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OCTOBER 23, 2005
 Cover Story
 Editorial
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 Bookend
 Economy
 BT Special
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Retail Conundrum
The entry of foreign players, and FDI, could galvanise the retail sector and provide employment to thousands. Left parties, however, feel it would push small domestic players out of jobs. What is the real picture?


The Foreign Hand
Huge spikes and corrections in the BSE Sensex have lately come to be associated with the infusion and withdrawal of capital from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Are India's stock markets becoming over dependent on FIIs?
More Net Specials
Business Today,  October 9, 2005
 
 
Power Play
Money. Glory. And power. Just why everyone wants a piece of cricket in India.
The Fight Over Eyeball-Measures
Lever Gets Edgy
Slipping on SEZs?
...But 61 Others Should
Come up by 2007.

Even people who know Jagmohan Dalmiya, the patron-in-chief of the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), can be forgiven for forgetting that he inherited a reasonably large and profitable construction business at the age of 19. At 65, if there is one thing the wealthy Marwari from Kolkata is synonymous with, it is cricket. He has thrice been President of BCCI, which makes him, according to the organisation's rules, ineligible for any more terms, one reason why he got the organisation to create his current position-the creation of the post and his appointment to it are both being questioned in the courts- and he has served as President of the International Cricket Council (ICC). In the corridors of cricket, he is renowned for his marketing savvy that has helped the cause of the game across the world and benefited the boards of most cricket-playing nations. Dalmiya's desire to call the shots as far as cricket is concerned in India is not surprising: he was behind India's successful bid to host the 1987 World Cup (sponsored by Reliance), he made BCCI the richest cricket board in the world, and he understandably wants to continue to be in charge, irrespective of his designation. As patron-in-chief, for instance, it is he and not the president of BCCI who represents the board at ICC meetings. "Had BCCI been under the charge of politicians or bureaucrats, cricket's fate in India would have been no different from football's or hockey's," says Kishore Rungta, former treasurer of the board. "It is only thanks to Dalmiya's business acumen that Indian cricket has become profitable."

The problem is, others want a piece of the action. The reason: A combination of money, power and a little bit of glory. That's money as in the amount the BCCI earns, around Rs 400 crore a year now by some estimates (and set to increase steeply this year), a little less than $100 million (Rs 440 crore) and not a great deal in a country that boasted, at last count, some 63 companies that gross revenues in excess of $1 billion (Rs 4,400 crore) a year. Then, BCCI isn't a company. It is a "non-profit organisation", according to one member, and its membership is a restricted affair. Any state cricket association that has the wherewithal to stage an international match gets to vote-India's Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, who heads the Bihar Cricket Association, desperately wants a vote-and the heads of such associations and the president of BCCI vote to elect the five office bearers of BCCI. As this magazine goes to press, there are reports that BCCI will share, with its members, some of the money it has earned from cricket rights in 2004.

The BCCI chief's role in the ICC is like that of the only permanent member on the UN security council with a veto

Hard as it may seem to believe, cricket is the most popular game in only three of the world's 10 Test playing nations (that may have become four with England's recent Ashes win over Australia, although it is likely that football retains its premier spot in that country), India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. India alone accounts for around 75 per cent of the global viewership of cricket. Over the past five years, there has been a 1,000 per cent increase in the rates for cricket telecast rights in India. Controversies and court cases over BCCI's seemingly ad hoc way of awarding these rights abound, but over the next four years, the board is expected to earn at least $310 million (Rs 1,364 crore) from this. Then, there's team sponsorship (currently Rs 46 lakh a match, but the deal is to be renewed this year and BCCI expects to get at least 200 per cent more), title sponsorship (Rs 96 lakh a match), a share of profits of the ICC from the World Cup and Champions Trophy, and a share of income of state cricket associations. Finally, there's visibility (the BCCI president gets, arguably, more press than India's leader of the opposition), and the fact that in the global scheme of things, the BCCI chief's role in the ICC is akin to that of being the only permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with a veto.

That would explain the desire of India's Agriculture Minister and National Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar to become president of the board. Only, Dalmiya is having none of that and after a messy first attempt in late September, Pawar has retreated to try again towards the end of October (which is when the election to the top post of BCCI will likely happen). The funny thing is, it is no longer about cricket.


