Not
interested," he grunts into the hand-held, before chucking
it on to the cluttered desk in front of him. Reaching for the
pack of 555 State Express, he throws the quick mandatory glance
at the four stock-price flashing monitors in front of him, and
swivels in a somewhat dramatic manner towards this writer. "That's
one more promoter wanting to offer me his shares. Another one
was here before you came." The irritation is still palpable.
The message from ace trader, investor-and
of late venture capitalist-Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is loud and clear:
Don't attempt to find me. Let me find your business, and let me
decide whether it's investment-worthy or not. He knows a thing
or two about how to go about that: Jhunjhunwala has been around
on Dalal Street for the past two decades, starting as a small-time
trader in 1984, with a ca degree in one pocket, and Rs 5,000 in
another. Till 1990, he made most of his millions via speculation,
but it's over the past four-five years that Jhunjhunwala's Midas
touch as an investor has been on ample display. Pretty much everything
he's touched-barring a few duds here and there-has turned to gold,
prompting punters of all hues to piggy-back on his picks, and
promoters to line up to offer him shares. Market estimates put
his net worth in the Rs 1,500-2,000 crore region; others who've
worked with the man reveal his net worth would have grown eight
to 10 times since 2001-a period during which the benchmark Sensex
has climbed by 150 per cent from the depths of sub-3,000 to close
to 7,500.
THE JHUNJHUNWALA FACTFILE |
ENTERED THE MARKET
In 1984, at age 25, with Rs 5,000 and a CA qualification
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FIRST PUNT
Bought Tata Tea at Rs 45, sold at Rs 140 in six months
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FIRST LONG-TERM
CALL
Bought Tata Power at Rs 150, sold at Rs 1,200 after five
years
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INFLEXION POINT
Madhu Dandavate's 1990 budget. Everybody was bearish, expecting
a socialist budget. RJ (and Dandavate) went the other way;
made a killing
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INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
"Buy right, hold tight-exit in frenzies"
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FAVOURITE EQUATION
Earnings per share X price-earnings ratio = price
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MESSAGE TO PIGGY-BACKING
INVESTORS
"You will get hurt very badly one day"
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SWEARS BY
Independent thinking and greed, but only if it's long-term
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LIKES TO BE KNOWN
AS
A trader, an investor and a venture capitalist
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FAVOURITE BUFFETTISM
Marketmen feeling "Undersexed in a harem" and
"oversexed in a desert"
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MOST LIKELY TO
TELL YOU
"What you are buying is important, but more important
is what value/price you are buying at"
|
Last fortnight, Jhunjhunwala had something
more to chew on when-along with two other Mumbai brokers-he bought
10 per cent of it education and training company, Aptech. After
the subsequent open offer to common shareholders, Jhunjhunwala
could find himself in control of Aptech. But you won't catch him
spending too much time attempting to manage the business. "I
don't care about actively managing any business-there are enough
people out there doing that. Yes, I can offer strategic thought
and contribute to corporate governance, but I will always continue
to be an active trader and investor."
In a fundamental way, Jhunjhunwala's acquisition
of Aptech equity isn't much different from the long-term investments
he's made by mopping up shares from the secondary market. At the
heart of his strategy is buying at the right price, or the right
value. And at the right opportunity. "Buy right, hold tight-and
exit in frenzies," is the home-grown wisdom he swears by.
That's why, for instance, he picked up the public sector Bharat
Electronics in the Rs 18-20 range. His sell price: Rs 750. Value
for Jhunjhunwala means buying into Titan at Rs 30, and watching
it soar to Rs 500, accumulating Praj Industries at 100, which
has now hit Rs 810, identifying Bilcare at Rs 108 and allowing
it to run to Rs 519... the list is long and the appreciation heady
(see The Jhunjhunwala Juggernaut Steams On). And the Aptech deal,
though a buyout, fits well into the obsession with value and opportunity.
His acquisition cost of Aptech shares works out to Rs 56 per share.
