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AUGUST 14, 2005
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Redefining Consumer Finance
Jurg von Känel, a researcher at IBM's J. Watson Research Centre, and his colleagues are working on analytical software that would
simplify consumer finance
and make it more secure as well. An oxymoron? Känel doesn't think so.


Security Check
First, it was Mphasis. Then, the Karan Bahree sting operation by UK tabloid, The Sun. The bogey of data security appears to be rearing its ugly head in right earnest. How can the Indian call-centre industry address this challenge?
More Net Specials
Business Today,  July 31, 2005
 
 
PROFILE
The Pied Piper of Dalal Street
Investors are piggy-backing on his picks, and promoters queuing up to offer him shares, but trader, investor and of late venture capitalist Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says he's just doing what he knows best: Buying right, and holding tight.

Not interested," he grunts into the hand-held, before chucking it on to the cluttered desk in front of him. Reaching for the pack of 555 State Express, he throws the quick mandatory glance at the four stock-price flashing monitors in front of him, and swivels in a somewhat dramatic manner towards this writer. "That's one more promoter wanting to offer me his shares. Another one was here before you came." The irritation is still palpable.

The message from ace trader, investor-and of late venture capitalist-Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is loud and clear: Don't attempt to find me. Let me find your business, and let me decide whether it's investment-worthy or not. He knows a thing or two about how to go about that: Jhunjhunwala has been around on Dalal Street for the past two decades, starting as a small-time trader in 1984, with a ca degree in one pocket, and Rs 5,000 in another. Till 1990, he made most of his millions via speculation, but it's over the past four-five years that Jhunjhunwala's Midas touch as an investor has been on ample display. Pretty much everything he's touched-barring a few duds here and there-has turned to gold, prompting punters of all hues to piggy-back on his picks, and promoters to line up to offer him shares. Market estimates put his net worth in the Rs 1,500-2,000 crore region; others who've worked with the man reveal his net worth would have grown eight to 10 times since 2001-a period during which the benchmark Sensex has climbed by 150 per cent from the depths of sub-3,000 to close to 7,500.

THE JHUNJHUNWALA FACTFILE

ENTERED THE MARKET
In 1984, at age 25, with Rs 5,000 and a CA qualification

FIRST PUNT
Bought Tata Tea at Rs 45, sold at Rs 140 in six months

FIRST LONG-TERM CALL
Bought Tata Power at Rs 150, sold at Rs 1,200 after five years

INFLEXION POINT
Madhu Dandavate's 1990 budget. Everybody was bearish, expecting a socialist budget. RJ (and Dandavate) went the other way; made a killing

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
"Buy right, hold tight-exit in frenzies"

FAVOURITE EQUATION
Earnings per share X price-earnings ratio = price

MESSAGE TO PIGGY-BACKING INVESTORS
"You will get hurt very badly one day"

SWEARS BY
Independent thinking and greed, but only if it's long-term

LIKES TO BE KNOWN AS
A trader, an investor and a venture capitalist

FAVOURITE BUFFETTISM
Marketmen feeling "Undersexed in a harem" and "oversexed in a desert"

MOST LIKELY TO TELL YOU
"What you are buying is important, but more important is what value/price you are buying at"

Last fortnight, Jhunjhunwala had something more to chew on when-along with two other Mumbai brokers-he bought 10 per cent of it education and training company, Aptech. After the subsequent open offer to common shareholders, Jhunjhunwala could find himself in control of Aptech. But you won't catch him spending too much time attempting to manage the business. "I don't care about actively managing any business-there are enough people out there doing that. Yes, I can offer strategic thought and contribute to corporate governance, but I will always continue to be an active trader and investor."

In a fundamental way, Jhunjhunwala's acquisition of Aptech equity isn't much different from the long-term investments he's made by mopping up shares from the secondary market. At the heart of his strategy is buying at the right price, or the right value. And at the right opportunity. "Buy right, hold tight-and exit in frenzies," is the home-grown wisdom he swears by. That's why, for instance, he picked up the public sector Bharat Electronics in the Rs 18-20 range. His sell price: Rs 750. Value for Jhunjhunwala means buying into Titan at Rs 30, and watching it soar to Rs 500, accumulating Praj Industries at 100, which has now hit Rs 810, identifying Bilcare at Rs 108 and allowing it to run to Rs 519... the list is long and the appreciation heady (see The Jhunjhunwala Juggernaut Steams On). And the Aptech deal, though a buyout, fits well into the obsession with value and opportunity. His acquisition cost of Aptech shares works out to Rs 56 per share. The price at the time of writing had already crossed Rs 95. More important, of course, is the potential for longer-term, multi-bagging returns Jhunjhunwala sees in this training company: For one, the industry is a mature one, so no new players are expected at this stage. For another, a quarter of the country's population is under 25, providing a huge market for education and training. Also, Aptech has plenty of avenues to expand its portfolio, right from BPO to content, to testing, to international forays.