INSTAN TIP
The fortnight's burning question.

Q. Has India Inc.'s earnings' growth started to taper off?

Ye.. Ambreesh Baliga, Vice President, Karvy Stockbroking

Low advance tax payment in the current quarter indicates that earnings growth could have started to slow down. General inflation and cost pressures from the rising price of crude oil could be the reason for this.

No. Ajay Bagga, CEO, Grange Advisory

It is just a phobia. Companies have been able to minimise the impact of the rise in oil prices and the fundamentals (of corporate performance) are still intact. In fact, in sectors such as information technology, we expect earnings guidances to be raised. .

No, except for oil companies. Gagan Banga, Executive Director, Indiabulls Financial Services

We cannot consider advance tax payment an indicator because many companies have undertaken capacity expansion activities, thereby benefiting from tax concessions. Earnings will continue to grow in the 15-20 per cent range. .


The Fight Over Eyeball-Measures
TAM and MRUC go to war.

Contends that the sample size of households TAM covers is too small when decisions worth Rs 5,000 crore depend on it
/ Director/ LINTAS

In the red corner is Lynn De Souza, director (media Services), Lintas India, a media-planner often quoted in magazines such as this one, and the emerging voice of the Media Research Users Council (MRUC), a group of some 196 entities, some media organisations, others advertising agencies.

Counters that the number of people polled makes TAM's panel the largest in the world, and the households covered will go up soon
/ CEO/TAM

In the blue corner is L.V. Krishnan, CEO, TAM Media Research, the country's most respected audience measurement agency that works in association with (and consequently, should have the support of) the Indian Society of Advertisers (ISA), the Indian Broadcasting Federation (IBF) and the Advertising Agencies Association of India (AAAI).

At stake is the number of households TAM covers (4,800). That isn't enough, contends de Souza. Not when decisions worth Rs 5,000 crore (that's the value of advertising on television) have to be made on the basis of this research.

TAM's Krishnan counters that in terms of number of people polled (20,000 across the 4,800 households), his firm's panel is the largest in the world. And the number of households covered will soon increase to 10,300.

There is some overlap between the membership of MRUC and TAM's supporters (AAAI, ISA and IBF). "We are putting a question mark over our own decisions taken in the past by raising such objections," says Chintamani Rao, CEO, India TV, and an MRUC member. It promises to get interesting.


Lever Gets Edgy
Creative renaissance or desperate search for growth? You decide.

New Rules: Liril's racy ad (top) and Lux's we-swing-both-ways one

For a long time, Indian advertising's worst kept secret was the way Hindustan Lever Limited's ads were made. "They have rules," whispered some ad-men. "You have to show the product a certain number of times," whispered others. And although the company did try and do something different once in a while, like Lalitaji, the irritatingly-endearing (or endearingly-irritating) housewife who would lecture viewers about samajhdari (intelligence), its advertising remained by and large boring, and functional.

The past 12 months have seen this changing (and how!). First came Shabana Azmi vending CSR (corporate social responsibility) and civic sense, along with detergent, in an ad for Surf (use this and save two buckets of water a day, it said). Then came another tugging-at-Everyman's-civic-sense ad, of children cleaning up their filthy neighbourhood (Lifebuoy soap kept them free from infections). And the overtly sexual-ads for ice cream (it's not just Haagen-Dazs that can use sex to sell ice creams, the company seemed to be telling its critics) and toilet-soap Liril. Finally, just over a month ago, HLL did the unthinkable and put a man in an ad for a woman's soap (Shahrukh Khan, petals, Lux and lots of lovely leading Lux ladies, and, not to forget, a giant bath tub).

If there ever was a rule-book at Lever House, HLL's Mumbai HQ, it has been torn up and thrown out. After three years of declining sales, the company is seeing growth again and it is difficult to say what came first, the growth or the new advertising aggressiveness. All a Lever's spokesperson would say was, "Indian consumers have changed in character over the years-they are more youthful, modern, energetic and full of vitality. A brand communication is targeted to this new generation of Indians." Or it could simply be that the country's biggest advertiser (it spent Rs 834 crore on advertising and sales promotion in 2004) wants more bang for its buck. There is, after all, a limit to what economies of media planning and buying can do.

