THE TWILIGHT OF THE NATION STATE By Prem Shankar Jha Vistaar Publications Pp: 373 Price: Rs 480

Is the world really heading towards chaos? Prem Shankar Jha is quite certain that it is. And he has also zeroed in on who's to blame: the forces of globalisation that are fuelled by runaway capitalism, which, in turn, is inextricably linked to the neocons in the White House.

But this isn't just another book written by a bleeding heart us basher. It is one of the few ground-breaking analyses emanating from the non-western world and challenges many of the ideological tenets that most critiques of globalisation take as a given. Jha is always alive to the immense possibilities that the forces of globalisation and capitalism can potentially unleash. But he's also aware of the pitfalls. It is this balance through most of the book that makes it such a compelling read. However, at the risk of contradicting oneself, this reviewer must add that there are passages that border on the hysterical and read like an angst-ridden critique of us motives and actions.

The book's central premise is that capitalism developed in four major stages. The end of each stage was marked by unrest, war and chaos-each round more devastating and destructive than the previous one. Over the last decade, the creeping collapse of the Westphalian system, the gradual rollback of the welfare state (even in the West), the weakening of the nation state and the worldwide curbs on trade unions-the bedrocks on which all civilised societies have been built over the last 400 years-have taken the world from one crisis to another. The US, as the world's only superpower, has attempted to fill this growing breach by increasingly resorting to military power.

This has led the world ever nearer to the precipice. Will it tip over the edge? The author thinks it may, unless the forces of multilateralism can proffer persuasion as a substitute for unilateral coercion that seems to be the order of the day.

-Arnab Mitra

PROPELLING INDIA FROM SOCIAL STAGNATION TO GLOBAL POWER (VOLUME I & II) By Arvind Virmani Academic Foundation Pp: 419 & 485 Price: Rs 795 & 895

Few have attempted to lend a comprehensive quantitative underpinning to the trends in the Indian economy since Independence. The author does justice on this count, marrying economic theory with the available empirical evidence, and with rigour. The results of this labour are revealing. For instance, the trigger for the currency shortage crisis in 1990-91 turns out to be quite different from that conventionally agreed upon by economists, argues Virmani. He also provides strong evidence to show that the reform clock began ticking, albeit slowly, from the 80s and not beginning early 90s as a reaction to the currency crisis. Rather, the 90s witnessed an accelerated pace of economic reforms. Virmani's comparative analysis of the Indian and Chinese economies is indeed insightful and succinct. His ability to provide a holistic view, incorporating the behavior of institutional processes, is splendid and well researched.

The book is full of the author's attempt to capture comparative analyses on a scoreboard, and the Virmani Index of Power, or VIP, is a high point of this exercise. The index captures the economic and technological prowess of India, China and the us, among others, and draws various inferences including that of India becoming a global power in a few decades, provided issues like governance are addressed.

While the first volume of the two-part book interprets past events, the second one looks at the policy tasks ahead. For instance, the extent of integration with global markets. Virmani argues that the degree of integration in short-term money markets is far from perfect. He also goes on to show that the government effectively controls interest rates, notwithstanding its stand to the contrary. Clearly, Virmani draws from his experience in government as much as his training as an economist.

-Balaji Chandramouli