The price at the time of writing had already crossed Rs 95. More
important, of course, is the potential for longer-term, multi-bagging
returns Jhunjhunwala sees in this training company: For one, the
industry is a mature one, so no new players are expected at this
stage. For another, a quarter of the country's population is under
25, providing a huge market for education and training. Also,
Aptech has plenty of avenues to expand its portfolio, right from
BPO to content, to testing, to international forays.
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A few sceptics on Dalal Street view Jhunjhunwala
as more of a caricature than a wannabe Warren Buffett (seen
in picture) |
Whilst Jhunjhunwala's stock picks are the
more visible manifestations of his achievements, his larger success
by far is forecasting the ongoing bull run at a time when few
gave the Indian markets a chance of even crossing the 4,000 threshold.
The defining moment was September 11, 2001. "Crisis makes
you introspect," shrugs Jhunjhunwala. That bout of soul-searching
resulted in the prediction of a long-term "structural and
secular bull market". The conviction was triggered off by
structural changes he saw in the Indian economy and the corporate
sector, like the advent of second-generation reforms, and the
ability of Indian companies to start turning on 20 per cent earnings
growth quarter after quarter. "There's no doubt he's a visionary,
and a great long-term strategist," gushes Diwan Rahul Nanda,
Chairman & Director, Tops Security, in which Jhunjhunwala
has picked up a 16 per cent stake.
Finding companies to invest in hardly seems
to be a problem for today's Big Bull. Tops Security, for instance,
which is still at least one-and-a-half-years away from an IPO,
got his nod because he sees the security industry as a sunrise
one, and has great faith in the ambitions and commitment of the
management. Yet, as the market indices continue to head upward,
there is a section of investment gurus and chart-gazers who feel
the Sensex is entering overheated territory. The moot point, therefore:
For how long can Jhujhunwala keep finding potential 10- and multi-baggers?
The man's answer is predictably deadpan. "I see value every
day," he mutters.
|
"There's no doubt Jhunjhunwala's
a visionary and a great long-term strategist"
Diwan Rahul Nanda
Chairman & Director
Tops Security |
At the heart of Jhunjhunwala's bullishness
is the view that earnings growth of 20 per cent is quite possible
for the next four-to-five years, and that the market at a current
price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 13.5-on 2005-06 forward earnings-is
actually lower than valuation at previous peaks. For instance,
during the March 1992 Sensex peak of 4,285, the market P/E was
at an absurd 69.5. Even in 2000, when the index briefly crossed
6,000, the P/E was in the 27-30 vicinity. Now for the clincher:
If we assume a P/E of 28 for Sensex 2009, and if corporate earnings
grow 20 per cent till then, the Sensex would have-hold your breath-hit
a level of 26,476! And the man's dead serious. "I am bullish
on the basis of facts and information that's publicly available.
The problem with most of us is that we lack recognising what we
have achieved. For instance, we have 10.8 per cent industrial
growth in May-and everybody is questioning it! As Indians, why
don't we instead try to see that this growth continues? We are
not only growing, we are also creating institutions that will
ensure this growth and accentuate it," thunders Jhunjhunwala.
Jhunjhunwala could easily be blinkered by
his own bullishness, a situation thousands of investors who've
lost fortunes in previous booms-turned-busts will never find themselves
in. Inevitably, today's Big Bull finds himself being paralleled
with past Street-heroes who subsequently fell from grace, perhaps
victims of their own successes. Is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala going down
the same road? "All I can say is 'ignorance is bliss', (to
those who compare him)." His advice to punters who blindly
latch on to everything he buys: "One day you will get hurt
very badly." There are a few sceptics on Dalal Street-particularly
a few attached to foreign brokerages-who look at him with amusement,
more as a caricature than a wannabe Warren Buffett. The truth
is he's neither. "Sure I have read a lot, but I firmly believe
the first quality you need for success in the markets-and indeed
success in life-is independent thinking," pontificates the
investor who insists he still stays with his 75-year-old father
(rather than the other way round). There are others who prefer
to see him as a front for bigger fish, even alluding to the relationship
between him and Amitabh Jhunjhunwala-they're first cousins-the
pointman of Anil Ambani. "That's an insult to my intellect,"
he hisses. You have to agree: The man who foretold the India story-he
calls it a once in a lifetime opportunity-surely deserves more
credit.
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