Nothing, it would appear, is taboo at HLL. And the company's just-over-a-year old Advanced Brand Communication (ABC) process seems to have taken its relationship with advertising agencies to a new level. At the core of this process are two ABC custodians, one from the agency and another from the company to whom HLL brand managers pitch briefs. The two may agree with the brand manager, offer some suggestions for incremental improvements, or choose to shred the brief (in which case the manager goes back to draft another), but nothing goes ahead without their approval. "With HLL, it is black and white. They either continue doing time-and-tested stuff or break truly new ground. And now they're pushing for cutting-edge stuff," says R. Balakrishnan (Balki), National Creative Director, Lowe India.

In its time, Liril's waterfall (a popular theme in the first few campaigns for the brand) may have provided an escape from drudgery for a housewife, but today's woman needs something else, indulgence, intimacy, mayhap a little kinkiness. "As an advertiser, HLL is alive to brand-led consumer sensibilities," says Santosh Desai, President, McCann Erickson. And so, adds Balki, "the ads tell you what the brand can do for you, and you decide what you want to do for yourself". Only, HLL no longer tells the agency what its advertising-rules say.


Slipping On SEZs?
India's most high-profile SEZ, in Navi Mumbai, runs into some trouble...

SKIL's Nikhil Gandhi: It looked so easy then

By the time this magazine hits the stands, the courts may have resolved an issue that could well derail the country's showpiece SEZ (special export zone) project, the 10,835-acre Navi Mumbai one, or they may have, as is more likely, pushed the hearing to another date.

The facts of the case are straightforward: bids for the project opened in January 2004; 10 bids, including those from the Reliance Group, Essar, and two international firms were received; the highest bidder was Nikhil Gandhi's SKIL (it bid a total of around Rs 4,400 crore); things looked to be on stream (a financial closure was achieved, a master plan drawn up and key lenders identified); then, in late September, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries picked up a 20 per cent equity stake in the Navi Mumbai Integrated SEZ (NMISEZ)-as SKIL has named the SEZ-for, if the buzz is to be believed, close to Rs 1,000 crore, and all hell broke loose.

Anik Consortium, a losing bidder, has filed a suit before the Mumbai High Court, alleging that Reliance has replaced SKIL as the leader of the consortium (This would flout the bid-agreement). That hasn't happened yet; according to information available with this magazine, SKIL and its affiliates still own 52 per cent of NMISEZ, the Maharashtra state-owned CIDCO, 26 per cent, the Reliance subsidiary, 20 per cent, and others 2 per cent; however, the project does require a substantial infusion of funds over three phases, at least Rs 13,000 crore and if Reliance should choose to bring in the money as equity in the future, and SKIL allows this, Anik's fears could well turn true.

The fate of the world's first privately-owned SEZ, thus, one that has already roped in some 500 organisations interested in setting up base there, and could fetch revenues of $3 billion (Rs 13,200 crore) a year for the consortium when all phases are developed in the next seven-and-a-half years (apart from being the centre of economic activity that will create jobs, generate wealth and make Indian exports competitive), hangs in balance.


...BUT 61 OTHERS SHOULD COME UP BY 2007.

Ringing in: Nokia's SEZ will host 200 of its vendors

Sezs are part of the economic fairy tale story that has taken china to where it is today. On November 1, the SEZ Act will be notified by India and it could well be the first line of a similar tale featuring India in a leading role. "We have cleared, in principle, 61 SEZs, and if all get implemented over the next two-three years, the investment will be to the order of Rs 60,000 crore," says Gopal K. Pillai, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The government expects SEZs to, apart from fuelling economic activity and exports, generate some 100,000 jobs over the next three-to-five years. One recent SEZ proposal cleared by the government is from Finnish phone major Nokia that is investing Rs 675 crore in an SEZ near Chennai that will host, apart from its own facility, those of 200 of its vendors. The very fact that the ministry cleared this proposal within a day shows how much it wants the SEZ concept to succeed.

 

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