manmohan Singh for you. The 72-year-old
economist from Nuffield College, Oxford, and India's 14th pm, is
a man in a hurry. He maintains a punishing 13-hour daily schedule-8.30
a.m. in the morning to 9.30 p.m.-with an hour-long break in between,
seven days a week. Singh's agenda: sustained growth with equity
and social justice. He has repeatedly stressed at various fora that
"Growth is not an end itself, but a means to generate employment,
banish poverty, hunger and homelessness, and improve the standard
of living of the mass of the people."
WHAT THEY HAVE WROUGHT |
Tax
Imposing VAT. Reducing tariffs. Introducing tonnage tax in shipping.
Notifying rules for Fiscal Responsibility and Management Act
Infrastructure
Allocating Rs 1,72,000 crore for roads. Privatising airports.
Creating more special economic zones. Pushing Open Skies policy
FDI
Amending Press Note 18. Increasing FDI ceiling in aviation to
49%. Creating the Investment Commission headed by Ratan Tata
Capital Market
Abolishing long-term capital gains tax on equities. Reducing
short-term capital gains tax to 5%
Trade
Introducing Ordinance on WTO-compatible patents. Including services
in Foreign Trade Policy 2004-08. Strengthening the Look East
policy
Disinvestment
Adopting the IPO route for divesting government stake
Banking
Encouraging public sector banks to merge. Allowing foreign banks
holding stakes in Indian banks to exercise voting rights in
keeping with their stake. Increasing FDI ceiling in private
Indian banks to 74%. Restructuring IDBI |
The pm regularly invites Left leaders-his biggest
critics and also, ironically, his government's life support system-for
extended breakfast meetings to convince them of the need for more
reforms. The Left parties, caught between their ideological opposition
to reforms and their political compulsion of keeping the NDA (the
previous National Democratic Alliance government led by the BJP)
out of power, have allowed themselves to be convinced by the government's
sleight of hand. Mostly (see If You Can't Fight 'em, Flank 'em).
The 5 per cent disinvestment of government equity in National Thermal
Power Corporation is clearly just the first of more such examples.
The interest rate on Employees Provident Fund has been cut from
9.5 to 8.5 per cent despite strong opposition from unions; private
airlines can fly on international routes; and private players can
enter the hitherto sacrosanct pension fund business (see What They
Have Wrought).
Says Andrew Holland, Vice President of investment
bank DSP Merrill Lynch: "The message from the UPA government
is clear: Reforms are on course, though maybe not at a pace that
foreign investors would have liked. But there are the compulsions
of coalition politics." (See Where They Messed Up.)
Bolstering the UPA government's reformist image
is the reassuring presence of 59-year-old fm Palaniappan Chidambaram.
His first Budget under Singh only reinforced his credentials. Surjit
Bhalla, Managing Director of Oxus Fund Management, points out that
he maintained his "reformist tag" despite the pulls and
pressures of the alliance partners and the Common Minimum Programme.
SINGH'S ECONOMIC
A TEAM |
P.
Chidambaram, Finance Minister. A top-notch lawyer and
a reformer at heart, he will be the lead author of another (dream?)
Budget in a few weeks
Montek
Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission.
He was Finance Secretary in the P.V. Narasimha Rao government
and today is Singh's pointman for economic reforms
C.
Rangarajan, Chairman, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory
Council. Former Governor of RBI and the ideas man for the
Manmohan Singh government
Y.
Venugopal Reddy, Governor, Reserve Bank of India. Singh's
former colleague in the finance ministry, he enjoys the Prime
Minister's complete confidence on monetary matters
Rakesh
Mohan,
Secretary, Economic Affairs.
One of the key input men for P. Chidambaram's next Budget
(2005-06)
Mani
Shankar Aiyar, Petroleum & Natural Gas and Panchayati
Raj Minister. An outspoken Nehru-Gandhi loyalist, he has revolutionised
the concept of oil diplomacy in India
Dayanidhi
Maran, Communications & Information Technology
Minister. The young DMK leader is taking the country's IT
and communication revolution forward
Praful
Patel, Civil Aviation Minister. He has allowed private
carriers to fly beyond West Asia and is in the process of
signing an open skies agreement with the US
Sharad
Pawar, Agriculture, Food & Civil Supplies Minister.
He is an old ally who supported Singh's cause and stood up
for him even during Narasimha Rao's days
|
Chidambaram has brought a host of new services
under the tax net-expanding the tax base and reducing the distortions
in the tax structure-and reiterated the government's resolve to
increase foreign direct investment (FDI) limits in insurance, aviation
and telecom from their present levels of 26, 40 and 49 per cent
respectively, to 49, 49 and 74 per cent. Already, FDI of up to 49
per cent is allowed in aviation; the rest, hopefully, will follow.