A few sceptics on Dalal Street view Jhunjhunwala as more of a caricature than a wannabe Warren Buffett (seen in picture)

Whilst Jhunjhunwala's stock picks are the more visible manifestations of his achievements, his larger success by far is forecasting the ongoing bull run at a time when few gave the Indian markets a chance of even crossing the 4,000 threshold. The defining moment was September 11, 2001. "Crisis makes you introspect," shrugs Jhunjhunwala. That bout of soul-searching resulted in the prediction of a long-term "structural and secular bull market". The conviction was triggered off by structural changes he saw in the Indian economy and the corporate sector, like the advent of second-generation reforms, and the ability of Indian companies to start turning on 20 per cent earnings growth quarter after quarter. "There's no doubt he's a visionary, and a great long-term strategist," gushes Diwan Rahul Nanda, Chairman & Director, Tops Security, in which Jhunjhunwala has picked up a 16 per cent stake.

Finding companies to invest in hardly seems to be a problem for today's Big Bull. Tops Security, for instance, which is still at least one-and-a-half-years away from an IPO, got his nod because he sees the security industry as a sunrise one, and has great faith in the ambitions and commitment of the management. Yet, as the market indices continue to head upward, there is a section of investment gurus and chart-gazers who feel the Sensex is entering overheated territory. The moot point, therefore: For how long can Jhujhunwala keep finding potential 10- and multi-baggers? The man's answer is predictably deadpan. "I see value every day," he mutters.

"There's no doubt Jhunjhunwala's a visionary and a great long-term strategist"
Diwan Rahul Nanda
Chairman & Director
Tops Security

At the heart of Jhunjhunwala's bullishness is the view that earnings growth of 20 per cent is quite possible for the next four-to-five years, and that the market at a current price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 13.5-on 2005-06 forward earnings-is actually lower than valuation at previous peaks. For instance, during the March 1992 Sensex peak of 4,285, the market P/E was at an absurd 69.5. Even in 2000, when the index briefly crossed 6,000, the P/E was in the 27-30 vicinity. Now for the clincher: If we assume a P/E of 28 for Sensex 2009, and if corporate earnings grow 20 per cent till then, the Sensex would have-hold your breath-hit a level of 26,476! And the man's dead serious. "I am bullish on the basis of facts and information that's publicly available. The problem with most of us is that we lack recognising what we have achieved. For instance, we have 10.8 per cent industrial growth in May-and everybody is questioning it! As Indians, why don't we instead try to see that this growth continues? We are not only growing, we are also creating institutions that will ensure this growth and accentuate it," thunders Jhunjhunwala.

Jhunjhunwala could easily be blinkered by his own bullishness, a situation thousands of investors who've lost fortunes in previous booms-turned-busts will never find themselves in. Inevitably, today's Big Bull finds himself being paralleled with past Street-heroes who subsequently fell from grace, perhaps victims of their own successes. Is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala going down the same road? "All I can say is 'ignorance is bliss', (to those who compare him)." His advice to punters who blindly latch on to everything he buys: "One day you will get hurt very badly." There are a few sceptics on Dalal Street-particularly a few attached to foreign brokerages-who look at him with amusement, more as a caricature than a wannabe Warren Buffett. The truth is he's neither. "Sure I have read a lot, but I firmly believe the first quality you need for success in the markets-and indeed success in life-is independent thinking," pontificates the investor who insists he still stays with his 75-year-old father (rather than the other way round). There are others who prefer to see him as a front for bigger fish, even alluding to the relationship between him and Amitabh Jhunjhunwala-they're first cousins-the pointman of Anil Ambani. "That's an insult to my intellect," he hisses. You have to agree: The man who foretold the India story-he calls it a once in a lifetime opportunity-surely deserves more credit.

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