Television has been credited with several things, and here's one more: it may be responsible for creating the market-segment known as tweens. Created here is used in the loose sense of the term. Tweens existed (as one would have expected them to) before the onset of the television age, the period soon after World War II (the late 1940s and 1950s). Howdy-Dowdy, the first ever television serial targeting tweens (or children) went on air in the us in 1947 (NBC). And when television started beaming programmes targeting tweens, marketers realised the merits of reaching out to them. In many ways, the evolution of tweens as a consumer category was television-led. There were other things that contributed to it, too, in the us: the economic boom following WW II, for one, and the baby-boom, which turned parents into benevolent money-machines.

Sixty years after WW II, the same phenomenon is being repeated in India. To be fair, the beginnings of the tween-boom in India can be traced back to the mid-1990s. The causative factors, however, remain the same. The emergence of niche television channels targeting tweens (in this case Cartoon Network that went on air in 1995), the arrival of several me-too as well as differentiated media-offerings, an economic-boom-in-the-making, and other such. Today typical eight-to-12-year-olds in urban India who belong to the higher reaches of the sec (socio economic classification) are aware of brands, conscious of their power over their parents, and empowered to take purchase decisions (especially when it comes to products and services they will end up using). And with cable and satellite television penetrating the hinterland, tweens in rural areas are pretty much the same, minus the spending power (for now).

There are two ways to look at this phenomenon. The first is to indulge in the sort of breast-beating that liberals are prone to, lamenting the loss of childhood for these young consumers. The other is to realise the inevitability of children becoming consumers in any country that is working its way up the economic-progression curve. The emergence of tweens as consumers is an opportunity for everyone, for the television channels that helped create the segment, for the companies that hope to make money, and for parents who can help their children learn all about consumption without becoming consumerist. That, the chance to create balanced individuals and balanced consumers, is reason for celebration.

Bearish Symptoms

After 9,000 it's only natural that the punters start setting new targets for the benchmark Sensex-12,000, and 15,000 for 2006 are just two of them. Such naked bullishness isn't unwarranted, but it isn't as if there aren't any dark clouds hovering over Phiroze Jeejeebhoy Tower, the headquarters of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). One particularly gloomy patch in the sky is courtesy the rupee's decline against us dollar, which has been a major worry for foreign institutional investors (FIIs), whose liquidity has been largely responsible for the current bull run. The domestic currency has plummeted by over 6 per cent from $43.48 in July to $46.21 in December (at the time of writing). Going forward, the growing current account as well as trade deficit, coupled with a strengthening dollar, will put pressure on the rupee. In fact, if the forex kitty has been swelling up, it's thanks almost entirely to FII inflows, rather than foreign direct investments. Experts point out that with the economy growing at over 8 per cent, the current account deficit, which stood at $6.2 billion (Rs 27,900 crore) in the April-June quarter can only balloon in the days to come.

A falling rupee will naturally bring down the returns of FIIs investing in Indian market. Amongst the BRIC countries, Russia, Brazil and China are running current account surpluses. Similarly, South Korea and Taiwan have current account surpluses, indicating a healthy currency situation going forward.

Yet another factor that is turning the tide against India is the measured hike in the US Fed rate from a decade-low 1 per cent to 4 per cent. With rates expected to go up to 4.5 per cent or a maximum 5 per cent, short-term speculative FII dollar inflows have received a jolt. The Fed rate hikes are boosting the dollar, as more Asian economies begin chasing the us treasury for higher returns.

According to Sebi statistics, there is hardly any growth in the FII inflows in 2005 as compared to 2004. The FIIs made net purchases of Rs 38,965 crore in 2004 while the net purchases so far have touched Rs 38,964 crore (till December 11). In the same period, the Sensex has jumped by over 35 per cent to 9,133.67 points.

What's more, globally interest rates are moving up which is also signaling a revival in the debt market; this results in significant shifts in asset allocation. In the meanwhile, India Inc is in expenditure mode, which could bring down the return on equity and the return on capital employed. The rising interest rates both domestically and globally will also put pressure on the margins. In fact, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore have seen upward movements in interest rates. Are the FIIs watching?

The Renaming Bug

Bangalore-bound: Or Bangalore Unbound?

There's much consternation, in some quarters, over Karnataka Chief Minister Dharam Singh's recent announcement that Bangalore would soon take on its original name, Bengaluru. Some of the protests have emanated from individuals worried about the impending obsolescence of the neologism Bangalored, a term they have apparently just learnt to use in sentences. Others are worried that India's #1 destination for it companies will lose some of its luster. Fact is, in democratic India, name-changes are a way of life. Some never catch on; New Delhi's attempts to get people to say Rajiv Chowk instead of Connaught Circus or Connaught Place have flopped, just as Chennai's attempts to get them to say Uttamar Gandhi Salai instead of Nungambakkan High Road. Others have fared better. Bombay is now Mumbai, Madras, Chennai, and Calcutta, Kolkata. All are changes that evoked a considerable amount of ire, and provoked the usage of reams of newsprint, just as the Bangalore-Bengaluru thing will. Yet, apart from the fact that the change in name has, in each case, been surprisingly accompanied by a fall in the quality of urban infrastructure, nothing much has changed. Mumbai remains India's commercial capital; Kolkata would like to think it remains its cultural one; and Chennai remains, well, Madras. If the Chief Minister of Karnataka wants to change the name of the state's capital, it is within his rights to want to do so. And if the Chief Minister of Karnataka wants to change Bangalore's name then, it is a move that should be applauded. This, after all, may well be the first thing the man has done for the city since he took over the reins of the administration in mid-2004. The importance of this decision also explains why Singh may have hitherto neglected Bangalore (the name-change must have been weighing on his mind). Now that he has got that toughie out of the way, maybe he will get on to the easier tasks at hand that concern such trivialities as power, water, pot-hole free roads, over passes, better traffic management and the like. Bravo, Mr Singh. It takes a brave man to opt for complete change.