Several
companies are a happier lot today. Firms which borrowed funds
from overseas markets in early 2004 with a maturity period of
three years are now repaying much lesser in dollar terms, thanks
to a rising rupee. Back of the envelope calculations indicate
that these companies would have saved almost Rs 40 crore on account
of the rising rupee which has reduced their payout liability.
Between March and May 2004, $0.16 billion
was raised through loans with a maturity period of three years,
by India Inc. The average exchange rate over the three months
in 2004 was Rs 44.73 per dollar. Going by this exchange rate,
the value of the loans raised was Rs 715.68 crore. As against
this, the average exchange rate between March and May 2007 is
Rs 42.36 per dollar. Consequently, the value of loans being repayed
works out to Rs 677.76 crore, implying a saving of about Rs 38
crore.
Some of the companies that will get to ride
the rupee hike bonanza are Reliance Communications, Bharat Forge,
Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy, Nicholas Piramal and Watson Wyatt, among
others. External commercial borrowings are connected to the extent
of liquidity available in the domestic market as well as domestic
interest rates. Thus, with the rupee appreciating, these borrowings
will be far more attractive and will increase substantially.
Companies which have a huge import bill are
also rejoicing. Those not adversely affected from the currency
gaining are auto, engineering and aviation companies. Big companies
with huge order books in the auto sector such as, Hero Honda,
Maruti, Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland are benefited as the imported
price of their raw materials cost less.
Engineering companies like Suzlon also gain
on raw material cost savings. Jet is the other gainer on its aviation
fuel costs. Deccan Aviation management said that rupee appreciation
is having a favourable impact on the lease side. Jet Airways's
international revenues will get hurt but it has a natural hedging
in the shape of falling fuel cost. There will be more savings
on fuel, lease rentals, interest and depreciation.
The rupee appreciation has benefited the
domestic oil marketing companies (OMCs) as their procurement prices
are benchmarked to international product prices. At current exchange
rate OMCs are losing Rs 6.10 per litre on petrol and Rs 3.75 per
litre on diesel, whereas in first fortnight of May last year the
companies were losing Rs 6.51 per litre on petrol and Rs 6.66
per litre on diesel. The under-realisation on sale of kerosene
is Rs 14.75 per litre and Rs 170 per cylinder of LPG, compared
to an under-recovery of Rs 115 and Rs 16.13 on LPG and kerosene
respectively last year.
Foreign investors too, have another big reason
to invest in Indian stocks apart from the 9 per cent growth rate
of the Indian economy over the past three years. The rupee hasn't
just risen against the dollar, but also against currencies of
other emerging markets. As a result, returns from the Indian stock
markets in dollar terms are higher than returns from other regional
markets (in dollar terms).
Between April 1 and May 7, the Morgan Stanley
Capital Index (MSCI) for the Indian market is up 13.47 per cent
in dollar terms, although it has risen by a comparatively modest
6.7 per cent in local currency terms.
Thus, foreign investors putting their money
on the MSCI India basket of stocks have seen their holdings appreciate
by 13.47 per cent, partly because the price of these stocks has
moved up, but mainly because the rupee has appreciated sharply
against the dollar over the period.
In dollar terms, the MSCI India index for
the current quarter has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets
index as well as the MSCI Asia index. The MSCI India index has
also performed far better in the current quarter than for the
year as a whole.
For the foreign investors in particular,
who brought in US dollars to buy Indian stocks, the rising rupee
has doubled their returns, better than in 2006. Domestic investors
on the other hand didn't gain from the strength of the Indian
currency over the last few months.
The appreciating rupee against the dollar
has proved to be a blessing in disguise for gold exchange traded
funds (GETFs). Internationally gold is traded in US dollars and
since the rupee has been getting stronger against the dollar,
it has put the rupee value of gold down. The trading volume in
GETFs has jumped five-fold in the last one month. The total volume
of trades in GETFs has surged from an average of around 2,500
units traded a month ago on April 23, to around 12,000 units as
on May 21.
Thus, an upside of a rising rupee is that
many a domestic companies and foreign institutional investors
are benefiting. However, in the long-run a rising rupee will dampen
the growth in the economy. Foreign investors will remain as long
as growth is there.
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