But the Harvard-educated lawyer would probably
consider the proposed introduction of the state-level value-added
tax (vat) from April 1, 2005, as the icing on the cake. Remember,
five attempts by previous governments had resulted in failure. Says
S. Madhavan, Executive Director, PricewaterhouseCoopers: "The
introduction of a state-level vat will be an important step in the
final integration of a unified vat-a common goods and services tax-which
is the international practice."
Chidambaram can also think out of the box when
necessary. When the inflation rate touched 7.5 per cent for the
week ended July 31, 2004, the highest level in the last couple of
years, he sought the advice of Saumitra Chaudhuri, Economic Advisor
at credit rating agency ICRA and, later, a member of the pm's Economic
Advisory Council, and immediately slashed duties on steel, edible
oil, petroleum products and sugar. Today, the inflation rate is
a more benign 5.7 per cent.
Completing the reformist Holy Trinity is the
61-year-old Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh
Ahluwalia, another member of the pm's 1991 economic team. Ahluwalia's
omniscience in matters economic has brought him into the Left's
line of fire-remember the controversy over the inclusion of World
Bank members in various Planning Commission committees? The finance
ministry is also unhappy over his proposal to use the country's
$130-billion-odd (Rs 5,85,000 crore) foreign exchange kitty to finance
infrastructure projects. But there is no denying that he is the
pm's Man Friday in the UPA government.
Having technocrats in charge of the economy
has another advantage: They don't play politics with development.
The Manmohan Singh government has cleared Rs 1,72,000 crore for
the completion of the National Highways Development Project, the
signature project of the previous NDA regime, over the next seven
years. This includes the Phase III upgrade of 10,000 km of existing
national highways into four/six lanes and Phase IV development of
6,396 km of national highways in the north-eastern states.
And now, with C. Rangarajan coming aboard as
Chairman of the five-member pm's Economic Advisory Council, and
Rakesh Mohan back in the finance ministry as Secretary, Department
of Economic Affairs, the pm's Dream Team is ready (see Singh's Economic
A Team). We are just waiting for the next dream Budget.
IF YOU CAN'T FIGHT 'EM, FLANK 'EM |
DISINVESTMENT
No privatisation of profit-making PSUs, the Left parties dictated.
Yes comrades, said the Prime Minister, but found a way around
this problem. Since the sale of up to 49 per cent stake in any
PSU would not amount to privatisation, FM P. Chidambaram went
ahead and budgeted for Rs 4,000 crore as disinvestment proceeds.
The government followed this up by selling a 5 per cent stake
in National Thermal Power Corporation for Rs 2,700 crore. On
the block are also small stakes in Air-India, Maruti and Bharat
Heavy Electricals Limited, among others.
LABOUR REFORMS
It wasn't just the Left; some other UPA constituents, like
Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal and Ram Vilas Paswan's
Lok Jan Shakti Party, were also not willing to budge an inch
on labour reforms. The way out? Creation of more special economic
zones (SEZs), where the country's restrictive labour laws
don't apply. State governments were told to liberalise local
statutes and Development Commissioners were empowered to take
all decisions. The SEZ policy is in place, but the long-pending
SEZ Act, which provides incentives and simplifies procedures,
will take time: It has been referred to the group of ministers.
PRESS NOTE 18
Successive governments had tried to scrap, or at least
modify, Press Note 18 for some time now. But a strong domestic
industry lobby, the Left and sundry other politicians had
successfully scuttled the move every time it came up. Then,
the Prime Minister suddenly announced the virtual scrapping
of the note at CII's Partnership Summit in Kolkata on January
12, 2005. Henceforth, foreign companies will require a no-objection
certificate (NOC) from their Indian partners only if they
enter the same line of business as their local joint venture.
No NOC will be required if they wish to enter any allied businesses.
BANKING REFORMS
The government wanted to allow foreign banks to hold up
to 74 per cent stake in Indian private banks, up from the
current ceiling of 49 per cent. Nothing doing, said the Left
(who else?). The two sides met... and worked out a compromise.
Foreign banks still can't buy 74 per cent stake in their domestic
counterparts, but can increase their shareholding by an incremental
10 per cent per year up to an upper limit of 74 per cent.
Now that's a creeping victory for the reformers.
|
|
WHERE THEY MESSED UP
In a bid to provide growth with social justice,
the UPA government may have overdone the equity bid. |
»
2 per cent education cess on all taxes: Not
only will it impose an additional tax burden on everyone, it
will also lead to greater leakages in the absence of a proper
delivery system
» Job
reservations in the private sector: It is not (yet) mandatory,
but it can create distortions in the system, pulling the economy
back from its growth trajectory
» National
Employment Guarantee Scheme: Unless implemented properly,
Rs 44,000 crore could go down the drain annually
|
|